Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 14 games, starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s MLB DFS primer suggests three starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and four values/punts.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A handful of above-average pitchers get the ball tonight. However, a few of the most-talented pitchers have the least desirable matchups. So, the suggested pitchers are reduced to the three on the table. The first two pitchers pitch against one another tonight. Still, they're an excellent pairing in all game types at DK. The third pitcher on the table can chew up innings and has a sweet ceiling that fits perfectly in GPPs.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Bryan Woo (SEA) vs. MIN
Woo wasn't sharp in his big-league debut but has thrived since. According to FanGraphs, in six subsequent starts, the rookie righty has had a 2.20 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, 6.3 BB%, 30.7 K% and 12.5 SwStr%.
Woo has a high-strikeout opponent on the docket tonight. The Twins have struck out in 27.1% of their plate appearances against righties this year, 24.2% in the previous 14 days and 27.2% on the road this season. The betting info is also good for Woo. Per Betting Pros, the Mariners are -125, and the game's total is 7.5 runs. When including Woo's low salary into the equation, he's the top hurler on the slate at both DFS outlets.
Bailey Ober (MIN) at SEA
Ober is a stellar pick in the same contest, profiling best in GPPs on FD and as the other SP in lineups with Woo in all game types at DK. In 14 starts spanning 82.2 innings this year, Ober has a 2.61 ERA, 3.60 xERA, 4.33 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 5.6 BB%, 24.6 K% and 26.5 CSW%.
Ober has also excelled on the road. In 107.2 innings on the road in his career, he's had a 3.26 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 4.3 BB% and 24.8 K%.
The Mariners aren't a pushover. Still, they're a midpack matchup with high strikeout rates. The Mariners have a 25.8 K% versus righties this year, a 27.2 K% in the previous 14 days and a 25.6 K% at home this season. And while the Twins are +105, the game's total (7.5 runs) is good for Ober's DFS outlook.
GPP Recommendation:
Lucas Giolito (CWS) at NYM
Giolito is in good form. In his previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings, he has had a 3.19 ERA, 3.93 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP, 7.3 BB%, 26.6 K% and 30.1 CSW%. The 29-year-old righty has also pitched well on the road in recent years. In 225.2 innings on the road since 2021, he's had a 3.79 ERA, 3.82 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 8.4 BB% and 26.5 K%.
The Mets are in lousy form and non-threatening at home. First, they're tied for 20th in wRC+ (94) and have a 24.6 K% in the previous 14 days. And New York is 17th in wRC+ (100) with a 22.3 K% at home this year. So, Giolito has a ceiling tailor-made for GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
It's rarely unappealing to stack the Braves in 2023. This year, they're third in wRC+ (116) and first in ISO (.213) against righties. And Atlanta is tied for third in wRC+ (122) and first in ISO (.220) at home this season. So, gamers have a case to stack them against any righty at home.
However, Zach Davies is a delightful matchup. In the veteran righty's previous five starts, he's had a 7.36 ERA and 4.65 xFIP. Therefore, the Braves can tee off against him tonight.
- Road (Great American Ball Park)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 10.5 Runs/SF -135
The Giants have a slightly above-average offense by two meaningful splits tonight. First, they're 13th in wRC+ (103) against righties this year. Second, they're eighth in wRC+ (105) on the road this year.
San Francisco's case for stacking is significantly enhanced by playing at Great American Ball Park and facing Luke Weaver tonight. In Weaver's last five starts spanning 21.1 innings, he's had an 8.86 ERA and 6.12 xFIP. He's also coughed up 2.11 HR/9. And Great American Ball Park has the second-highest park factor for runs (1.221) and the highest for homers (1.518). The combo is perfect for the Giants to erupt tonight.
- Home (Wrigley Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: CHC -175/9.0 Runs
It's a rare opportunity for a stack against Patrick Corbin to be contrarian potentially. Yet, that's the case tonight. Other high-upside offenses in sweet situations could steal attention from the Cubs. Still, Corbin has had a 5.10 ERA and 4.78 xFIP in his last five starts and has been a punching bag for multiple recent seasons. So, the Cubs can crush him tonight.
- In 335 plate appearances against righties this year, Ronald Acuna has a .415 OBP, .262 ISO, 172 wRC+ and 34 stolen bases.
- Ozzie Albies is on fire. In his last 103 plate appearances, he's had seven homers, four stolen bases, a .347 OBP, .318 ISO and 145 wRC+.
- Jake Fraley has 12 homers, a .388 OBP, .223 ISO and 139 wRC+ in 237 plate appearances against righties this season. He's also stolen 13 bases against them.
- LaMonte Wade has a .429 OBP, .175 ISO and 150 wRC+ against righties this year in 266 plate appearances.
- In 188 plate appearances against righties in 2023, Mike Yastrzemski has a .353 OBP, .238 ISO and 131 wRC+.
- In 35 plate appearances against lefties in his rookie season, Miguel Amaya has a .457 OBP, .214 ISO and 175 wRC+. He's an acceptable pick on FD but featured in this section for his punt salary at DK.
- J.D. Davis is a good pick at DK but is included in this section for his sub-$3,000 salary at FD. In 251 plate appearances against righties this year, Davis has a .364 OBP, .152 ISO and 121 wRC+. Additionally, 180 righties who've faced Weaver this year had a .378 OBP, .631 SLG and .424 wOBA.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
Blending stacks or mini stacks of the Braves and Giants is exciting in all game types. And completely stacking the Cubs is a high-upside pivot in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
