Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is small. It has six games and begins at 6:40 pm ET on FanDuel and includes five games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings. The picks in this piece are reduced to two pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is small. It has six games and begins at 6:40 pm ET on FanDuel and includes five games starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings. The picks in this piece are reduced to two pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is lackluster tonight. But one of the game's most electrifying righties has the elite strikeout ability to top the list in a challenging matchup and environment. The other pitcher on the table has a bargain salary and a mid-pack matchup.
Starting Pitcher Recommendations:
Spencer Strider (ATL) at BOS
Strider will have to navigate the pitfalls of Fenway Park against a top-10 offense against righties. Fortunately, he has the dominant stuff to tame an offense that also thrives in its hitter-friendly home ballpark.
According to FanGraphs, in Strider's previous five starts spanning 32.0 innings, he's had a 3.38 ERA, 1.99 xFIP, 0.94 WHIP, 3.9 BB%, 41.7 K%, 33.7 CSW%, 120 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 111 Pitching+. There isn't an entirely safe pitcher on tonight's slate. But Strider can strike out enough batters to offset some blemishes. And, according to Betting Pros, the Braves are -160 favorites.
Jose Quintana (NYM) at NYY
Quintana isn't a flashy pitcher. But he was rock-solid in his season debut last week after beginning the year on the Injured List (IL). Quintana pitched five innings, holding the White Sox to two earned runs on six hits, zero walks and three strikeouts. The Mets cut him loose for 77 pitches. So, Quintana shouldn't face a stringent pitch limit in tonight's turn.
The matchup isn't terrifying, either. The Yankees are 14th in wRC+ (105) and have a 22.3 K% against lefties this year. And they are 17th in wRC+ (99) at home this season. The Mets are slight underdogs (+135). However, the game's total of 8.5 runs isn't scary. As a result, saving salary by using Quintana is appealing tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Astros are tied for 10th in wRC+ (109) against lefties in 2023. And they face a lefty at a convenient time. Andrew Heaney is on the struggle bus. In his previous five starts totaling 24.0 innings, he's had a 6.38 ERA and 4.91 xFIP. Heaney's also allowed an eye-popping 2.25 HR/9 in those starts. Even if Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez don't return as reinforcements tonight, the Astros are the top stack.
- Road (Oracle Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The A's aren't an enticing offense to entirely stack. However, using a few of their punt hitters together to open the requisite cap space for Strider and an Astros stack is a stellar move. Alex Wood has a 4.99 ERA, 5.38 xERA and 5.41 xFIP in 57.2 innings this season. And he's the most vulnerable against righties, ceding a .379 wOBA to them.
- Cody Bellinger against Lance Lynn is a match made in DFS heaven. In 189 plate appearances against righties this year, Bellinger has seven homers, four stolen bases, a .349 OBP, .189 ISO and 123 wRC+. Conversely, Lynn has coughed up a .402 OBP, .653 SLG and .441 wOBA to 244 lefties in 2023.
- In 559 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Kyle Tucker has had a .332 OBP, .253 ISO and 137 wRC+. Fortunately, Heaney isn't sharp against lefties. He's allowed a .324 wOBA to them this season.
- Chas McCormick has tallied a .384 OBP, .262 ISO and 166 wRC+ in 276 plate appearances against lefties since 2021. And Heaney has surrendered a .342 wOBA to righties this year.
- In 416 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Jose Abreu has had a .353 OBP, .207 ISO and 131 wRC+. He's also found his footing after a nightmarish start to the year. In 184 plate appearances since June 1, Abreu has had seven homers, a .321 OBP, .178 ISO and 113 wRC+.
- According to Baseball-Reference, Zack Gelof had a 1.097 OPS in 100 plate appearances against lefties in Double-A and Triple-A last year. And per MiLB.com, he had a .893 OPS in 78 at-bats against lefties in Triple-A this season.
- Aledmys Diaz should have an adequate lineup spot and has the platoon advantage against Wood. Diaz's 98 wRC+ against lefties since 2021 wasn't anything to write home about. But it's good enough on this small slate.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Astros have the most exciting hitting options on tonight's slate. And the A's give gamers some nifty punts to fit Strider and the Astros under the cap.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
