Today’s MLB DFS main slate is small and has an early start time, featuring seven games beginning at 12:20 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s DFS primer reduces the best choices for today’s slate to three pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A locked-in lefty is the top pitching option on today's slate. He's followed by a high-upside pivot in GPPs. And the final pitcher on the table is a non-option on FD but a screaming value SP2 at DK.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Blake Snell (SD) at TOR
According to FanGraphs, in Snell's previous five starts spanning 28.0 innings, he's had a 0.64 ERA, 2.10 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 10.8 BB%, 41.4 K%, 37.2 CSW%, 110 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 105 Pitching+. Snell is white-hot.
His matchup isn't excellent, but it's not too shabby. The Blue Jays are tied for 17th in wRC+ (98) against lefties this year. And the betting info is a mixed bag. Per Betting Pros, the Padres are -120, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. The salary discount gamers receive using Snell instead of Spencer Strider is too significant to pass up in cash games. And Snell's ceiling is perfect for GPPs, too.
Michael Lorenzen (DET) at KC
Lorenzen is a rock-solid starter in a dreamy matchup but has the salary of a bum on DK. In his previous five starts, he's had a 2.60 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 1.23 WHIP, 9.0 BB%, 23.4 K%, 26.9 CSW%, 97 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 99 Pitching+ in 27.2 innings. Lorenzen's marks weren't flawless. Still, they were better than his salary would suggest.
And, again, the matchup is ideal. The Royals are 30th in wRC+ (77) and have a 24.4 K% against righties this season. They're also 28th in wRC+ (87) at home in 2023.
GPP Recommendation:
Pablo Lopez (MIN) at SEA
Lopez's 4.18 ERA in his previous five starts totaling 32.1 innings, left something to be desired. Yet, the righty's 3.39 xFIP and 3.25 SIERA were more indicative of the quality of his pitching. Lopez's 32.8 K%, 31.7 CSW%, 99 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 106 Pitching+ are also encouraging for his DFS ceiling.
The Mariners can help him reach his ceiling today. Seattle has a 25.6 K% against righties and a 25.4 K% at home this year. So, Lopez is an exciting pivot from Strider or Snell in GPPs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Mets have a top-10 offense against righties and a cushy matchup today. New York is tied for 10th in wRC+ (105) against righties this year. Meanwhile, Michael Kopech is ill-equipped to tame them in his recent form. Kopech lasted only 8.2 innings in his previous three starts, tallying a 9.35 ERA, 9.25 xFIP, 2.65 WHIP, 29.2 BB% and 16.7 K%. The Mets can destroy the White Sox today.
- Home (Citizens Bank Park)
- Value: Low
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/PHI -125
Corbin Burnes isn't a pushover. Yet, he's had a 4.55 ERA and 4.14 xFIP in his previous five starts. So, gamers shouldn't be afraid to stack against him. But since Burnes isn't an apparently good matchup, the Phillies might be underused in GPPs. And it's appealing getting the 10th-ranked team in wRC+ (106) since June 1 as a contrarian stack.
- In 242 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Luis Robert has had a .415 OBP, .279 ISO and 190 wRC+.
- Francisco Lindor has a .330 OBP, .210 ISO, 116 wRC+, 11 homers and 13 stolen bases in 294 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 242 plate appearances against righties this year, Jake Fraley has 13 homers, 13 stolen bases, a .384 OBP, .232 ISO and 139 wRC+.
- In 141 plate appearances against lefties in Jake Burger's career, he has 10 homers, a .338 OBP, .325 ISO and 151 wRC+.
- Francisco Alvarez is raking this season. In 242 plate appearances, he has 19 homers, a .306 OBP, .287 ISO and 129 wRC+.
- In 459 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Wilmer Flores has had a .338 OBP, .183 ISO and 119 wRC+. Flores is also on fire. He's had six multi-hit efforts, four doubles and three homers in his last eight starts.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Mets are a tantalizing stack in all game types against a struggling hurler. And the Phillies are a fun, high-upside stack in tournaments.
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Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
