Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has 14 games. It starts at 7:05 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. The suggested options in this piece include four starting pitchers, three stacks, three studs and four values/punts.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Many high-caliber pitchers are toeing the slab tonight. However, the first two players listed above are the most desirable picks in cash games and GPPs. The third and fourth pitchers on the table are the best SP2 picks at DK and useful darts in GPPs at FD.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Logan Webb (SF) vs. BOS
Webb lives up to his billing as an ace when he gets the ball in his home ballpark. According to FanGraphs, in 234.2 innings at home since 2021, Webb has had a 2.38 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, 1.11 WHIP, 60.1 GB%, 5.5 BB%, and 25.8 K%.
The righty is also an excellent bet to pitch a quality start. According to ESPN, Webb is tied for first in quality starts this year with 15.
Thankfully, the matchup and betting info tonight are stellar, too. The Red Sox are just 19th in wRC+ (94) and have a 23.4 K% on the road this season. And per Betting Pros, the Giants are -150, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs.
Bobby Miller (LAD) vs. CIN
Miller hasn't been perfect in his rookie campaign. Still, his underlying data is better than his 4.50 ERA was in his previous four starts totaling 22.0 innings. In those starts, Miller had a 3.95 xFIP, 3.66 SIERA, 1.05 WHIP 3.3 BB%, 24.2 K%, 28.7 CSW%, 126 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 110 Pitching+.
The matchup is also DFS-friendly. The Reds are tied for 19th in wRC+ (95) and have a 23.6 K% versus righties this year. They're also 22nd in wRC+ (92) with a 24.9 K% in the previous 30 days. Finally, the Dodgers are -240.
GPP Recommendations:
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. LAA
Gausman is pitching well entering tonight's start, despite being a pinch unlucky. In his last four starts spanning 23.0 innings, he's had a 3.52 ERA, 2.60 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 4.4 BB%, 38.9 K%, 32.0 CSW%, 105 Stuff+, 106 Location+ and 109 Pitching+.
Gausman is behind Webb because the former has a more challenging matchup. On the flip side, Gausman has a higher ceiling since the Angels have a 23.8 K% versus righties this year and a 27.4 K% in the previous 30 days. Furthermore, the betting info is encouraging. The Blue Jays are -205, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. NYY
Rodriguez was excellent in Triple-A after he struggled early in the year for the Orioles. It's been a mixed bag since Baltimore recalled him from the minors. In two starts since they called him back up, he's had a 5.06 ERA, 3.30 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, 9.5 BB%, 23.8 K%, 29.9 CSW%, 125 Stuff+, 101 Location+ and 107 Pitching+ in 10.2 innings.
Rodriguez's ERA was alarming. But the Yankees could help him close the gap with his ERA estimators. The Bronx Bombers are 21st in wRC+ (92) and have a 22.3 K% versus righties this year. They're also tied for 21st in wRC+(92) and have a 23.0 K% on the road this season. The betting info is also fine. The Orioles are slight underdogs (even), and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Rodriguez is a volatile choice, but his upside is worth gambling on in GPPs at his bargain salary.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Braves have an elite offense by any applicable split for tonight's contest. First, they're fourth in wRC+ (115) and second in ISO (.202) against righties in 2023. Second, they're seventh in wRC+ (115) and first in ISO (.247) in the previous 30 days. Third, they're third in wRC+ (123) and first in ISO (.230) at home this year.
Adrian Houser has the unenviable task of facing them. The righty's 3.86 ERA isn't an exciting number to stack the Braves against. However, his 4.37 xERA and 4.50 xFIP this season suggest he's been lucky.
- Road (Kauffman Stadium)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/MIN -165
The Twins are tied for seventh in wRC+ (109) versus righties this year. They're also tied for fifth in wRC+ (117) and ranked fifth in ISO (.201) in the previous 30 days. Minnesota has struggled on the road, creating some risk for stacking them. Nevertheless, the betting info is sweet. And the park factors at Kauffman Stadium are a plus for Minnesota's offensive potential.
- Road (Chase Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: Medium
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/SEA -135
The Mariners are on a roll lately. They're 10th in wRC+ (111) in the previous 30 days. Additionally, while Seattle's offense hasn't torn the cover off the ball against lefties this year, seven of their projected starters have had at least a 110 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021 (or since reaching the majors for applicable players).
The matchup is also favorable. Tommy Henry has had a 5.76 xFIP in his previous four starts, much worse than his 3.10 ERA. And Arizona's relievers have the eighth-highest ERA (4.57) this year.
- In 342 plate appearances against righties this year, Matt Olson has 27 homers, a .383 OBP, .341 ISO and 160 wRC+.
- Nolan Arenado has had a .332 OBP, .312 ISO and 148 wRC+ against lefties since 2021. He's not as appealing on FD since his salary is more difficult to fit under the cap with the other featured players. Yet, Arenado is an attractive stud on DK if Drew Smyly starts for the Cubs.
- In 259 plate appearances at home against righties since reaching the majors last year, Michael Harris has had eight homers, a .340 OBP, .179 ISO and 120 wRC+. Additionally, Harris has had three homers, five stolen bases, a .354 OBP, .216 ISO and 135 wRC+ in 79 plate appearances in the previous 30 days.
- Edouard Julien has raked with the platoon advantage. In 178 plate appearances against righties in his rookie campaign, he has 10 homers, a .412 OBP, .287 ISO and 180 wRC+.
- In 326 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Teoscar Hernandez has had a .359 OBP, .343 ISO and 178 wRC+.
- Tom Murphy has amassed a .358 OBP, .205 ISO and 129 wRC+ in 245 plate appearances against lefties since 2021.
- In 217 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Tyler O'Neill has had a .359 OBP, .242 ISO and 139 wRC+.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Braves are the most exciting offense to get exposure to in DFS. However, their salaries are tough to stack under the cap. Fortunately, the Twins and Mariners have cap-friendly options to mix in. Therefore, Atlanta, Minnesota and Seattle are excellent sources for hitters tonight.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
