MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Sunday (7/2)

This is one of the best weekends of the season! There are so many great matchups, and it’s time for these teams to make some moves. We say that because these clubs need to make some pushes in the standings and in their locker room. These next few weeks will determine whether clubs want to be buyers or sellers before the trade deadline, and there’s no better time to make those decisions.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

After having nearly every top pitcher toeing the rubber yesterday, we were inevitably due for a letdown on this Sunday slate. We were still able to find four guys we love, but it will be the sort of slate where we want to save salary at pitcher and spend up for our hitters. We still love a couple of top-notch aces, so let’s start with those two!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Spencer Strider (ATL) vs. MIA

It’s funny that we mentioned that this is a weak pitching slate because Strider has been the best pitcher in the game since the start of last year. The Cy Young candidate has a 3.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP since the start of last season. More importantly, he has 348 Ks across 223 innings. That’s the best K rate among starters in that span, and there’s no chance Miami will slow him down. The Marlins rank 25th in runs scored and 26th in K rate. In their last matchup, Strider struck out 13 Marlins across seven scoreless innings.

Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. BOS

Who’s leading the AL in strikeouts? Yes, it is Gausman. I was surprised to see that earlier in the week, but it’s led to KG scoring at least 34 FanDuel points in all but three starts this year. If you take out those three stinkers, he’s got a 1.37 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9 rate. A matchup with Boston can be terrifying, but it doesn’t matter with how Gausman is pitching right now.

GPP Recommendations:

Tony Gonsolin (LAD) at KC

Gonsolin has been struggling in his last two starts, but he had a 1.93 ERA and 0.94 WHIP going into those. That would look flukey, but TG had a 2.14 ERA and 0.87 WHIP last season. That means this two-start stretch is a blip on the radar, and a matchup with Kansas City should clear things up. The Royals rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, and wOBA. All of that has Gonsolin entering this matchup as a -200 favorite!

Ranger Suarez (PHI) vs. WAS

Suarez was unbelievable in the 2021 season, and he’s starting to recapture that form. The lefty has allowed just four runs across his last five starts, totaling a 1.08 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in that span. He’s done that damage against some of the best offenses in baseball, and Washington is nowhere near that. The Nationals rank 23rd in runs scored and 25th in xwOBA. That’s why he’s a -250 favorite in this game!

Top Lineup Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies (vs. Trevor Williams)

• Home (Citizens Bank Ballpark)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/PHI -250

The Phillies were expected to be one of the best teams in baseball this season, and they’re starting to look like it right now. They come into this matchup winning 19 of their last 24 games, ranked Top 5 in nearly every offensive category in that span. Playing in a hitter’s haven like CBB is a significant reason why and that’s rough for a guy like Trevor Williams. The Nats righty has a 4.27 ERA and 1.35 WHIP throughout his career.

Cleveland Guardians (vs. Jameson Taillon)

• Road (Wrigley Field)
• Value: High
• Risk: High
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/CHC -110

The Guardians have been a terrible offense this year, but Tallion has been worse. The Cubs righty has a 6.90 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in what’s turning out to be a nightmare season. Those are some of the worst marks in baseball, and there’s enough talent in this Cleveland lineup to add to those atrocious averages.

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Brady Singer)

• Road (Kauffman Stadium)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/LAD -200

Singer was in tune last season, but he sounds like William Hung right now. He’s got a 5.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this year, despite going six scoreless innings in his most recent outing. We don’t anticipate him duplicating that against the Dodgers, with LA ranked Top 5 in nearly every offensive statistic.

Core Studs

• Ramirez got off to a slow start this season, but this perennial All-Star is cruising right now. J-Ram has a .391 AVG, .462 OBP, .772 SLG, and 1.235 OPS across his last 20 outings. He’s also got four steals in that span, reestablishing himself as the best power-speed hitter in the game. We also talked about how Taillon has an ERA just shy of 7.00, which puts Ramirez on his more favorable left side.
• Freeman goes on these month-long stretches where he’s the best hitter in baseball. The All-Star has a .336 AVG, .590 SLG, and 1.002 OPS since the end of April. That’s terrible news for a struggling pitcher like Singer, with Freeman posting a .419 OBP and .944 OPS against right-handers over the last three years.
• Harper is amid the longest homerless drought of his career, but we’ll bet on that ending today! This superstar regularly provides a .400 OBP and 1.000 OPS, which should be right around the corner. Getting the platoon advantage against Williams is an excellent way to kickstart him, with Harper producing a .420 OBP and 1.033 OPS against right-handers over the last five years.
• Vlad got off to a slow start this year, but this stud is starting to swing a hot bat. Guerrero has homered in three of his last seven games, tallying a .379 OBP and 1.149 OPS in that span. We’ve seen this guy do that for months, and it should continue against a pitcher with a 5.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
• Altuve returned to action less than a month ago, and he’s returning to the stud we know and love. The second baseman has a .452 OBP and 1.158 OPS across his last 10 outings. That looks even better when diving into the BvP numbers, with Altuve accruing a .393 AVG, .714 SLG, and 1.128 OPS in 28 at-bats against Andrew Heaney.

Value Plays/Punts

• It’s hard to recommend a player with a sub-.200 average, but not many players possess the power that Muncy does. This slugger has a .357 OBP, .486 SLG, and .843 OPS since joining the Dodgers five years ago. He’s also got better splits against right-handers, which is rough for the sliding Singer.
• Contreras bats third in Milwaukee’s lineup every day, and he’s one of the only catchers we trust. This guy has a .789 OPS since his call-up, totaling a .397 OBP, .542 SLG, and .940 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. It’s not like we expect Rich Hill to slow him down, accumulating a 4.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.
• Schwarber had the lowest batting average in baseball a few weeks ago, but he’s really turning his season around. The outfield masher is just shy of a 1.000 OPS over his last 24 games. This beast always seems to do that during the middle of the season, and the home run binge could continue against Williams. In 40 at-bats against the Nats pitcher, Schwarbs has a .400 OBP, .706 SLG, and 1.106 OPS.
• Naylor is one of the league leaders in RBI, and it’s hard to understand why these DFS sites aren’t taking notice. This first baseman bats cleanup for the Guardians every day, producing a .375 AVG, .605 SLG, and 1.014 OPS across his last 40 outings. We’ve also seen this guy generate a .850 OPS against righties throughout his career, and he’d be an easy stack with Ramirez.
• Nobody ever wants to use the Pirates, but Suwinski has been scorching for over a month. The outfielder has a .529 OBP and 1.113 OPS across his last four fixtures while providing a .357 OBP, 5.15 SLG, and .872 OPS since becoming a regular at the end of April. Colin Rea will not keep us away, with the Milwaukee pitcher posting a 4.57 ERA.

Hitter Strategy

We had too many pitchers to pick from yesterday, but it feels like we have too many hitters today. The offenses we want to use include the Rangers, Dodgers, Pirates, Brewers, Phillies, Guardians, Blue Jays, and White Sox. We expect all of those offenses to score at least five runs, and it’s nice that we also get to fade the Coors Field game. Our favorite strategy is to use the Guardians, Dodgers, and Phillies and then figure things out from there. All three of those offenses could be in for big days, and starting your stack with those lineups should allow you to pick whatever pitchers you want.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.