It’s so crazy that we’re at the end of July already. That means the trade deadline is right around the corner! It also means the playoffs aren’t far behind, and it’ll be fun to watch these teams battle to get in. The Braves look like the heavy favorite, but anything can happen once the playoffs begin! We still have two months until then, so let’s look at this Sunday slate!
Starting Pitcher Rankings
| PLAYER | DK SALARY | FD SALARY | VALUE | RISK |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) at PIT | $11,000 | $9,900 | Low | Medium |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) at KC | $10,300 | $10,200 | Medium | Low |
| James Paxton (BOS) at SF | $9,900 | $10,400 | Medium | Medium |
| Logan Allen (CLE) at CWS | $9,000 | $9,100 | Medium | High |
It’s so crazy that we’re at the end of July already. That means the trade deadline is right around the corner! It also means the playoffs aren’t far behind, and it’ll be fun to watch these teams battle to get in. The Braves look like the heavy favorite, but anything can happen once the playoffs begin! We still have two months until then, so let’s look at this Sunday slate!
Starting Pitcher Rankings
| PLAYER | DK SALARY | FD SALARY | VALUE | RISK |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) at PIT | $11,000 | $9,900 | Low | Medium |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) at KC | $10,300 | $10,200 | Medium | Low |
| James Paxton (BOS) at SF | $9,900 | $10,400 | Medium | Medium |
| Logan Allen (CLE) at CWS | $9,000 | $9,100 | Medium | High |
Starting Pitcher Strategy
Woof, this slate was tough! I found two pitchers that I loved, and then I hit a wall after that. It took me about 15 minutes to pick two other pitchers I wanted to recommend, but that’s why they’re in the GPP section. It should allow us to stack the bats however we want, though, because we have some of the worst starters in baseball toeing the rubber. With that in mind, let’s look at those two guys I adore!
Cash Game Recommendations:
Aaron Nola (PHI) at PIT
It’s been an inconsistent season for Nola, but this guy is going off in this matchup. Pittsburgh ranks bottom three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA, and K rate since the opening month of the year. That should bode well for a pitcher this talented, with Nola posting a 3.67 ERA and 1.12 WHIP throughout his career. He’s also showcased a 65-point upside on FanDuel twice this year and dropped 49 fantasy points in his most recent matchup with Pittsburgh!
Bailey Ober (MIN) at KC
Minnesota has quietly taken control of the AL Central, and Ober has been the ace who’s gotten them there. The right-hander has a 2.76 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, scoring at least 25 FanDuel points in 15 of his 16 starts. Only a few aces can match a floor like that, but it should be easy to duplicate against Kansas City. The Royals rank 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, and wOBA, with Ober allowing just one run in their one matchup early in the year.
GPP Recommendations:
James Paxton (BOS) at SF
Paxton has always been a stud when he’s healthy, but that’s been a rare occurrence for the left-hander. The good news is that he’s staying healthy right now, registering a 3.46 ERA and 1.00 WHIP on the year. He’s also scored at least 36 FanDuel points in eight of his 12 starts and should reach that in San Fran. Not only do the Giants possess an average lineup, but it’s one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.
Logan Allen (CLE) at CWS
It was tough to find a fourth pitcher, but Allen looks like a good option. The southpaw is sporting a 3.39 ERA in an impressive rookie season, allowing three runs or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts. Two five-run duds against elite offenses have hurt his averages, but Chicago is far from scary. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored, 29th in OBP, and 27th in xwOBA. He’s faced them twice already, falling just one out shy of picking up a quality start in both of those.
Top Lineup Stacks
Oakland Athletics (vs. Chris Flexen)
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/COL -120
I wanted to go wild today! Oakland has been the worst team in baseball, but they’re going to be a great target for us all weekend. The reason for that is this matchup. Colorado is the only team who has a worse ERA and WHIP than the A’s, with Coors Field playing as a nightmare setting for this pitching staff. That’s why Oakland is projected to score five runs, facing a pitcher who was just DFA’d a few weeks back.
Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Luke Weaver)
- Home (Dodger Stadium)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 10.5 Runs/LAD -210
The Dodgers have a Top 5 offense in nearly every metric, and they should feast against a pitcher like Luke Weaver. The Reds righty is about to lose his job when Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo return, generating a 7.20 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. We actually saw Weaver surrender seven runs against the Dodgers back on June 6, and another one of those duds could be on the horizon!
New York Mets (vs. Patrick Corbin)
- Home (Citi Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/NYM -180
We’ve been stacking against Corbin for years. This Nats lefty has been sliding since leaving Arizona, amassing a 5.63 ERA and 1.57 WHIP over the last four years. That’s terrifying against a potent Mets lineup because they’ve been a Top 10 offense this month. Many of their bats have crushed Corbin over recent years, and we’ll get into that in the next section!
