MLB is back from the All-Star break tonight. The action is plentiful. Every team is playing tonight, creating a vast pick ’em pool for gamers to choose from. This piece narrows the selections to five exciting picks, mixing pitcher and hitter picks and higher and lower choices.
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Dean Kremer: 5.0 Strikeouts – Lower
Kremer is mediocre or worse and doesn’t strike out many batters at home. According to FanGraphs, he has a 4.57 ERA, 4.55 xFIP, 127 strikeouts, 7.44 K/9 and a 19.8 K% at home in 153.2 innings in his career. Furthermore, while he’s pushed at 5.0 strikeouts four times at home this year, he’s had over 5.0 strikeouts only once in nine starts in Baltimore this season.
The matchup isn’t easy, either. The Marlins have a 22.0 K% against righties this year. They have had a 20.6 K% in the previous 14 days. And Miami has a 22.5 K% on the road in 2023. Thus, Kremer is unlikely to buck his trend of striking out 5.0 or fewer batters at home in tonight’s matchup against the Marlins.
Graham Ashcraft: 24.5 Fantasy Points – Lower
Ashcraft is a trainwreck at home. In 100.1 innings at Great American Ball Park, Ashcraft has a 6.10 ERA, 4.50 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP and 16.0 K%. Additionally, he’s not a workhorse. As a result, Ashcraft has only seven quality starts in 16 turns this year. So, even in a good matchup, Ashcraft is unlikely to surpass 24.5 fantasy points.
Ronald Acuna: 10.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Acuna is a monster against righties. In 85 games and 322 plate appearances against them this year, he has 21 doubles, one triple, 16 homers, 32 stolen bases, a .407 OBP, .249 ISO and 165 wRC+. The toolsy outfielder also has a track record of raking against righties at home. In 530 plate appearances against righties at Truist Park since 2021, Acuna has had 30 doubles, two triples, 23 homers, 37 stolen bases, a .389 OBP, .229 ISO and 144 wRC+.
Conversely, Michael Kopech is lousy against righties. The 204 righties who’ve faced Kopech this year have had eight doubles, 11 homers, a .460 SLG and .342 wOBA. Therefore, Kopech is unlikely to slow down Acuna.
Austin Riley: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Kopech won’t just struggle with Acuna. He’ll have his hands full with the entirety of Atlanta’s lineup, including Riley. Atlanta’s third baseman rips the cover off the ball against righties at home. In 672 plate appearances against righties at home since 2021, Riley has had 31 doubles, 35 homers, a .289 batting average, .513 SLG, .224 ISO and 7.4 BB%. Riley’s low walk rate is ideal for having over 1.5 total bases tonight since he needs to put the ball in play to hit his prop, and taking a free pass won’t help.
Wander Franco: 0.5 Batter Strikeouts – Lower
Franco is tough to strike out. In 379 plate appearances this year, he has a 13.5 K%. Furthermore, he’s struck out in only 37 of 84 starts.
The matchup isn’t imposing for him tonight, either. Alec Marsh has 10 strikeouts, a 23.8 K% and a below-average 10.8 SwStr% in two starts spanning 9.0 innings for the Royals. Kansas City’s bullpen is also unlikely to strike out Franco. The Royals traded Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers, removing a strikeout stud from their bullpen. Chapman made his last appearance for the Royals on June 29. And since June 30, Kansas City’s relievers have had the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (17.0 K%).
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.