Baseball games are littered throughout Independence Day. As a result, tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has five games, starting at 6:40 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer has three pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Tuesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Shohei Ohtani is notably absent from the pitcher rankings. He's undoubtedly a stud. However, saving money on pitchers is inviting tonight. Thankfully, the top option has a desirable ceiling and a drastically discounted salary from Ohtani. The second and third pitchers are also cap-friendly picks. The second is the best SP2 in cash games at DK. And the last pitcher on the table is a GPP choice on both DFS providers.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. LAA
Musgrove is in a groove entering tonight's start. According to FanGraphs, he's had a 2.70 ERA, 3.47 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 3.3 BB%, 22.3 K% and 27.4 CSW% in his last five starts, totaling 30.0 innings. The pitch modeling data was excellent, too. Musgrove had a 104 Stuff+, 108 Location+ and 105 Pitching+ in those starts.
Musgrove has also pitched well at home. In 224.0 innings at home since 2021, Musgrove has had a 3.13 ERA, 3.49 xFIP, 1.13 WHIP, 6.5 BB% and 26.6 K%. The matchup isn't perfect. Yet, the Angels have a 23.3 K% against righties this year and a 24.4 K% in the previous 14 days. In addition, per Betting Pros, the Padres are -115, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs. Thus, Musgrove is an excellent pick in all game types.
Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs. PIT
Sheehan has hit the ground running in his rookie season. In three starts for the Dodgers, he's pitched at least 5.0 innings and allowed three runs or fewer three times. And after producing alarmingly poor plate discipline numbers in his first turn, he's posted better marks in two subsequent starts. In Sheehan's two most recent starts, he's generated a 43.8 O-Swing% and 10.9 SwStr%.
The rookie righty can stay hot in a cushy matchup tonight. The Pirates are tied for 23rd in wRC+ (89) and have a 22.6 K% against righties this year. They're also 30th in wRC+ (71) and have a 24.4 K% in the last 14 days. Finally, Pittsburgh is 22nd in wRC+ (91) with a 24.3 K% on the road this year.
GPP Recommendation:
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. OAK
Skubal will make his 2023 debut for the Tigers tonight. The lefty pitched 14.2 innings in the minors this year. And in three starts spanning 9.2 innings in Triple-A, Skubal had a 1.86 ERA, 2.41 xFIP, 0.93 WHIP, 8.1 BB%, 35.1 K% and 11.9 SwStr%.
Moreover, he was stretched to 68 pitches in his final start in Triple-A, spinning four innings, allowing two runs (zero earned) on three hits, two walks and four strikeouts. Fortunately, Skubal has an inviting return to the majors tonight against the Athletics. First, Oakland is 25th in wRC+ (93) and has a 22.7 K% against lefties this season. Second, they're tied for 26th in wRC+ (78) and have a 21.3 K% in the last 14 days. Third, the A's are 23rd in wRC+ (90) and have a 23.9 K% on the road this year. In addition, the betting info is excellent. The Tigers are -174, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. So, Skubal can help DFS teams if the Tigers extend him from 68 pitches to around 80-85 tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Dodgers are an above-average offense by most splits. They're tied for fifth in wRC+ (111) against righties this year, 12th in wRC+ (106) in the previous 14 days and fifth in wRC+ (116) at home in 2023. LA has a good matchup tonight. Luis Ortiz has been extremely lucky this year. The righty's 4.11 ERA is markedly lower than his 6.78 xERA and 5.25 xFIP. The lefties on the Dodgers are in the best position to thrive tonight. Ortiz has coughed up a .481 OBP, .616 SLG and .467 wOBA to 104 left-handed batters in 2023.
- In 272 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, Freddie Freeman has a .412 OBP, .165 ISO and 144 wRC+.
- Max Muncy has tallied a .347 OBP, .278 ISO and 125 wRC+ in 196 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In 280 plate appearances against righties in 2023, Mookie Betts has a .371 OBP, .250 ISO and 142 wRC+.
- Jason Heyward has a .361 OBP, .232 ISO and 135 wRC+ in 183 plate appearances against righties this season.
- In 189 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Andy Ibanez has had a .317 OBP, .187 ISO and 117 wRC+.
- Oscar Colas was on a roll in Triple-A before the White Sox recalled him from the minors. In his last 106 plate appearances in Triple-A, he had eight homers, a .340 OBP, .286 ISO and 119 wRC+. Meanwhile, Chris Bassitt has yielded a .374 OBP, .582 SLG and .403 wOBA to 206 lefties in 2023.
Tuesday's Hitter Strategy
The Dodgers should hammer the Pirates tonight. So, their hitters are the most alluring choices on the small DFS slate. And since there are a handful of attractive punts, a stars-and-scrubs construction is exciting tonight.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