Core Studs
| POS | PLAYER | DK SALARY | FD SALARY |
| 1B | Pete Alonso (NYM) | $4,900 | $3,900 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman (LAD) | $6,200 | $4,500 |
| 3B | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | $5.800 | $4,100 |
| OF | Ronald Acuna (ATL) | $6,600 | $4,600 |
| OF | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | $4,600 | $3,500 |
- We wanted to write up Alonso because he’s our favorite play on this slate! The Polar Bear has an OPS above 2.000 over his last six games. That means his hand issue might be a thing of the past, but facing Corbin is a dream-like scenario. In 49 at-bats against Corbin, Alonso has a .469 OBP, .775 SLG and 1.244 OPS!
- It’s still wild to think that LA ended up with Freeman somehow. This perennial All-Star is amid another amazing season, accruing a .328 AVG, .409 OBP, .582 SLG and .991 OPS. He’s been even better recently, tallying a 1.131 OPS over his last 25 outings. We obviously don’t want to fade him since he has the platoon advantage against Weaver’s 7.00 ERA.
- Ramirez has been a Top 5 fantasy option throughout his career, and he’s rolling right now. J-Ram has a .335 AVG, .406 OBP, .598 SLG, and 1.004 OPS across his last 41 games. He’s also got eight steals in that span and is one of the best power-speed threats in the game. Touki Toussaint is far from a terrifying matchup, totaling a 5.14 career ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
- Acuna could be in this section every day. This future MVP is leading all players with over 12 DraftKings points per game. He’s also one of the league leaders in BA, runs scored, and steals, dominating atop this amazing Atlanta lineup. The regression monster has been biting at Julio Teheran recently, too, tallying a 7.25 ERA across his last four starts.
- It’s been a rough year for Schwarber in Philly, but he’s still providing power. The big man still has 26 bombs, despite sitting well below a .200 average. We love that since he faces a weak righty here, with Quinn Priester providing a 9.28 ERA and 1.50 WHIP as a fill-in for Pittsburgh.
Value Plays/Punts
| POS | PLAYER | DK SALARY | FD SALARY |
| OF | Tommy Pham (NYM) | $3,300 | $2,800 |
| OF | Brent Rooker (OAK) | $3,700 | $3,200 |
| 3B | Max Muncy (LAD) | $4,800 | $4,000 |
| OF | Ian Happ (CHC) | $3,300 | $3,100 |
| SS | Carlos Correa (MIN) | $4,500 | $2,900 |
- The Mets have been a massive disappointment, but Pham has been fantastic. The Hawaiian is hitless over his last 11 appearances but was one of the best pitchers in the AL before that. In fact, Pham had a .404 OBP, .578 SLG, and .982 OPS across his previous 33 outings. We’re going to trust that sample size because getting the platoon advantage against Corbin should help him recapture that. In 19 at-bats against him, Pham has a .500 OBP and 1.026 OPS.
- It’s tough to find which Oakland players we want to use, but Rooker has been their best bat this year. He always bats third or fourth, posting a .331 OBP, .464 SLG, and .795 OPS this year. That’s a great total from such a cheap player, and we can’t fade him in Coors against a pitcher like Flexen!
- Muncy is only a GPP option because he’s a home run or bust-type player. The reason we want to ride him today is this matchup, posting much better splits against right-handers. He also comes into this matchup hot, maintaining a 1.209 OPS across his last seven outings.
- Happ has some of the most impressive BvP numbers of the day. The Cubs three-hole hitter has a .382 AVG, .417 OBP, 1.000 SLG, and 1.417 OPS in 36 at-bats against Adam Wainwright. That’s a large sample size to sustain a 1.000 SLG, but it looks even better since Happ has a .889 OPS across his last nine games.
- Correa has had a disastrous season in Minnesota, but a move to the leadoff spot has been great for his fantasy value. That’s allowed the All-Star to accumulate a .357 OBP across his last 19 games. What makes him attractive is this matchup, facing Jordan Lyles‘ 1-12 record and 6.19 ERA.
Hitter Strategy
There are so many other offenses we could have recommended. Minnesota facing Jordan Lyles and Atlanta squaring off with Julio Teheran looked like some of the best stacks of the day, but we didn’t include them because they’re much more expensive than the teams mentioned above. We also didn’t mention Colorado in Coors Field, and they’re obviously a great choice as well! The teams we want to mix and match include the Rockies, Athletics, Dodgers, Phillies, Twins, Guardians, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals, Mariners, and Braves. It should be easy to build lineups with so many good offenses out there, and we love pairing them with Nola and Ober.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
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