Players to Avoid: Calvin Ridley, Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett (2023 Fantasy Football)

July is almost upon us. At the end of the month, the NFL will open training camps and players will start battling for roster positions. That also means that fantasy leagues will be conducting drafts soon, so it is time to start thinking about which players are going to be on your team.

Wide receivers offer a ton of value in fantasy, especially in PPR leagues. WRs not only generate a ton of fantasy points with their yards and touchdowns, but they also deliver points with their receptions. The elite receivers tend to fly off the board early in fantasy drafts. Making the correct decision with those players can be the difference between getting into the playoffs and having a disappointing season.

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WRs to Avoid (2023)

Below are some of the fantasy wide receivers that I would avoid at their current Average Draft Position (ADP). It does not mean that I think they will be unusable in fantasy football this year. It simply means that I think they are not going to score enough fantasy points to live up to their current ADP.

Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)

I am a little surprised that Ridley is currently the 20th-ranked fantasy wide receiver and 44th-ranked overall player. That ranking is so high, that he is currently ranked higher than the Jaguars’ 2021 leading wide receiver, Christian Kirk, who is the 25th-ranked wide receiver and 53rd-overall player. Kirk was a very good receiver last year. He tallied 84 receptions for 1,108 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. He had 28 targets, 15 receptions, 130 receiving yards, and two receiving touchdowns in two playoff games last year. He was a huge part of their offense and he was the 11th ranked fantasy wide receiver for the season.

We need to keep a few things in mind about Ridley. He has a ton of talent and he is a great route runner. Nobody is disputing his physical tools, there is a reason he was a first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. He is also turning 29 years old this year, even though he is playing under his rookie contract, he is not a young player. He has been in the league since 2018 and he has tallied over 1,000 yards receiving in a season just one time. He has not had 10 touchdown receptions in a season since his rookie year. When he left football for personal reasons in 2021, he was averaging just 56.2 yards per game receiving and he had only two touchdowns. He was having a disappointing season for fantasy managers that drafted him in the second round as the sixth receiver off the board.

Ridley has a role in this offense and they are going to throw him the ball. I just do not know if they are going to throw the ball to him enough to be a Top-20 wide receiver that scores more fantasy points than Kirk. I think Zay Jones is the player that is going to have a harder time being fantasy relevant with Ridley on the roster, Kirk is the better fantasy option after a solid 2022 season. I would not use a fourth or fifth-round pick on a player who is now 29 years old and has not played a down of NFL football since early in the 2021 season.

Tyler Lockett (WR – SEA)

Lockett has been one of the more underrated receivers in the NFL over the last four seasons. Locket has averaged 116.5 targets, 84.75 receptions, 1,079.75 receiving yards and 8.75 touchdown receptions. He has been a Top-15 fantasy receiver every season, yet he was not selected for the Pro Bowl in any of those seasons. Last year, he was the 45th-ranked receiver and 108th-ranked player and ended up being one of the best values in fantasy football.

The issue is that the Seahawks appear to be phasing Lockett out this year and will likely move on in 2024. The Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. They did not do that, because they plan on keeping both DK Metcalf and Lockett in 2024. Metcalf signed a contract extension last year for $72 million. He will not be a free agent until 2026. Lockett is 31 years old this year and the Seahawks can save over $7 million in cap space by releasing him in 2024.

It sure looks like the Seahawks are going to see what they have with Smith-Njigba in 2023 and that is bad news for Lockett. I think he will have a few big games here and there, but there is no way that his targets are going to stay at the 110-120 mark if Smith-Njigba is going to also have a significant role in the offense. Lockett is likely going to see only 75-95 targets and that means he will probably see between 800 and 900 yards and five touchdowns. That is going to make it hard for him to live up to being the 31st-ranked fantasy wide receiver and 66th overall player.

Mike Evans (WR – TB)

Evans has been one of the most consistent wide receivers in the NFL since being drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back in 2014. Evans has been in the league for nine years and he has tallied nine 1,000-yard receiving seasons. He has been great in the red zone, scoring 81 touchdowns in 137 games. However, he was not a very consistent player last year. Three of his six touchdowns came in one game, a Week 16 contest against the Carolina Panthers. He only had three 100-yard games and seven games where he had less than 60 yards receiving. He was a very frustrating fantasy player for much of the season.

This year, he turns 30 years old and he no longer has Tom Brady throwing him the ball. Baker Mayfield seems poised to win the starting job, but Kyle Trask could earn some starts as well. Mayfield has not had a 300-yard passing game since Week 5 of the 2021 season and he has not thrown three touchdown passes in a regular season game since Week 13 of the 2020 season. Trask had nine pass attempts last year. The combination of Evans turning 30 years old on a team with a below-average QB situation makes Evans a risky pick as the 33rd-ranked wide receiver and 70th overall player. There are a lot of players with more upside than Evans in this rebuilding offense.