The 2023 3M Open is set to get underway from TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota as the next stop on the PGA Tour schedule. After spending two weeks in co-sanctioned events, including two consecutive links courses and the final major event of the season, golfers return stateside to compete at a course with a much different layout. It’s the fifth edition of the 3M Open, which was designed by Arnold Palmer back in 2000, earning a regular spot in the event rotation on the PGA Tour since Matthew Wolff’s inaugural win at -21-under-par in 2019.
Defending champion Tony Finau makes his return to TPC Twin Cities, finding himself in the exact position he entered the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where he wound up missing the cut a few weeks ago. Cameron Young, Sungjae Im, Hideki Matsuyama, and Emiliano Grillo are the highest priced players on this week’s DFS slate, while Justin Thomas is set to compete in order to shed his current slump and improve his FedExCup ranking for the upcoming FedExCup playoffs.
Despite the field being lighter than we’ve grown accustomed to watching in recent events, the 3M Open has quite a bit of value to acquire at DraftKings and FanDuel. Remember, we don’t need to spend all of our salary in order to create a successful DFS lineup. We’re looking for golfers who can sink birdies and eagles, scramble, hit sharp irons, and finish strong with their putters. Avoiding bad lies is paramount to success at TPC Twin Cities, which presents a myriad of challenges and hazards to overcome on a course that still manages to cede low scorecards.
Let’s review previous 3M Open winners ahead of some relevant betting stats, and a course overview, before concluding with the six players we should be targeting during our DraftKings and FanDuel lineup construction ahead of the fifth annual 3M Open from TPC Twin Cities.
2023 3M Open DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Primer
Previous Winners
- 2022 – Tony Finau (-17)
- 2021 – Cameron Champ (-15)
- 2020 – Michael Thompson (-19)
- 2019 – Matthew Wolff (-21)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Strokes Gained Approaching the Green
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Total Driving
- Scrambling
- Sand Save percentage
- Hole Proximity
- Birdie Average
Course Overview
TPC Twin Cities has water hazards on almost every hole, challenging players’ precision at all times, but there should be plenty of birdies and eagles delivered this week. As a par 71 that runs north of 7,400 yards, players who have been competing overseas during the past two events will need to alter their style of play to accommodate the narrow, doglegged fairways with dozens of shallow sand traps and numerous water hazards replacing the harsh, coastal winds characteristic of golf in the United Kingdom.
Four-inch bluegrass rough is grown out to punish errant lies, but it’s still child’s play compared to the fescue and some of the other rough we’ve seen at certain events this season. Instead of coastal winds and tiny greens, the Bermudagrass greens and fairways run much bigger and faster, measuring 6,500 square feet on average, nearly 1,000 feet bigger than other greens on the PGA Tour. Greens in regulation won’t be as meaningful as it is on tighter tracks, but total driving and strokes gained on approach are key, especially when attempting to avoid the water hazards on seemingly every shot. Players will also need to adapt to the fast-paced Bermuda greens, which were previously comprised of slow-paced fescue greens overseas, meaning putting velocity could get up to 13 feet via Stimpmeter this week at TPC Twin Cities.
Recommended Plays: DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Sepp Straka: $9,500
Sepp Straka is the undisputed king of birdies right now on the PGA Tour. The 30-year-old Austrian has produced 47 birdies across his last two events played, including his outright win at the John Deere Classic a couple of weeks ago. Straka ranks 14th strokes gained approaching the green, 57th strokes gained putting, and 18th total driving. He has missed the cut twice at this event, but also logged a T18 in 2020, so at just $9,500 on DraftKings, we need to insert Straka as a high-value blue-chip prospect, especially with consecutive finishes inside of the top two.
Keith Mitchell: $8,600
Following a T66 and missed cut during his first two appearances at the 3M Open, Keith Mitchell logged a fifth-place finish here in 2021. The 31-year-old American has only strung together one T20 finish in his last five outings, which include two missed cuts, so we’re getting a big discount on Mitchell’s upside here at $8,600. Yes, it’s a bit risky, but Mitchell is battling to stay inside the top 70 in the FedExCup, so expect him to bring his A-game at a course that he’s steadily improved at each time he’s competed. It helps to know Mitchell is ranked first in total driving, fifth strokes gained off-the-tee, and top 30 for par 3 birdie or better leaders, all aligning nicely with the demands of TPC Twin Cities.
Kevin Yu: $7,100
After dipping down into the lower salary ranges, Kevin Yu caught my eye. The 24-year-old native of Chinese Taipei has three T10 finishes this season, two of which have occurred in his last five events played. He possesses phenomenal touch off of the tee box, ranking third in strokes gained off-the-tee, while also ranking 11th strokes gained tee-to-green. Of course, he’s ranked sixth total driving, while his flat stick is a glaring weakness at 184th strokes gained putting. Yu also ranks second for greens in regulations, converting nearly 73 percent of attempts and ranking fifth in fairway proximity. Clean lies, accurate irons, and bounce backs following a missed cut signal Yu as a huge asset at a value in DraftKings lineups this week.
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Recommended Plays: FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Hideki Matsuyama: $11,600
Hideki Matsuyama has not been able to crack a T10 finish since The Players Championship back in March, however, he has three T20 finishes in his last five events, which includes a T13 at The Open Championship. The Japanese native is averaging nearly 68.5 FPPG on FanDuel, sinking 10 – 18 birdies in four of his past five events. Matsuyama had a rare missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, however, he’s 18/21 making the cut, while usually performing better on Saturday and Sunday. It helps knowing that he logged a T7 finish at TPC Twin Cities during its inaugural event back in 2019, so let’s invest and pay up for Matsuyama in FanDuel lineups this week for his high floor.
Doug Ghim: $8,900
Doug Ghim is a prospect that has me excited about his ceiling at the 3M Open this week. He’s logged T18, MC, and T16 finishes at TPC Twin Cities in three of its previous four events, plus he’s fresh after spending a week off during The Open Championship, which came after he missed the cut at the Scottish Open. Links golf is not the same stylistically, which can be difficult for certain players to transition to. We need to take advantage if Ghim’s low salary and insert him as a value into FanDuel lineups. He’s ranked 27th in total driving, including 17th for driving accuracy, plus he converts nearly 70 percent of greens in regulation. Prior to missing the cut in Scotland, Ghim had generated 17-19 birdies across four consecutive events, so he’ll be ready to end his mini-slump with another strong T20 finish at the 3M Open this week.
Chesson Hadley: $8,300
Chesson Hadley improved from consecutive missed cuts in his first two outings at the 3M Open, to a T58 in 2021, then climbing all the way into a 10th-place finish last year. The 36-year-old American only has one T10 finish this season, however, he’s delivered 15-21 birdies for us in four of his past five events, excluding a missed cut at the John Deere Classic. Hadley has been extremely volatile this season, missing 14 cuts out of 24 events, but most of these came during the earlier portion of the PGA season. He’s equipped with a solid putter, ranked 41st strokes gained putting, plus 38th in total driving efficiency. His hole proximity is 57th on the PGA Tour, while ranking 22nd in total putting. Yes, his irons can be shaky, but at this price, I’m willing to invest in Hadley, who is fresh off of his first T10 finish, logging a T6 at the Barracuda Championship last week.
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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.
