We’re finally at the All-Star break! I love the All-Star festivities, with the Home Run Derby being my personal favorite. We’ll have to wait until Monday to watch that, but we have two more days of baseball to discuss. These final days are always interesting from a DFS perspective because we tend to see everyone play. These teams know they have a week off, so running their stars out there to get a few wins is as important as ever.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
We’re finally at the All-Star break! I love the All-Star festivities, with the Home Run Derby being my personal favorite. We’ll have to wait until Monday to watch that, but we have two more days of baseball to discuss. These final days are always interesting from a DFS perspective because we tend to see everyone play. These teams know they have a week off, so running their stars out there to get a few wins is as important as ever.
Starting Pitcher Rankings
Starting Pitcher Strategy
This was a difficult slate from a pitching perspective. It’s easy to understand why because tomorrow’s slate is stacked! With that said, we still have four pitchers that we love, and three of them are left-handed! Our two cash game options are both reclamation projects, and it’s been fun watching these southpaws go on some stellar runs. Let’s start there!
Cash Game Recommendations:
James Paxton (BOS) vs. OAK
Paxton has always been an elite pitcher, but it’s just been a matter of keeping him on the field. That’s what we’ve seen for two months now, with Pax providing a 1.75 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9 rate across his last six starts. He’s also scored at least 36 FanDuel points in all but one of those, which should be his floor against Oakland. The A’s rank last in runs scored, OBP, wOBA, and xwOBA since the start of last year. All of that has Pax entering this matchup as a -220 favorite.
Blake Snell (SD) vs. NYM
Snell was horrid through the opening month of the season, but he’s been a different guy since then. The lefty has allowed two runs or fewer in eight straight starts, posting a 0.77 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 14.0 K/9 rate in that span. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball in that span and is impossible to fade, no matter who he faces. It’s not like the Mets have been mauling opponents, ranked 19th in wOBA.
GPP Recommendations:
Ranger Suarez (PHI) at MIA
Suarez has been unstoppable recently, allowing one run or fewer in five of his last six starts. Ranger also has a 2.09 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 rate in that span. We saw this guy post similar averages throughout the 2021 season, so it can be sustained for longer than this. Facing Miami is marvelous, too, with the Marlins ranked 22nd in xwOBA, 26th in K rate, and 24th in runs scored. In their most recent meeting, Suarez slung five scoreless innings.
Gavin Williams (CLE) vs. KC
The Guardians always seem to develop rookie pitchers, and they’ve done just that with Williams. G-Will had to face Atlanta in his third career start but brought his season averages to a 3.79 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. That’s unsurprising since he had a 2.06 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in the minors. This Kansas City lineup is close to a Triple-A lineup, sitting bottom five in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA. We also don’t mind that Williams is a -180 favorite!
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rangers have struggled over the last two weeks, but this is still one of the best offenses in baseball. They rank first in OBP and runs scored, regularly providing double-digit gems. One could be in play against a pitcher like Jake Irvin, amassing a 4.70 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Luke Weaver)
It’s hard to understand why Luke Weaver still has a job. Injuries to Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo have kept him in this rotation, but a 6.72 ERA and 1.59 WHIP make that tough to justify. That’s scary in a hitter’s haven like Miller Park, especially since this lineup has the talent to get to Weaver.
David Peterson has been a solid pitcher in the past, but he doesn’t have it this season. The Mets lefty has a 6.61 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in the worst year of his career. That becomes particularly scary against a team like the Padres because their three best hitters thrive from the right side.
Core Studs
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| OF |
Fernando Tatis Jr.(SD) |
$5,800 |
$4,300 |
| DH |
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) |
$6,000 |
$4,500 |
| OF |
Christian Yelich (MIL) |
$5,000 |
$3,700 |
| SS |
Corey Seager (TEX) |
$6,400 |
$4,200 |
| 3B |
Jose Ramirez (CLE) |
$6,100 |
$3,900 |
- I really wish Tatis played a full season because he’d be posting some Ronald Acuna-like numbers. In any case, Tatis has 16 homers and 14 steals across 67 games. He’s also got at least 21 FanDuel points in four of his last five outings while generating a 1.020 OPS against left-handers this year.
