MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer: Friday (7/21)

Friday’s MLB DFS main slate has 11 games beginning at 7:05 pm ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s primer reduces the pool of targeted players to four starting pitchers, two stacks, three studs and three values/punts.

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Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
A few aces are getting the ball tonight. The top-ranked pitcher on the table narrowly edges out the second and third pitchers as the best pick in cash games. And the fourth pitcher on the table is an ideal value option as an SP2 at DK. All four pitchers are also appealing choices in GPPs.

Cash Game Recommendations:

Framber Valdez (HOU) at OAK
Valdez is a genuine workhorse. As a result, per ESPN, he's tied for seventh in quality starts (13) in 18 turns this season. And, per FanGraphs, Valdez has a 2.76 ERA, 2.90 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 54.6 GB%, 5.9 BB%, 27.4 K% and 29.4 CSW% in 117.1 innings this season.

Houston's ace can dominate Oakland's lousy offense. The A's are tied for 24th in wRC+ (93) and have a 23.5 K% versus lefties in 2023. They're also tied for 26th in wRC+ (88) and have a 25.8 K% at home this year. Finally, according to Betting Pros, the Astros are -267, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs. The betting info nudges Valdez ahead of two upcoming aces as the top pick in cash games.

Clarke Schmidt (NYY) vs. KC
In Schmidt's previous five appearances (four starts) spanning 22.1 innings, he's had a 3.22 ERA, 4.43 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 23.4 K%, 32.1 CSW%, 102 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 100 Pitching+. Schmidt's xFIP suggests he was somewhat lucky. Still, his other underlying data and ERA were stellar.

The matchup and betting info are also outstanding. The Royals are 30th in wRC+ (77) and have a 24.3 K% versus righties in 2023. Kansas City is 30th in wRC+ (74) and has a 27.7 K% on the road this year. And the Yankees are -200. Thus, Schmidt is a steal at DK and should provide substantial excess value to his salary.

GPP Recommendations:

Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs. PIT
Ohtani is dominant from the bump at home. In 229.2 innings at home since 2021, he's had a 2.12 ERA, 2.94 xFIP, 1.00 WHIP, 8.1 BB% and 32.7 K%.

The two-way star should put on a show against Pittsburgh's lowly lineup. The Pirates are 26th in wRC+ (86) and have a 23.1 K% versus righties this season. Pittsburgh is also tied for 25th in wRC+ (87) and has a 25.0 K% on the road this year. The betting info is the cherry on top. The Angels are -205, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.

Joe Ryan (MIN) vs. CWS
Ryan hasn't matched Ohtani's dominance in home starts. Still, Minnesota's ace is superb at home. In 154.2 innings at home since reaching the majors in 2021, Ryan has had a 3.43 ERA, 3.98 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 6.6 BB% and 28.2 K%. He's been especially good at home this year, spinning a 3.32 ERA, 3.40 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, 3.6 BB% and 31.1 K% in 57.0 innings.

Ryan has a desirable matchup tonight. The White Sox are tied for 27th in wRC+ (84) and have a 23.4 K% versus righties in 2023. And Chicago is tied for 25th in wRC+ (87) and has a 24.1 K% on the road. Lastly, the Twins are -165, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs.

Top Lineup Stacks

• Home (Great American Ball Park)
• Value: Low
• Risk: Low
• Game Type: Both
• Game Total/Moneyline: 10.5 Runs/CIN -120

The Reds have a juicy implied total in a sweet matchup tonight. In 15 appearances (14 starts) spanning 78.2 innings this year, Tommy Henry has a 3.89 ERA, 4.14 xERA and 5.28 xFIP. The gap between his ERA and ERA estimators indicates he should regress. And Henry struggles on the road. In 62.2 innings on the road since reaching the majors last year, he's had a 4.88 ERA and 5.24 xFIP, coughing up a .332 OBP, .481 SLG and .349 wOBA. Arizona's bullpen is below average, too. So, the Reds can light the scoreboard up tonight.

• Home (T-Mobile Park)
• Value: High
• Risk: High
• Game Type: GPP
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SEA -130

The Mariners don't have a high-octane offense. But they can get the better of Yusei Kikuchi tonight. Seattle is projected to start eight right-handed batters, and Kikuchi has coughed up a .318 OBP, .464 SLG and .337 wOBA to 338 righties this season. Kikuchi has also struggled on the road. In 51.2 innings on the road this year, he has a 4.53 ERA and ceded a .522 SLG and .359 wOBA. As a result, the Mariners are an exciting and low-salary stack.

• Matt McClain has four homers, a .387 OBP, .316 ISO and 170 wRC+ in his first 62 plate appearances against lefties in the majors.
• In 111 plate appearances against lefties in the majors, Spencer Steer has eight homers, a .373 OBP, .279 ISO and 149 wRC+.
• Masataka Yoshida has eight homers, six stolen bases, a .371 OBP, .188 ISO and 138 wRC+ in 259 plate appearances against righties in his first year in MLB.

• In 324 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Teoscar Hernandez has had a .355 OBP, .345 ISO and 176 wRC+.
• Christian Encarnacion-Strand smashed lefties in Triple-A this year before his promotion. According to MiLB.com, he had 10 homers and a 1.064 OPS in 96 at-bats against southpaws.
• Edouard Julien is pummeling righties in his rookie campaign. In 151 plate appearances against them, he has nine homers, two stolen bases, a .420 OBP, .297 ISO and 189 wRC+.

Friday's Hitter Strategy
The Reds are a high-upside stack gamers are encouraged to use in all game types. The Mariners are riskier but are a sweet cheap stack that allows gamers to double up on aces in tournaments.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.