Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is small. It has six games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer highlights three pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts as the top options.
Thursday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching isn't especially exciting. Still, a rookie righty in a cushy matchup is the most attractive pick. The other two choices on the table are in good form and have cap-friendly salaries.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. KC
Bibee has enjoyed more success than frustration in his rookie campaign. According to FanGraphs, in 12 starts spanning 65.0 innings, Bibee has a 3.46 ERA, 3.38 xERA, 4.27 xFIP, 1.26 WHIP, 8.4 BB%, 24.4 K% and 27.2 CSW%.
He has a Charmin-soft matchup tonight. First, the Royals are 30th in wRC+ (78) and have a 24.5 K% against righties in 2023. Second, Kansas City is 25th in wRC+ (78) and has a 26.9 K% in the previous 14 days. Third, they're 30th in wRC+ (76) and have a 27.6 K% on the road this year. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Guardians are -200. Thus, Bibee has a high floor and high ceiling.
Kyle Bradish (BAL) at NYY
Bradish is in a groove. In his last five starts spanning 30.0 innings, he's had a 2.70 ERA, 2.91 xFIP, 3.10 SIERA, 0.97 WHIP, 5.1 BB%, 28.2 K%, 28.7 CSW%, 130 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 107 Pitching+. So, Bradish's surface stats, ERA estimators and pitch modeling align and support his superb performance lately.
The Yankees are a decent matchup for him tonight. New York is only 20th in wRC+ (94) and has a 22.1 K% versus righties in 2023. They're also tied for 18th in wRC+ (99) and have a 21.7 K% at home this year. And, while the betting data isn't pristine, the Orioles are -125, and the game's total is 9.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs. NYM
Nelson doesn't have a cushy matchup tonight. Moreover, the game's total of 10.0 runs is terrifying. Fortunately, Nelson enters tonight on a roll. In his last five starts spanning 29.0 innings, he's had a 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 22.1 K%, 26.3 CSW%, 101 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 104 Pitching+.
Sadly, Nelson's 4.79 xFIP and 4.45 SIERA were less flattering. The game's total and mediocre ERA estimators are why Nelson's relegated to GPP consideration only. Still, he's pitched well enough to take a shot on in tournaments at his cap-friendly salary.
Top Lineup Stack
The Rangers crush righties. They're tied for second in wRC+ (118) against them this year. They're hot, too, ranking third in wRC+ (129) in the previous 14 days. And Texas rakes on the road, ranking sixth in wRC+ (106) on the road this year. They can tee off on a young righty who hasn't pitched well in his hitter-friendly ballpark. In 65.1 innings at home in Kutter Crawford's career, he's had a 5.37 ERA and 4.62 xFIP. Crawford has also yielded a .321 wOBA to batters at Fenway Park.
- In 169 plate appearances against righties this year, Corey Seager has a .432 OBP, .278 ISO and 189 wRC+.
- Jose Ramirez has eight homers, eight stolen bases, a .412 OBP, .207 ISO and 156 wRC+ in 255 plate appearances against righties in 2023.
- Adolis Garcia has a .256 ISO and 123 wRC+ in 281 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year.
- Henry Davis ripped lefties in the minors. And he has a .412 OBP, .267 ISO and 174 wRC+ in 17 plate appearances against lefties in the majors.
- Ezequiel Duran is in good form. In his last 99 plate appearances, he has had five homers, one stolen base, a .333 OBP, .242 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- Rodolfo Castro has destroyed lefties for a .345 OBP, .286 ISO and 146 wRC+ in 220 plate appearances against them in the majors.
Thursday's Hitter Strategy
The Rangers are in a blow-up spot at Fenway Park tonight and have high-end talent and lineup depth, making them the best stack and source of hitters. Still, the Pirates have a pair of awesome punts.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
