Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate is small. It has six games, starting at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The picks for tonight’s main slate are whittled to three pitchers, one stack, three studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is fairly strong on tonight's small slate. However, a righty with the literal ideal matchup is the top option. The second pitcher on the table is a high-upside choice in tournaments. And the last pitcher is grossly underpriced on DK, making him the no-brainer top SP2 in cash games.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Joe Ryan (MIN)
Ryan is a stud at home and has a Charmin-soft matchup tonight. According to FanGraphs, in 144.1 innings at home since debuting in 2021, Ryan has a 3.24 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, 0.95 WHIP, 6.6 BB% and 27.1 K%.
And, again, the matchup is tasty. The Royals are 30th in wRC+ (78) and have a 24.5 K% versus right-handed pitchers in 2023. They're also 30th in wRC+ (66) and have a 27.8 K% in the last 14 days. And Kansas City is tied for 29th in wRC+ (76) and has a 27.4 K% on the road this season.
The betting info cements Ryan's status as the top pitcher tonight. According to Betting Pros, the Twins are -225, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Bryan Woo (SEA) at SF
Woo was roughed up in his first start in the majors this year. However, he's rebounded splendidly. In four subsequent starts spanning 20.2 innings, Woo has had a 2.18 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 6.1 BB%, 34.1 K% and 13.0 SwStr%.
The righty doesn't have a perfect matchup. Still, the Giants are strikeout prone, mired in a slump and unimpressive at home. First, they have a 24.5 K% against righties this year. Second, they're 28th in wRC+ (72) and have a 25.6 K% in the last 14 days. Third, San Francisco is 19th in wRC+ (98) and has a 23.9 K% at home in 2023. Sadly, the Mariners are slight underdogs (+115). Yet, the game's total of 7.0 runs is ideal.
GPP Recommendation:
Logan Webb (SF) vs. SEA
Webb is an ace at home. In 219.0 innings at home since 2021, Webb has had a 2.47 ERA, 2.79 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 25.1 K% and 60.5 GB%.
San Francisco's No. 1 starter can shine tonight in an average matchup. The Mariners are tied for 16th in wRC+ (98) against righties but strike out at an exploitable 25.6% of their plate appearances against them. Seattle also has a 27.6 K% in the last 14 days and a 26.3 K% on the road. And finally, the Giants are -135, and the game's total is 7.0 runs. As a result, the sky is the limit for Webb tonight.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Twins have a good matchup. Additionally, they do their best work at home. In 16.0 innings this season, Austin Cox has an unsustainable and unsupported 2.25 ERA. The lefty's 4.71 xERA and 4.50 xFIP are better indications of what to expect from now on. Moreover, the other shoe dropped in his last appearance, when he allowed four runs on four hits, one homer and four walks in just 3.2 innings. Kansas City's lousy bullpen is a good matchup for the Twins, too. The Royals' relievers have the fourth-highest ERA (4.93) in 2023. And, again, the Twins are excellent at home, ranking seventh in wRC+ (110) in home games this season. Thus, the Twins are an exciting stack in all game types and cheap to boot.
- In 253 plate appearances against righties this year, Juan Soto has 12 homers, a .451 OBP, .272 ISO and 177 wRC+.
- Carlos Correa rakes with the platoon advantage. In 451 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, he has had a .384 OBP, .187 ISO and 139 wRC+.
- Byron Buxton is an elite power source against lefties. In 267 plate appearances against them since 2021, he has had a .296 ISO and 141 wRC+.
- In 117 plate appearances against righties this year, Ryan O'Hearn has six homers, a .342 OBP, .222 ISO and 137 wRC+.
- Jose Miranda was recently recalled from the minors. Unfortunately, he's had a poor season at the dish for the Twins. Nevertheless, in 165 plate appearances against lefties since reaching the majors last year, he's had a .218 ISO and 127 wRC+.
- Kyle Farmer is at risk of being removed for a platoon hitter when the Royals use a right-handed reliever. Still, he can outperform his punt salary against Cox. In 335 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Farmer has had a .346 OBP, .223 ISO and 128 wRC+.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Twins are the backbone of tonight's hitter options. Thankfully, the salary relief they provide allows gamers to use Soto and other studs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
