Tonight’s MLB DFS slate is relatively large. It has 11 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The picks in today’s primer have four starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
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- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Tonight’s MLB DFS slate is relatively large. It has 11 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. The picks in today’s primer have four starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
- Weekly Trade Value Chart
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The top pitcher tonight is a strikeout whiz in a dreamy matchup. The second and third pitchers on the table are approximately equal. However, the third pitcher is the best SP2 in cash games on DK because he's slightly cheaper, has better betting info and will likely be on a higher percentage of rosters. The second pitcher has a higher ceiling, making him an exciting GPP option. And the final pitcher successfully returned to the majors in his most recent start. One start doesn't erase his earlier struggles. Yet, he's worth a dart at DK in tournaments for his value salary.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. KC
Lopez has DFS-friendly numbers lately. According to FanGraphs, in Lopez's last five starts spanning 30.2 innings, he has had a 3.52 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 3.26 SIERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.1 BB%, 31.5 K% and 31.0 CSW%.
Lopez can dominate from the bump tonight in a mouthwatering matchup. First, the Royals are 30th in wRC+ (79) and have a 24.5 K% versus righties in 2023. Second, Kansas City is tied for 25th in wRC+ (79) and has a 26.8 K% in the previous 14 days. Third, they are 30th in wRC+ (77) and have a 27.6 K% on the road this year. Finally, per BettingPros, the Twins are -260.
Bobby Miller (LAD) vs. PIT
Miller has been slightly unlucky relative to his ERA estimators this year. The rookie righty has a 4.23 ERA in seven starts totaling 38.1 innings. However, Miller's 3.53 xERA and 4.05 xFIP are notably better.
In addition, Miller's pitch modeling is encouraging for better performances. He has a 119 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 109 Pitching+. Miller can put his best foot forward tonight in a good matchup. The Pirates are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (89) and have a 22.5 K% versus righties in 2023, 30th in wRC+ (74) and have a 24.6 K% in the previous 14 days and are 22nd in wRC+ (91) and have a 24.2 K% on the road this season. And, like Lopez's Twins, Miller's Dodgers are massive favorites (-250).
GPP Recommendations:
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. SEA
Since joining the Giants last year, Cobb has loved toeing the slab in San Francisco. In 125.0 innings at home since last year, Cobb has had a 2.30 ERA, 3.03 xFIP, 1.17 WHIP, 6.9 BB%, 23.5 K% and 62.8 GB%.
Cobb can hit his ceiling tonight against the strikeout-prone Mariners. Seattle has a 25.6 K% against righties in 2023, a 25.3 K% in the previous 14 days and a 26.4 K% on the road this season. As a bonus, the Giants are -150, and the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Michael Soroka (ATL) at CLE
Soroka struggled for the Braves earlier this year but turned it around in Triple-A. Fortunately, his return to the bigs last week was a success. Soroka allowed three runs on five hits (two homers), zero walks and seven strikeouts in 6.0 innings against the Marlins.
The homers were alarming. Yet, the rest of Soroka's line was rock-solid. He has a chance for another useful outing in a plus matchup tonight. The Guardians are tied for 21st in wRC+ (90) against righties this year. Cleveland is also tied for 26th in wRC+ (89) at home this season.
The game's total (9.5 runs) is slightly alarming. But the Braves are -160 favorites. So, Soroka is a viable bargain SP2 in GPPs at DK.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/LAD -250
The Dodgers were in a slugfest last night and can light up the scoreboard again tonight. They are tied for fifth in wRC+ (110) against righties this year, 12th in wRC+ (106) in the previous 14 days and fifth in wRC+ (116) at home this season. They'd be a challenging matchup for any righty, and rookie Osvaldo Bido has a 4.74 ERA, 4.15 xERA and 4.58 xFIP in four starts this year. So, he's a lousy bet to keep the Dodgers in check.
- Road (Progressive Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -160
Atlanta's offense is obscenely good. They're second in wRC+ (118) and first in ISO (.219) against righties. Moreover, they're unstoppable lately, ranking first in wRC+ (149) and ISO (.318) in the last 14 days. Cleveland's starter Cal Quantrill is a punching bag and shouldn't be more than a speed bump for Atlanta's white-hot offense to roll over. In 12 starts spanning 62.2 innings this year, Quantrill has a 6.18 ERA, 5.98 xERA and 5.53 xFIP.
- Home (Target Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN -260
The Twins are an affordable stack tonight, a welcome sight since LA's and Atlanta's stacks are expensive. Rookie righty Alec Marsh was torched in his first start in the majors last week, coughing up five runs on six hits (two homers), four walks and five strikeouts in only 4.0 innings. Marsh also had a 5.32 ERA in 11 starts (47.1 innings) in Double-A before flashing better results (2.40 ERA) in three starts in Triple-A this season. So, Marsh appears to be in over his head in the majors. Finally, Kansas City's bullpen is a great matchup for the Twins, too. The Royals have the second-highest bullpen ERA (5.06) this year.
- Ronald Acuna has a .412 OBP, .263 ISO, 171 wRC+ and 31 stolen bases against righties this year.
- Michael Harris is remarkably hot. In 100 plate appearances in the previous 30 days, he has seven homers, five stolen bases, a .400 OBP, .302 ISO and 189 wRC+.
- J.D. Davis hits in the heart of San Francisco's lineup, is an above-average hitter against lefties and has a favorable matchup tonight.
- In 187 plate appearances against righties this year, Jason Heyward has a .359 OBP, .233 ISO and 135 wRC+.
- Alex Kirilloff has a superb .415 OBP and 148 wRC+ against righties in 2023.
- Edouard Julien has a .360 OBP, .215 ISO and 135 wRC+ in his first 126 plate appearances against righties in the majors.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Dodgers and Braves are too expensive to stack in cash games fully. However, they have appealing options. Thankfully, the Twins have a few cap-friendly picks for all game types to offset the salaries of the studs. As a result, lineups in cash games have a stars-and-punts feel.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
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