Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 10 games and starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. And today’s DFS primer narrows the suggested starting pitchers, stacks, studs and values/punts to a manageable three, two, three and three.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The pitching is rather lackluster tonight. However, the top pitcher on the table is an excellent option in all game types in a strikeout-friendly matchup. The second pitcher on the table hasn't been announced as his club's starter tonight. However, he is projected by Roster Resource to start against a team he pitched well against in a lengthy relief appearance in his last appearance. And the final option on the table has a challenging matchup and struggled in his first taste of the majors earlier this year. Nevertheless, he was dominant in the minors, making him a fun GPP pick.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs. MIN
Gilbert has been rock-solid with the ERA estimators this year to support his success. According to FanGraphs, in 18 starts spanning 108.1 innings, he's had a 3.66 ERA, 3.35 xERA, 3.69 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 4.4 BB%, 24.8 K% and 27.5 CSW%.
Gilbert has a desirable matchup and good betting info tonight. The Twins strike out a ton, fanning at a 27.1% clip against righties in 2023 and 27.3% of their plate appearances on the road this year. Furthermore, they're 22nd in wRC+ (90) on the road. And, again, the betting info is good. Per Betting Pros, the Mariners are -130, and the game's total is 7.0 runs.
Nick Pivetta (BOS) at OAK
Pivetta is not listed as the starter, but Roster Resource and DK project him to get the ball. If the Red Sox use him as a bulk reliever after an opener, that would drastically devalue him at FD. However, he'd still be an excellent option at DK.
Pivetta caught fire in Boston's bullpen. In 15.2 innings in the last 30 days, he's had a 2.87 ERA, 2.48 xFIP, 2.06 SIERA, 0.77 WHIP, 8.5 BB%, 42.4 K%, 31.9 CSW%, 122 Stuff+, 109 Location+ and 113 Pitching+.
Pivetta has an awesome matchup for staying hot, whether he works as a bulk reliever tonight or is reinserted into the rotation. The Athletics are tied for 25th in wRC+ (86) and have a 25.2 K% against righties this year. Oakland is 18th in wRC+ (97) and has a 26.0 K% in the previous 14 days. And they're 28th in wRC+ (87) with a 25.2 K% at home this season.
GPP Recommendation:
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. LAD
Rodriguez had a dreadful 7.35 ERA and 6.01 xERA in his first 10 starts for the Orioles before he was demoted to Triple-A. Everything wasn't disastrous in his first crack at the majors. Rodriguez had a 3.90 xFIP, 26.5 K%, 27.0 CSW%, 103 Stuff+, 99 Location+ and 102 Pitching+.
The rookie has also dominated in Triple-A this season. In eight starts spanning 41.1 innings, he's had a 1.96 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 11.2 BB%, 33.1 K% and 18.2 SwStr%. Rodriguez also had five quality starts in five of the seven starts he made after he was demoted and struck out at least eight batters four times. Rodriguez's matchup is tricky tonight. If he can tap into the success he had in Triple-A, he can overcome the matchup and pan out in GPPs. Thus, Rodriguez is a worthy dart in tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
Emmet Sheehan hasn't made a seamless transition from Double-A to the majors. Instead, he's had a 4.35 ERA, 5.38 xFIP, 5.13 SIERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.8 BB%, 19.5 K% and 23.0 CSW% in four starts for the Dodgers. So, Sheehan hasn't been a train wreck. But he hasn't pitched well enough to deter gamers from stacking Baltimore's above-average offense.
The Orioles are eighth in wRC+ (107) against righties in 2023. Baltimore is first in wRC+ (138) in the previous 14 days. And they're tied for 12th in wRC+ (104) at home this season.
- Road (Globe Life Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/TB -125
The Rays have struggled lately. However, their full-season marks are outstanding. Tampa Bay is first in wRC+ (121) against righties in 2023. They're also third in wRC+ (113) on the road this year.
The Rays can get back on track tonight against a pitcher overachieving his underlying stats. Dane Dunning's 2.84 ERA in 92.0 innings (12 starts and eight relief appearances) contrasts his 4.72 xERA, 4.58 xFIP and 4.72 SIERA. In addition, he relies on batted balls to find gloves since he has struck out only 15.9% of the batters he's faced this year. The Rays can punish his low-strikeout approach and start the regression process for his ERA tonight.
- Luke Raley has 13 homers, 10 stolen bases, a .366 OBP, .294 ISO and 164 wRC+ in 225 plate appearances against righties this year.
- In 350 plate appearances against righties this season, Gunnar Henderson has 14 homers, a .337 OBP, .272 ISO and 137 wRC+.
- Adley Rutschman has nine homers, a .366 OBP and 119 wRC+ in 279 plate appearances against righties this year.
- Ryan O'Hearn has been a pleasant surprise for the Orioles this season. In 147 plate appearances against righties, he's had seven homers, a .367 OBP, .224 ISO and 149 wRC+.
- In 189 plate appearances against righties this season, Jesus Sanchez has eight homers, a .218 ISO and 116 wRC+.
- Zach Neto is an acceptable pick on FD. However, he's featured because he's a steal at DK. The rookie shortstop has a 106 wRC+ in 215 plate appearances this year and has hit leadoff for the Angels lately. Meanwhile, Luis Severino has coughed up a .392 wOBA to righties this season.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Orioles and Rays are excellent sources for hitters tonight in all game types. Thankfully, they have some affordable options to complement their studs. And even Baltimore's top-shelf options have bargain salaries at FD.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
