It’s been a fun week of baseball, and we’re finally into July! It’s hard to believe that we’re halfway through the baseball season and the calendar year because it’s been flying by. That’s what happens when you play DFS every day, though, and the season will be over before you know it. We also have the All-Star break right around the corner as well, and we’re looking forward to a hectic trade deadline at the end of the month to put the cherry on this beautiful sundae!

Starting Pitcher Rankings

Starting Pitcher Strategy

Wow, this is a fantastic slate from a pitching perspective! It was nearly impossible to limit it to just four guys because it feels like every team’s best starter is toeing the rubber. Some of the guys we didn’t write up include Justin Verlander, Tyler Glasnow, Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Hunter Brown, Zack Wheeler, Eury Perez, and Julio Urias. Any of those guys can go off today, but we’ve chosen our four recommendations because they have the best matchups on the board!

Cash Game Recommendations:

Charlie Morton (ATL) vs. MIA

The WHIP from Morton has been ugly all season, but this guy continues to be a beast in DFS. The right-hander has scored at least 33 FanDuel points in 12 of his 15 starts. The strikeouts, wins, and ERA have allowed him to do that, and all three of those should be great against Miami. The Marlins rank 23rd in xwOBA, 24th in runs scored, and 26th in K rate. That’s why Morton is a -180 favorite in this game.

Corbin Burnes (MIL) at PIT

It’s been a struggle for Burnes this season, but he’s still one of the best pitchers in the game. The Brewers ace has a 2.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 37 percent K rate since the 2020 season. We expect him to recapture that form against Pittsburgh because they’re 29th in K rate and bottom-five in nearly every offensive category since the opening month.

GPP Recommendations:

Dylan Cease (CWS) at OAK

Cease has been inconsistent all year, but he’s showing flashes of the stud we saw last season. DC has allowed five hits or fewer in nine straight starts, generating a 2.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 rate in that span. That’s on par with what we saw last year, and it should be easy to duplicate that against the A’s. Oakland ranks dead-last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA since the start of last season. We also don’t mind that Cease is a -200 favorite.

Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs. MIN

This is our riskiest recommendation of the day, but we wanted one cheap option. Bradish is affordable because of his lackluster career averages, but he’s been a different guy over the last two months. The former top prospect has allowed three runs or fewer in 10 of his last 11 starts, tallying a 3.34 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in that span. That’s terrible news for a struggling Twins lineup, ranked 22nd in runs scored and 23rd in xwOBA.

Top Lineup Stacks

Chicago White Sox (vs. James Kaprielian)

• Road (Oakland Coliseum)
• Value: High
• Risk: High
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/CWS -200

I think we’ve had an offense against the A’s in every slate this season. It’s easy to understand why because Oakland ranks dead last in ERA and WHIP. They’re the only team with an ERA north of 6.00, and they allow opposing offenses to go off every night. Kaprielian has been one of those gas cans, posting a 6.34 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Chicago has been sliding all season, but this is a good weekend series to get them right.

Arizona Diamondbacks (vs. Tyler Anderson)

• Road (Angel Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 10 Runs/LAA -130

The Diamondbacks have been the biggest surprise in baseball. Their offense is a significant reason why, ranked fifth in OBP and sixth in runs scored. That’s rough for a contact pitcher like Tyler Anderson, accruing a 5.54 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in what’s developing into a nightmare season. Arizona has also crushed left-handers all year, and we’ll tell you why in the hitter’s section!

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Daniel Lynch)

• Road (Kauffman Stadium)
• Value: Medium
• Risk: Medium
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/LAD -200

The Dodgers are always a daunting lineup. This team ranks second in home runs and fourth in runs scored. Daniel Lynch is amid his best year but has been terrible throughout his career. Lynch has a 5.11 ERA and 1.53 WHIP throughout his three-year tenure in the Majors. Don’t be surprised to see the regression monster bite Lynch here!

Core Studs

• Ohtani is a lock for MVP. Not only is he one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he’s the best bat in the AL right now. The slugger has a .485 OBP, .982 SLG, and 1.466 OPS over his last 28 games. Those are video game-like averages, and it will be tough to fade him against a righty with a 4.97 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
• Mookie is scorching right now. The MVP candidate went 4-for-4 with two dingers on Friday and had a .922 OPS in the 23 games before that. That has his OPS above 1.000 after that gem on Friday night, and we obviously don’t mind that he has the platoon advantage against a lefty with a career ERA north of 5.00.
• Why does Robert remain so affordable on both sites? This guy has been rolling for a month now, registering a .371 OBP, .725 SLG, and 1.096 OPS across his last 21 outings. He’s also got four steals in that span and shouldn’t be faded against the worst pitching staff in baseball.
• Marte has been slaughtering southpaws throughout his career and is in the middle of one of the best stretches ever. He’s got a .416 OBP, .580 SLG, and .996 OPS across his last 30 games. That’s scary when evaluating his splits, sporting a .388 OBP and .960 OPS against left-handers over the last three years. Not to mention, Marte has maintained a .531 OBP, .889 SLG, and 1.420 OPS in 32 at-bats against Anderson.
• Many people forget to select Smith when they stack the Dodgers, but that’s silly. The catcher always bats in the heart of this lineup, leading all catchers with 9.1 DraftKings points per game. He’s also had his way with lefties, accumulating a .426 OBP, .574 SLG, and 1.001 OPS against them this year.

Value Plays/Punts

• Eloy has always been an elite bat when he’s healthy, and that’s what we have right now. He’s got a career ISO just shy of .250 and is projected to be even better when looking at his raw power metrics. That’s bad news for the worst pitching staff in baseball, especially since Eloy has a 1.346 OPS across his last three outings.
• If we stack Arizona, we need to use Marte and Walker together. These two will be in the heart of the lineup, with Christian compiling a .449 OBP, .729 SLG, and 1.177 OPS across his last 17 outings. CW also has a .951 OPS against left-handers this year, generating a .833 OPS in 30 at-bats against Anderson.
• It’s been a rough month for Rowdy, but this guy will get going. He has a career OPS north of .800 against right-handers and continues to bat third in this dangerous Milwaukee lineup. We love that against a guy like Johan Oviedo, totaling a 4.06 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
• We don’t want to recommend many bats from the Tigers, but we have to use some of them against the Rockies. Colorado ranks 29th in ERA and WHIP, with Detroit projected to score nearly six runs in Coors Field. We love that for Baez in the heart of their lineup because Colorado is expected to have a bullpen game here. That’s terrifying with how bad this pen has been, and stacking the Tigers might be one of the best pivots on the slate.

Hitter Strategy

There are five teams we want to stack on this slate. Those teams include the Tigers, Rockies, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and White Sox. What we love about these teams is that many of these bats are cheap. Los Angeles is the only offense we have to pay up for, and it should make lineup construction simple. There’s a perfect recipe between those five teams, but it’s up to you guys to pick the right pieces to build the perfect puzzle!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.