MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Saturday (7/22)

We’re right around game 100 for most teams, and it’s wild we’re that deep into the season. The opening month is always the most exciting, and then the dog days make it feels like the season will never end. That’s funny because it feels like the season is to close right after the All-Star break! That’s just human nature never to be satisfied, though, because we always tend to look at things in a small scope. We try to avoid that because the 162-game schedule is a marathon instead of a sprint, but we will sprint to the finish line in these closing two months.

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

Wow, this slate is insane from a pitching perspective! We have what feels like a million aces taking the mound, and the list of guys we’re fading is crazier than the recommendations. Some of the pitchers who missed the cut include Dane Dunning, Max Scherzer, James Paxton, Kevin Gausman, Logan Gilbert, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, and Christian Javier. While we like some of those players, the matchups and pricing don’t add up. With that said, let’s start with one of the best pitchers in baseball!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Shane McClanahan (TB) vs. BAL

The Rays have been one of the best teams this season, and Mac is a significant reason why. The left-hander has a 2.55 ERA and 1.00 WHIP since the start of last year. He’s also struck out 301 batters across 268 innings, allowing four runs or fewer in 35 of 37 starts in that span. A quality start should be guaranteed in a home start against Baltimore, with McClanahan allowing just four total runs in his last four matchups with the O’s, scoring at least 34 FanDuel points in all of those.

Logan Webb (SF) at WAS

Webb doesn’t get talked about much, but this guy is in the running for NL Cy Young. The Giants righty has a 3.11 ERA and 1.08 WHIP on the year but has been even better as of late. Logan has allowed just two runs over his last three starts, collecting 28 strikeouts across 22.2 innings. That run should keep going against Washington, with the Nats ranked 25th in runs scored and 28th in xwOBA. Being a -200 favorite isn’t too shabby, either!

GPP Recommendations:

Zack Wheeler (PHI) at CLE

Wheeler has been inconsistent throughout the year, but we love him in this matchup. Cleveland ranks 26th in both runs scored and xwOBA, posting one of the worst lineups in baseball. All this stud has to do is get through Jose Ramirez and Josh Naylor, which is in play since Wheeler has a 3.09 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over the last three years. He’s also scored at least 34 FD points in 10 starts this season and has even flashed an absurd 70-point upside.

Reid Detmers (LAA) vs. PIT

Detmers has been disastrous in his last two starts, but most teams struggle against the Dodgers and Astros. This lefty was unbelievable before that, tallying a 1.42 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 12.2 K/9 rate across his previous five starts. We believe he can recapture that form against this pitiful Pittsburgh offense, ranked bottom five in nearly every offensive category since the opening month of the season. We also love that such a cheap player is a -180 favorite!

Top Lineup Stacks

Atlanta Braves (vs. Adrian Houser)

• Road (Miller Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/ATL -140

We could use the Braves against anyone, but they will have a field day against Houser. The Brewers righty has been fooling people behind his 3.79 ERA, but his 4.70 xFIP and 1.53 WHIP are more indicative of who this guy really is. The regression monster should bite him hard against Atlanta, ranked first or second in runs scored, OBP, OPS, BA, and SLG.

Houston Astros (vs. Paul Blackburn)

• Road (Oakland Coliseum)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/HOU -190

We’ve been using offenses against the A’s all season, and it’s easy to understand why. This team has the worst ERA and WHIP in the league, with Paul Blackburn being one of those gas cans. The righty has a 5.48 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, allowing 10 runs in his two most recent starts against Houston. The Astros have been struggling without Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, making them a great value against the poor pitching staff.

Los Angeles Angels (vs. Osvaldo Bido)

• Home (Angel Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/LAA -180

We don’t know much about Bido, but any fill-in for a team this bad needs to be stacked against. Throughout his Triple-A career, Bido was blasted to the tune of a 4.70 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. That’s what we’ve seen at this level, compiling a 5.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP through his first six starts. A team like LA has plenty of bats to add to those atrocious averages, especially since they’re averaging 6.7 runs across their last eight games.

Core Studs

• Acuna is having a historical season atop this Atlanta lineup. He leads all players with over 12 DraftKings points per game, providing runs, home runs, and steals at an elite pace. He’s also got an OBP well north of .400 and should get on base multiple times against a pitcher with a 1.51 WHIP.
• We just talked about how bad Bido has been throughout his career, and he’ll have trouble with a stud like Ohtani. The AL MVP frontrunner leads the league with 35 homers, doing a ton of that damage recently. Over his last 60 games, Ohtani has a .417 OBP, .775 SLG, and 1.192 OPS. He’s also got a 1.109 OPS against righties and can’t be faded in such a tasty matchup.
• The injury bug has bitten the Stros, but Tucker continues to rake in the heart of their lineup. The All-Star has 17 homers and 17 steals, generating a .439 OBP, .642 SLG, and 1.081 OPS across his last 36 games. Tuck has also totaled nine steals in that span and gets the platoon advantage against Blackburn after homering three times on Friday!
• Marte has quietly had a monster season in Arizona. His absurd splits make him so dangerous, sporting a .386 OBP and .949 OPS against southpaws over the last three years. That pairs beautifully with his form, accruing a .385 OBP and .922 OPS across his last 52 games. We’re not worried about a pitcher like Brandon Williamson, amassing a 4.96 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. We wrote this up before Marte’s two homers on Friday, and that obviously adds to his value.
• Mookie has been one of the best players in baseball over the last decade, and he’s a safe option on every slate. Over his last 68 games, Betts has a .381 OBP, .628 SLG and 1.019 OPS. That’s not far off of his phenomenal season-long averages, and facing a regression candidate with a 4.62 xFIP could keep him rolling.

Value Plays/Punts

• The Rays find random bats every year, and Lowe is another diamond in the rough. What’s made him so special are his splits, tallying a .284 AVG, .504 SLG and .826 OPS against right-handers. We also don’t mind that Lowe has a .957 OPS across his last six games, facing a rookie pitcher with a 7.33 ERA and 1.75 WHIP.
• Wade has been one of the critical pieces to this shocking San Fran team. Late Night LaMonte has been dicing in the heart of their order all year, providing a .405 OBP and .837 OPS. He’s also got a .422 OBP and .876 OPS against righties, which is fantastic since he faces a pitcher with a 1.47 WHIP.
• Walker has been one of the best first basemen in the NL, and it’s hard to understand why he’s not more expensive. The slugger always finishes with 30 home runs, accumulating a .382 OBP, .600 SLG, and .982 OPS across his last 33 fixtures. He also benefits from facing a weak lefty and makes for a sexy stack with Marte.
• It’s been a nightmare season for Abreu in Houston, but he’s showing flashes over the last two months. The former All-Star has a .291 AVG and .829 OPS over his last 33 games. That’s all you can ask for from such an affordable player, and it’s not like we anticipate the A’s to slow him down.
• Moose has been traveling from team to team over recent years, but he’s found a home in Los Angeles. The third baseman has a .892 OPS over his last eight outings. It’s hard to find such a cheap player who’s performing like that, especially since Moose did this for years. He’s also in the heart of this weak Angels lineup right now and is an excellent pairing with an expensive Shohei.

Hitter Strategy

This is a fun slate to build lineups. We already talked about how there are a dozen great pitchers to pick from, but things should be much easier since most of these hitting stacks are too cheap. We want to pair the Angels and Astros, then figure things out from there. We have plenty of value to pick from in those lineups, and it should be easy to pair those teams with elite lineups like the Braves and Dodgers. There’s also tons of value in the San Fran-Cincy matchup, which might be one of the sneakiest game stacks of the day!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.