MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (7/16)

That All-Star break was a great time to recharge our batteries, but it’s time to get ready for the stretch run. Many of these teams are approaching the 100-game mark, meaning every game matters from here on out. Teams need to make pushes and decide whether they’re buyers or sellers before the trade deadline. It’s also a Sunday slate, so that means almost every game is during the day. We’re going to fade the Sunday Night Game, the Coors game, and the morning game, but there’s still plenty to talk about in the other 12 matchups!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

Yesterday’s pitching slate was stacked, but this one is taking a step back. We had trouble limiting it to four pitchers yesterday, but finding four pitchers we wanted today was challenging. Some of the rotations haven’t even been set yet, and that’s another infuriating aspect after the All-Star break. We’re pretty sure these four guys will toe the rubber, so let’s start with one of the biggest surprises in the AL!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Zach Eflin (TB) at KC

We thought Eflin would pitch yesterday, but the delayed rotation announcement and rainout had us scrambling. We’re going right back to him, though, because he’s been one of the best pitchers in the AL. The right-hander has a 3.25 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, scoring at least 18 FanDuel points in every start this season. He has at least 28 fantasy points in 14 of 17 starts and should reach that at ease against Kansas City. The Royals rank bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA. Don’t overlook the fact that Eflin is a -210 favorite in this matchup!

Joe Ryan (MIN) at OAK

We want Ryan against anyone, but he’s impossible to fade against Oakland. The A’s have the worst offense in baseball, ranked last in runs scored, OBP, and xWOBA since the start of last year. That’s terrifying against a breakout pitcher like Ryan, registering a 3.70 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 10.4 K/9 rate. We also don’t mind that he’s a -200 favorite in a game with a 7.5-run total!

GPP Recommendations:

Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs. MIA

Bradish was among the highest-touted pitchers a few years ago, and he’s starting to look like a post-hype breakout. The Orioles righty has allowed three runs or fewer in all but two starts this season, tallying a 2.52 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9 rate across his last 11 starts. That’s the best stretch of his career, and it looks even better since he has at least 39 FanDuel points in four straight fixtures. A matchup with Miami only adds to his value, with the Marlins ranked 22nd in runs scored.

Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. DET

This youngster has been impressive for the M’s, generating a 3.97 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Two starts against NY and Texas have inflated those excellent averages, with Bryce accumulating a 1.90 ERA and 0.67 WHIP across his other nine games. The Tigers have developed into one of the best matchups in baseball. This team ranks bottom four in OBP, runs scored, OPS, wOBA, and K rate. All of that has him entering this magical matchup as a -180 favorite!

Top Lineup Stacks

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Adrian Houser)

• Home (Great American Ballpark)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/CIN -130

Houser’s 3.68 ERA might look promising on the surface, but a 1.54 WHIP is more indicative of how much he’s struggled. That’s one of the worst WHIPs in the league, and there’s no chance he keeps Cincy off the bases in a hitter’s haven like Great American Smallpark. The Reds rank Top 5 in almost every offensive category since adding Elly De La Cruz to the lineup three weeks ago.

Tampa Bay Rays (vs. Brady Singer or Jordan Lyles)

• Road (Kauffman Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/TB -210

We had the Rays in here yesterday, and we’re going right back to the well. Tampa is Top 3 in almost every offensive category, and they continue to be a good value in DFS with so many cheap players spread throughout their lineup. That won’t sit well for Brady Singer, who’s been out of tune behind his 5.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. It looks like Lyles could start here after missing out yesterday due to the rainout, and we’d obviously love to stack against him after what we wrote up yesterday.

Minnesota Twins (vs. JP Sears)

• Road (Oakland Coliseum)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/MIN -200

The A’s have some embarrassing statistics on both sides of the diamond, but their pitching is beyond pitiful. They rank last in ERA and WHIP, sending out youngsters to get blown up every night. Those tanking ways should benefit a talented lineup like the Twins because they have plenty of bats who can annihilate this atrocious A’s pitching staff.

Core Studs

• Acuna could be in this section every day. He’s the highest-scoring player in fantasy, ranked near the top of the league in runs, batting average, and steals. This matchup with Dylan Cease is far from concerning, with the White Sox pitcher posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
• De La Cruz is right there with Acuna in fantasy points per game, establishing himself as one of the best players in DFS in his rookie season. EDLC is averaging over 12 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 15 FanDuel points in five of his last seven outings. We already discussed how Houser has a WHIP above 1.50, and you know Elly will steal at least one bag when he gets on base.
• Vlad just took down the Home Run Derby, and it looks like he’s also finding his home run stroke in real games. Guerrero has a .343 OBP, .578 SLG, and .921 OPS across his last 16 outings. We also like that he faces an inexperienced lefty, with Tommy Henry totaling a 4.38 career ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
• Harper is amid the worst stretch of his career right now, but this stud will get going. He always sits around a .400 OBP, .500 SLG, and .900 OPS. We believe he can recapture that form here, facing a righty with a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP since his first two starts of the year. We love that since Harp has a .417 OBP and 1.022 OPS against right-handers since 2020. In 25 at-bats against Lugo, Bryce has a .440 OBP and 1.107 OPS.
• Yelich is quietly having a fantastic season in Milwaukee, picking up 11 homers, 67 runs scored, and 21 steals. A good amount of that production has come recently, with Christian compiling a .421 OBP and .986 OPS across his last 31 outings. Ben Lively also gives Yelich the platoon advantage, posting a 5.28 ERA and 1.48 WHIP across his last five starts.

Value Plays/Punts

• The Rays always find random bats that go off every year, and Lowe is one of them. What’s made him so good are his sensational splits, sporting a .284 AVG, .500 SLG, and .821 OPS against righties this year. That’s why he’s always in the heart of this dangerous lineup, and we don’t care whether he faces Singer or Lyles with how bad both of them have been.
• Gorman has been terrible for two months now, but this youngster has had an incredible season. The Cards second baseman has 17 homers, tallying a .463 SLG and .779 OPS against right-handers this year. That’s all you can hope for from such a cheap player, especially since he faces Josiah Gray‘s ugly 1.44 WHIP and horrific career home run rate.
• The Twins gave Correa a monster contract, and he’s starting to show flashes of why. The move up to the leadoff start is what kickstarted Correa, collecting a .400 OBP and .833 OPS across his last eight outings. That tiny spark should continue since he faces the worst pitching staff in the league.
• Votto has really thrived since coming off the IL, picking up a ton of RBIs in front of these talented Cincy prospects. The former All-Star has a .343 OBP, .617 SLG, and .960 OPS in his first month back with the team. An OBP guy facing a pitcher with a monstrous WHIP is a recipe for success, especially since this is expected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the night. In 21 at-bats against Houser, Joey has a .467 OBP and 1.123 OPS.
• Burger doesn’t get on base much, but this guy can hit some Whoppers! The White Sox third baseman is up to 19 homers, generating a SLG above .500. What really adds to his intrigue is the fact that he faces a lefty, accumulating a .577 SLG and .899 OPS against southpaws this season. Kolby Allard is not a scary matchup, amassing a 5.99 career ERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Hitter Strategy

We had to pay up for pitching and find some cheap bats yesterday, but that’s not the case on this Sunday slate. We should be able to build a balanced lineup because we have great options at both positions. Our favorite lineups on this slate include the Rays, Twins, Reds, Brewers, White Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Yankees. There are so many players to pick from among those offenses that lineup construction should be a breeze!

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Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can start with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.