Is Travis Kelce Worth the 1.01 Draft Pick? (2023 Fantasy Football)

There are three things guaranteed in life – death, taxes, and Travis Kelce being an elite fantasy tight end. Last year the Kansas City Chiefs superstar was the TE1, averaging 15.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. He averaged four more points per game than any other tight end in 2022.

Following his dominance last year, Kelce has an ADP of 6.3 on Underdog Fantasy as the sixth player off the board. Mark Andrews is the next closest tight end with an ADP of 29.8, going nearly two rounds later than Kelce.

While no one will argue that the future Hall of Famer is worthy of a first-round pick this year, should fantasy players draft Kelce with the 1.01 pick?

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Is Travis Kelce Worth the 1.01 Pick?

Past Production

After playing only one special teams snap as a rookie, Kelce became a fantasy superstar. The veteran has never ended the year lower than the TE8 in any season since his rookie season. Furthermore, Kelce has averaged at least 9.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game every year.

More importantly, the future Hall of Famer has been a consistent top-two tight end for the past seven years. He finished as the TE1 five times, including four of the past five seasons. Kelce has averaged 8.6 targets and 14.1 fantasy points per game over the past seven years. Furthermore, the superstar averaged over 15 fantasy points per game in three of the past five seasons.

Meanwhile, the two years he didn’t finish as the TE1, Kelce was the TE2 both years, averaging only one point per game fewer than the TE1 those seasons. The superstar saw at least 117 targets each of the past seven years. Furthermore, Kelce has totaled at least eight receiving touchdowns in five or the past six years, including three straight.

Kelce vs. Other Tight Ends

Over the past seven years, Kelce has been a near-fantasy cheat code for fantasy players. However, his production has taken another step since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback. The future Hall of Fame tight end has ended the year the TE1 four of the five years Mahomes has been the starter.

While he has consistently been the TE1 over the past several years, how much of an advantage do fantasy players get with Kelce over every other tight end?

In the four years that the future Hall of Famer ended the season as the TE1, he averaged 2.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game more than any other tight end. Furthermore, Kelce averaged 5.5 points per game more than the TE5 over those four years.

There is no doubt that Kelce is clearly the TE1 and should keep that title until he retires. However, is the superstar tight end worthy of the 1.01 pick? Should fantasy players draft him over an elite running back or wide receiver?

Kelce vs. the Elite RBs & WRs

While Kelce is consistently the top fantasy tight end, how does he stack up against the elite running backs and wide receivers? The superstar was the TE2 in 2021, scoring 216.8 half-point PPR fantasy points. He would have been the RB8 and the WR10 that season. Yet, that wasn’t his lowest running back and wide receiver finish in the past five years.

Kelce scored 205.8 fantasy points in 2019. While he was the TE1 that year, the future Hall of Famer would have ended the season as the RB14 and the WR12. However, Patrick Mahomes missed two games that year with an injury. Yet, Kelce still would have been the RB14 and only the WR9 if you adjusted his stats for those two contests.

How does the superstar compare against the top running backs and wide receivers in 2022? Last year Kelce scored 261.3 fantasy points, 88.9 more than any other tight end. However, the future Hall of Famer would have ended the season as the RB6 and the WR5, finishing 6.6 fantasy points behind Nick Chubb (RB5) and only 1.3 points behind Stefon Diggs (WR4).

However, Kelce didn’t score anywhere the same fantasy points as the top three running backs and wide receivers. Last year the top three scoring running backs were Austin Ekeler (319.2), Christian McCaffrey (313.9), and Josh Jacobs (301.8). Meanwhile, the top three wide receivers were Justin Jefferson (304.7), Tyreek Hill (287.7), and Davante Adams (285.5). Even in the best year of his carer (2020), Kelce didn’t score enough fantasy points to end the season as a top-three running back or wide receiver.

The Gap Between 1.01 & the 2/3 Turn

The superstar tight end hasn’t scored enough fantasy points any year of his career to equate to a top-three running back or wide receiver finish. However, should that stop fantasy players from taking Kelce with the 1.01 pick?

Justin Jefferson has the highest ADP on Underdog Fantasy (1.1), while Christian McCaffrey has the highest ADP among running backs (4.4). Last year Jefferson scored 304.7 half-point PPR fantasy points, while McCaffrey scored 313.9 fantasy points.

If fantasy players take Kelce with the 1.01 selection, they won’t be on the clock again until the 24th and 25th overall picks. The running backs with an ADP between 22 and 27 are Tony Pollard (22.2), Derrick Henry (24.8), and Rhamondre Stevenson (26.4). Those three running backs all finished top 11 in half-point PPR scoring last year, averaging 243.4 fantasy points for the season. That total would have been the RB7 in 2022. Meanwhile, the only wide receiver with an ADP between 22 and 27 is Tee Higgins (22.2). He was the WR17, scoring 183.9 fantasy points last year.

Conclusion

Ultimately it’s a matter of preference. Some fantasy players would rather pay the first-round pick price and draft Kelce. Meanwhile, others would rather wait till the double-digit rounds and look for this year’s breakout candidate.

While the superstar has never scored enough fantasy points to end the season as a top-three running back or wide receiver, the consistent advantage at the tight end position can’t be understated. Meanwhile, Kelce has scored like a top-10 running back or wide receiver in four of the past five years.

However, what fantasy players pass up by taking Kelce with the top pick is the chance to land an elite wide receiver or running back. Ironically, Underdog’s ADP suggests fantasy players can still land a top-12 running back on the 2/3 turn. Unfortunately, wide receivers are going off the board earlier this year than in the past.

Fantasy players should only consider Kelce with the 1.01 pick if they use a Zero-WR draft strategy. While the top-end talent drops off quickly, there has never been more depth at the wide receiver position. Last year, 30 qualifying wide receivers averaged 10.2 or more half-point PPR fantasy points per game.

I love having Kelce on my roster. The ability to use one draft pick on the tight end position and know I have the advantage every week is very appealing. However, passing up the chance to draft Justin Jefferson or an elite running back is difficult. While the superstar is worthy of a top-five selection, I can’t justify using the 1.01 pick on Kelce.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.