Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has eight games and begins at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer suggests three starting pitchers, two stacks, three core studs and three values/punts.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Even the top pitchers carry some risk tonight. Still, the top-ranked hurler is a monster at home and has a superb matchup. The second and third pitchers on the table are squaring off and face high-strikeout lineups.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Yu Darvish (SD) vs. PIT
Darvish is inconsistent but in good form and a stud at home. According to FanGraphs, in 235.0 innings at home since 2021, Darvish has had a 3.18 ERA, 3.45 xFIP, 0.97 WHIP, 5.6 BB% and 29.0 K%.
He can twirl a gem tonight in an excellent matchup. The Pirates are 26th in wRC+ (86) and have a 23.2 K% versus righties in 2023. Pittsburgh is also tied for 24th in wRC+ (88) and has a 25.4 K% on the road this season. Finally, per Betting Pros, the Padres are -260, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Kenta Maeda (MIN) vs. SEA
Maeda enters tonight's start in a groove. In his previous five starts spanning 26.1 innings, he's had a 2.73 ERA, 3.12 xFIP, 3.11 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.8 BB%, 35.3 K%, 31.6 CSW%, 104 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 101 Pitching+. Moreover, Maeda held the Mariners to two earned runs on three hits, zero walks and nine strikeouts in 6.1 innings in his most recent start.
The Mariners have a mid-pack offense but strike out regularly. They have a 25.9 K% against righties and a 26.2 K% on the road this year. The Twins are slight underdogs (even), but the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
Luis Castillo (SEA) at MIN
Castillo has pitched well lately. In his previous five starts spanning 31.0 innings, he's had a 3.48 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.4 BB%, 25.2 K%, 30.3 CSW%, 97 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 104 Pitching+.
Sadly, the Twins are a challenging matchup for Castillo. They're eighth in wRC+ (107) against righties and tied for seventh in wRC+ (111) at home this year. However, Minnesota has a 27.3 K% against righties and a 26.3 K% at home this season. As a result, Castillo has a sky-high ceiling. Finally, the Mariners are -120, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Reds have seven players in their projected lineup with at least a 107 wRC+ against righties this year and five with at least a 115 wRC+. They can light up the scoreboard tonight in a good matchup. Colin Rea has a 4.64 ERA, 4.08 xERA and 4.51 xFIP this year. He's also coughed up 1.48 HR/9. And Rea has struggled mightily at home, yielding a 5.31 ERA at American Family Field this season.
- Home (Chase Field)
- Value: Low (DK)/Medium (FD)
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: Unlisted
The Diamondbacks have a top-10 offense against righties and on the road, ranking ninth in wRC+ (106) against right-handed pitchers and 10th in wRC+ (102) on the road in 2023. They have a Charmin-soft matchup tonight. Adam Wainwright has a 7.66 ERA, 8.22 xERA, 5.87 xFIP, 7.5 BB% and 11.0 K% this year. He's also ceded 1.74 HR/9. Furthermore, lefties have a .441 OBP, .723 SLG and .485 wOBA against Waino, and righties have a .383 OBP, .504 SLG and .383 wOBA against him this year. Finally, St. Louis's bullpen is tied for the seventh-highest ERA (4.40) this year.
- In 253 plate appearances against righties this year, Jake Fraley has 14 homers, 13 stolen bases, a .379 OBP, .239 ISO and 139 wRC+.
- Corbin Carroll has 18 homers, 23 stolen bases, a .376 OBP, .316 ISO and 159 wRC+ in 290 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 203 plate appearances against righties this season, Matt McLain has six homers, six stolen bases, a .360 OBP, .202 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Will Benson is on fire. In his previous 71 plate appearances, he has had four homers, five stolen bases, a .408 OBP, .355 ISO and 180 wRC+.
- In 285 plate appearances against righties this year, Brendan Donovan has 11 homers, four stolen bases, a .380 OBP, .177 ISO and 137 wRC+.
- David Fry has two homers, a .424 OBP, .276 ISO and 189 wRC+ in his first 33 plate appearances against lefties in The Show.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Reds and the Diamondbacks are the most exciting sources of hitters tonight. And both lineups have a few low-salaried options to offset their high-salaried studs.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Whether you're new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy - like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests - to learn more.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
