Late-round quarterback is a dying trend. No, not fantasy football analyst JJ Zachariason. He’s terrific and forever trending up. I’m talking about the strategy of filling your starting quarterback position with high-upside, late-round draft picks.
Fantasy managers are too sharp these days. Many understand that rushing upside and passing volume is essential in reaching the upper echelon of fantasy production. You might be able to snag some value in your casual home leagues, but the late-round quarterback strategy has morphed into the mid-round quarterback.
For a better understanding of the upside we’re looking for, take a glance at last season’s fantasy results. QB1 averaged 25.6 points per game. QB5 and QB13 averaged 20.5 and 17.8 points per game respectively. My elementary math tells me that’s a 5.1 PPG difference between QB1 and QB5 while there’s only a 2.7 PPG difference between a QB2 and a top-five quarterback.
This tells us two things. For one, we should be aiming high. The top 3-4 quarterbacks each year are true difference-makers. Second, if you don’t land an elite quarterback early in your drafts, you’re probably better off waiting on one of these QB2s with top-five upside.
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2023 QB2s with Top 5 Potential
Kirk Cousins (QB – MIN): ECR 107 | QB13
In the intro, I mentioned rushing upside and passing volume as two key factors in reaching top-five quarterback status. You won’t get much rushing upside with the first quarterback on our list. In fact, he finished with less than 100 rushing yards last season.
Despite those limitations on the ground, Cousins has top-five upside because of passing volume and an improving offense around him. We all know wide receiver Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson, but rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison replacing the aging Adam Thielen has the potential to push Cousins even further up fantasy rankings.
Now let’s talk volume. Last season, Cousins finished with the fourth-most passing attempts in the entire NFL. The only quarterbacks with more: Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes. Yeah, that’ll do.
If Cousins maintains a similar passing volume – and with Dalvin Cook gone, there’s no reason to believe he won’t – and Addison is as good-as-advertised, a top-five quarterback finish isn’t an outlandish prediction.
Geno Smith (QB – SEA): ECR 109 | QB14
Slotted right behind Cousins in the FantasyPros ECR, Smith is another QB2 with top-five upside. Unlike Cousins, Smith isn’t a complete zero on the ground.
His rushing upside isn’t anywhere near the level of the Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen‘s of the world, but Smith did rush for 366 yards last season. And his passing volume is better than you would expect from a Pete Carroll-coached team.
Smith’s 572 passing attempts were eighth-most in the NFL last season, ahead of the likes of Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers, and Jalen Hurts, among others. Smith also completed 69.8% of his passing attempts. If you throw out Bailey Zappe‘s part-time work in New England, that was the highest mark in the league last season.
Even if the regression hits and those numbers decline a bit, Seattle’s additions of Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet to an already solid offensive nucleus could help offset the drop in efficiency.
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND): ECR 140 | QB18
Now we’re cooking with gas. While the first two quarterbacks mentioned are borderline QB1s, we’re digging a bit deeper here. And if it hits, we’re talking overall QB1 upside.
If y’all are looking for rushing upside, this is the guy. This is your huckleberry. Welcome to the league, Anthony Richardson. Hope the expectations don’t weigh you down.
After blowing up the NFL Combine, Richardson entered the 2023 NFL Draft as the greatest quarterback athlete of all time. I know that sounds like hyperbole or an exaggeration, but it’s not. Richardson scored a perfect 10.00 Relative Athletic Score (RAS), which ranked #1 of 915 quarterbacks from 1987-2023 according to the great Ken Lee Platte.
To the surprise of no one, it didn’t take long for someone to fall in love with Richardson’s athletic traits and the rocket launcher attached to his arm. The Colts selected their QB of the future with the No. 4 overall pick and he’s widely expected to start over veteran Gardner Minshew to begin the season. If so, Richardson won’t stay at QB18 for much longer, so try to take advantage before the rest of your league catches up.
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