Rookies often carry unrealistic expectations into their first seasons in the NFL, but by the time they get to their second year, we have a better understanding of the player and how their team views them. With dynasty being a game where we always have to be mindful of market fluctuations, now is a good time to consider what will be a success or failure for these second-year players.
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2023 Second-Year Players
Sam Howell (QB – WAS): ADP QB28
The Commanders seem to be comfortable with the idea that Howell will start the season as their QB1. Their signing of Jacoby Brissett to a one-year, $8m deal does seem to suggest they want a reliable alternative though.
Howell was only able to force his way into the starting lineup in 2022 for the very last game of the season despite the Commanders missing their starting quarterback Carson Wentz for much of the season. It feels like a lot of projection to assume that Howell will now be a reliable starter with the only evidence being one game in which he completed 11 of his 19 passes for 169 yards and a touchdown.
Brissett is a well-rounded and experienced quarterback who coaches like. It’s worth noting that the Commanders have now been sold to new owners who might not want to see below-average performances after purchasing the team.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS); ADP RB 33
Neither Antonio Gibson nor Robinson did much in 2022 to convince fantasy managers or the Commanders’ coaching staff that either deserves the vast majority of touches over the other one. It does seem like the Commanders were convinced enough by the pairing to not need to add any additional running back of note at least for now.
Gibson profiles more as the receiving back. Robinson should enjoy a healthier start to this season than last and will likely be the ground-and-pound runner who sees the majority of the volume. If Howell is a competent dual-threat quarterback, then it could open up rushing lanes for Robinson to exploit.
Trading for Robinson will cost you a mid-to-late second-round pick. It’s not without risk, but sometimes risk brings opportunity. If you believe in Robinson, now is a good time to buy.
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