Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. Let’s take a look at our predictions for third-year players. And below is a closer look at a few players entering their third NFL seasons.
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Fantasy Football Third-Year Player Predictions
Here are 2023 fantasy football outlooks for third-year players.
Will Trey Lance be a starter when the 49ers kick off the 2023 season? It seems likely that he’ll compete with Brock Purdy for the starter’s job (assuming Purdy’s elbow has healed by late summer), and it’s possible 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will put his thumb on the scale for Purdy after the seventh-round pick from Iowa State helped guide the Niners into the playoffs. The 49ers have added Sam Darnold to the mix as well. Lance is a dangerous runner with ample arm talent, and this will be his age-23 season, so there’s plenty of time for him to make good on the potential that inspired the 49ers to give away multiple first-round draft picks in order to trade up and draft Lance. But the North Dakota State product has thrown just 420 passes since high school and still has a great deal to prove. Lance could be one of the best QB values of 2023 or a complete waste of a draft pick.
-Pat Fitzmaurice
Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery’s flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty’s rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert’s 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team’s lead back.
In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards.
With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D’Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman’s flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it’s hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season.
Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there’s an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there’s a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields‘ own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs.
Fantasy managers also have to consider 4th-round rookie draft selection, Roschon Johnson. Johnson’s efficient rushing style, bell-cow size and pass-protection props figure to complicate the Bears backfield into a potential three-headed monster.
-Andrew Erickson
Damien Harris was originally replaced by human meat shield James Robinson on a monopoly money and heavily incentive-based contract, but J-Rob didn’t even make it to July before getting released. The low commitment suggests that Rhamondre Stevenson‘s role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 when he was the RB13 in points per game as the Patriots’ lead back. And even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the big running back finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs.
Recall that Stevenson’s strong campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not fueled by touchdowns. Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10, on just 6 carries. If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression with the red zone role all but his, he will build off a strong sophomore season as PFF’s 11th-highest graded rusher. It’s his backfield with little competition for touches in an offense that should be substantially better than last season.
Stevenson finished as RB1 in 44% of his games last season, which tied Chubb for 6th-highest at the position.
-Andrew Erickson
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