- Ohtani is on another planet right now. The two-way stud has 19 homers over his last 34 games, tallying a .448 OBP, .891 SLG, and 1.340 OPS in that span. Most players would die to have a .891 OPS, and it’s scary because this guy is also an ace on the mound. He gets the platoon advantage against Michael Grove as well, who’s got a 7.02 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
- Yelich has quietly had a resurgent season in Milwaukee. The former MVP has a .380 OBP with 10 homers and 20 steals. He’s been even better recently, amassing a .444 OBP, .516 SLG, and .960 OPS over his last 34 games. If we want to stack against Weaver, Yelich needs to be our first pick.
- Seager would be one of the top MVP candidates if it weren’t for the ridiculous play of Ohtani. The Rangers shortstop has a .355 AVG, .418 OBP, .605 SLG and 1.023 OPS. He’s also got 50 RBI in 55 games and is the highest-scoring player at the shortstop position. Not to mention, his OPS is above 1.100 when he faces a right-hander.
- Ramirez has been crushing recently and should have success against Brady Singer. The Royals righty has an ERA just shy of 6.00, with J-Ram registering a .565 OBP, .833 SLG, and 1.398 OPS in 23 at-bats against him. That’s treacherous since Ramirez has a .431 OBP and 1.094 OPS across his last 25 games.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS |
PLAYER |
DK SALARY |
FD SALARY |
| 3B |
Manny Machado (SD) |
$4,700 |
$3,500 |
| OF |
Jake Fraley (CIN) |
$5,200 |
$3,400 |
| OF |
Jarren Duran (BOS) |
$3,500 |
$3,000 |
| 1B/OF |
LaMonte Wade Jr.(SF) |
$3,800 |
$3,100 |
| 2B/SS/OF |
Ezequiel Duran (TEX) |
$3,800 |
$3,300 |
- Machado was horrible through the opening two months, but this perennial All-Star is starting to find it. Manny has three homers over the last week, totaling a .310 AVG and .881 OPS across his last 28 games. He’s also slaughtered southpaws throughout his career and shouldn’t have any problems against a lefty with a 7.00 ERA.
- The Reds have a lineup full of random studs, and Fraley is one of them. Over his last 20 games, Fraley has a .449 OBP, .700 SLG, and 1.149 OPS. We love that when diving into his sensational splits, sporting a .394 OBP and .923 OPS against right-handers.
- Duran is strictly a platoon player in Boston, but he’s a great option against right-handers. The Red Sox always bat him leadoff in these circumstances, with JD donning a .886 OPS against righties this year. He’s also got a .391 AVG, .674 SLG, and 1.078 OPS across his last 13 games. That won’t bode well for Paul Blackburn in Fenway Park, generating a 4.50 ERA and 1.47 WHIP.
- Wade has been a monster for the Giants all year. He bats in the heart of their lineup every day and has an OBP north of .400 since the opening weeks of the season. His biggest asset here is getting the platoon advantage against Connor Seabold, compiling a 6.62 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in a typical Rockies season.
- The Rangers have one of the best bottom halves in baseball, and Zeke is a significant reason why. Duran has his season average north of .300, providing a .322 AVG, .576 SLG, and .940 OPS since April 20. He’s one of the only affordable Texas bats, and it’s hard to understand why he’s so cheap.
Hitter Strategy
This should be a fun day to build lineups. We have a variety of pitchers to pick from, making lineup construction a breeze. The teams we want to stack include the Padres, Brewers, Rangers, Giants, Red Sox, Angels, Reds, Guardians, and Brewers. Those teams all have plenty of value bats to pick from, and pairing them with the pitchers mentioned above should be easy.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
