Overvalued Players to Avoid on MFL (2023 Fantasy Football)

MyFantasyLeague.com (MFL) is a popular destination for flexible and customizable fantasy leagues. MFL provides the following note about their ADP Report:

You might see some results that at first don’t make sense since dynasty leagues tend to draft earlier, and players of interest do not always match up with traditional redraft leagues. In addition, some leagues have scoring systems that are very skewed towards awarding a lot more points to a certain position, which would entice owners to pick players in that position (like quarterback) first, rather than more traditional scoring system leagues.

Just like I did with my ‘Best Values’ article, I’m looking at these rankings through the lens of dynasty leagues – for rookies and non-rookies alike. Here’s my reasoning for avoiding one player in each of these formats.

Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings

Worst Values on MFL

ROOKIE RANKINGS

Jahmyr Gibbs (RB2, No. 2 Overall)

Look, I get it. First-round rookie running backs are the hottest commodity in dynasty leagues. Is Bijan Robinson atop the rankings? Zero issue with that. But I cannot get on board with Gibbs in the second spot. At face value, that ranking for Gibbs among his fellow rookies makes enough sense.

There was a massive gap in draft slots between Robinson/Gibbs and the rest of the RBs, and this rookie WR class was widely considered an underwhelming group. In addition to that, when RBs are drafted as lottery picks, history tells us that typically translates to huge fantasy production. Before Robinson & Gibbs, here are the RBs picked in the Top 12 of the NFL Draft in the last decade with their fantasy football PPG finishes in Years 1-3:

Saquon Barkley: RB2, RB6, N/A (Injured)
Leonard Fournette: RB6, RB15, RB11
Christian McCaffrey: RB13, RB5, RB1
Ezekiel Elliott: RB3, RB3, RB7
Todd Gurley: RB6, RB23, RB1

That is some bankable production. But here’s the difference: Gibbs is an exciting talent, but he really shouldn’t have been a lottery pick – the debate over running back value aside. The Lions were on one Night 1 of the Draft; if there was any pick more shocking than Gibbs, it was Detroit taking an off-ball linebacker in Jack Campbell just six picks later.

I understand why you might assume that Gibbs will become the focal point of the Lions’ offense with this level of investment. Still, I really think that their organization just operates differently. They prioritized Gibbs as a replacement and a more dependable version of D’Andre Swift – NFL Draft trade value charts be damned.

When the justification behind the draft pick immediately turns to “well, he’s more than just a running back,” that’s never a great sign, either. Gibbs is indeed a dynamic weapon in the passing game, but unless you are playing in some bizarre PPR format, that’s not exactly the type of player that’s worth the second overall pick. As a 200lb outlier, you are basically hoping that Gibbs will become the next Christian McCaffrey if you are drafting him ahead of all QB and WR options, and I advise that you watch some CMC college highlights to jog your memory on how rare he was as a prospect.

For his upcoming rookie season, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Gibbs post numbers similar to Jerick McKinnon‘s 2022: around 60 receptions and 800 total yards. And honestly, as much as it sounds like a cop-out, I think it’s valid to project similar production for Gibbs’ Years 1-3 to Swift’s production in Detroit.

OVERALL RANKINGS

Austin Ekeler (RB5, No. 16 Overall)

This is where I remind readers that this article has a dynasty league focus. Because for the 2023 redraft leagues, I’m not talking anyone out of picking Austin Ekeler in Round 1. For now, Ekeler is effective enough of a runner to always remain on the field. He posted nearly identical rushing stats in 2021 and 2022: roughly 200 carries for 900 yards with goal-line dominance. I don’t expect Kellen Moore to mess with a good thing, either, so it’s fair to bank on similar production in 2023.

Ekeler can only remain a king of fantasy football for so long, though, particularly with his play style as a catch-first RB. At 28 years old, he isn’t a spring chicken for the RB position. And it’s not like the Chargers don’t realize this; they played hardball in contract negotiations with Ekeler this offseason, opting to add incentives to his contract rather than extend him. Looking into comparable cases in recent history rather than simply speculating about aging RBs doesn’t help Ekeler’s long-term argument, either. Since 2000, here are the other RBs at Age 27+ who caught 90+ balls in a season, with their fantasy performances in the following seasons:

Matt Forte: RB8, RB20, RB43
Brian Westbrook: RB15, RB54, RB49
Charlie Garner: RB27, RB96, N/A (Retired)

That cliff comes fast! The Brian Westbrook comparison is a good one for Ekeler, as an equally fun all-purpose player who was a Top 10 fantasy RB by PPG (Half-Point PPR) each season from 2004-2008 – including the leader in 2007.

But once Ekeler loses efficiency as a runner – and this will happen soon – then he’ll be tougher for the Chargers to keep on the field, and his fantasy value will collapse as a result. If you are an aggressive manager in dynasty leagues and figure you can enjoy Ekeler’s 2023 production, then sort out his replacement for your roster come 2024, go for it. But if not, there are multiple alternate options at RB who are younger and safer.

More Commissioner Site Value Guides

Fantasy Draft Advice MFL10 NFL Rookies Jahmyr Gibbs Bijan Robinson Saquon Barkley Leonard Fournette Christian McCaffrey Ezekiel Elliott Jack Campbell D’Andre Swift Jerick McKinnon Austin Ekeler