The MLB slate is large tonight, and the MLB pick ’em lobby at Underdog Fantasy is bursting at the seams. Today’s top picks narrow the focus to five choices with an offense-friendly feel. In addition to props for three hitters, the two props for pitchers call for fireworks.
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Tuesday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Gunnar Henderson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Henderson rips the ball with the platoon advantage. According to FanGraphs, in 250 plate appearances against righties this year, Henderson has 11 doubles, three triples, 14 homers, a .257 batting average, a .532 SLG and a .275 ISO.
Henderson shouldn’t have trouble tapping into his power against Michael Grove. LA’s right-handed hurler has coughed up five doubles, two triples, four homers, a .345 batting average and a .586 SLG to 100 lefties faced this season.
Anthony DeSclafani: 2.5 Earned Runs – Higher
DeScflafani is returning from the Injured List (IL) tonight. He last started for the Giants on July 1 and could be a bit rusty tonight. Yet, even if he’s in his typical 2023 form, he’s a good bet to allow more than 2.5 earned runs. The veteran righty has allowed over 2.5 runs in nine of 17 starts in 2023.
The park factors could pose a problem for DeSclafani, too. Great American Ball Park has the second-highest park factor for runs (1.221). As a result, DeSclafani should surrender more than 2.5 earned runs tonight.
Luke Weaver: 3.0 Earned Runs – Higher
The hitter-friendly park factors at GABP won’t help Weaver pitch well tonight, either. Furthermore, the veteran righty doesn’t need any help pitching poorly. In 15 starts spanning 73.1 innings, Weaver has a 7.00 ERA, 5.62 xERA and 4.96 xFIP.
Weaver is also homer-prone, coughing up 2.09 HR/9. As a result of Weaver’s struggles in 2023, he’s ceded at least three runs in 12 of 15 starts this season and surrendered over three runs 10 times.
Ronald Acuna: 11.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Acuna is a nearly unstoppable force this year. In 423 plate appearances, he has 23 homers, 43 stolen bases, a .414 OBP, .260 ISO and 169 wRC+. The toolsy outfielder can pile up points from the leadoff spot against a below-average hurler tonight.
In 11 starts spanning 53.2 innings, Zach Davies has a 6.37 ERA, 4.64 xERA and 4.65 xFIP. He’s also struggled to control the running game, allowing seven stolen bases. Thus, if Acuna gets on base, he’s a legitimate threat to steal.
Matt Olson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Using Acuna’s and Olson’s listed props has the benefit of correlation. But Olson’s over for 1.5 total bases is an exciting standalone pick, too. In 313 plate appearances against righties this year, Olson has 12 doubles, two triples, 26 homers, a .275 batting average, a .630 SLG and a .355 ISO.
Conversely, the 138 lefties who’ve faced Davies this year have had four doubles, two triples, four homers, a .298 batting average and a .460 SLG.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
