Identifying Rookie WR1s & WR2s (2023 Fantasy Football)

In my most recent article, I identified the WRs who have the best shot at outperforming their average draft positions (ADPs) and becoming WR1s. In this one, I identify which rookies have the best shot at becoming immediate producers, those with the potential to finish as a WR1 or WR2.

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Identifying Rookie WR1s and WR2s (2023 Fantasy Football)

For my research, I examined WRs drafted between 2013-2022 who finished as either a WR1 or WR2 in points per reception (PPR), points per game (PPG) in their rookie season. This gave me a sample of eleven WRs. I then pulled their draft picks, age breakout scores, college dominator ratings, college Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades, and their team’s passing attempts in their rookie season. A summary of this compilation of data can be seen in the below table.

The first thing that stuck out to me is where these WRs are being drafted. I expected to see primarily high-draft picks, but I discovered they’re all high-draft picks. The only player to finish as a top 24 WR in their rookie season who wasn’t either a first or second-round draft pick is Keenan Allen, who was selected in the top half of Round 3 at pick 76. This tells us we want to mostly be looking at WRs drafted in Rounds 1 or 2, as there is little to no historical precedent that those drafted outside of the top two rounds can finish as a WR1 or WR2 in their rookie campaign.

Next, a player’s breakout age seems significant. This is a percentile-based stat, so our average of 60.27% tells us that these standout rookies are, on average, breaking out at earlier ages in college. This makes sense. The same players who are able to break out early in the NFL were also able to break out earlier in their college careers. These players are able to adjust to their competition quickly.

College dominator rating is a similar stat. With a sample average of 64.4%, we see these impact rookies were a more significant part of their colleges’ offenses than our population average. Unlike breakout age, there isn’t a history of rookies with low college dominator ratings that have popped in Year 1.

PFF college grades only go back so far, but those who dominated as rookies had solid PFF grades with an average of 82.5. Therefore, we want to closely examine rookie WRs who were graded well in college by PFF.

Finally, similarly to my findings in my “Identifying WR1s” article, we see these high-performing rookies play on offenses with a higher passing volume than the league average. Our sample average is 582, while the NFL average for pass attempts over the past decade was 564 attempts.

Now that I’ve broken down the different criteria, we can apply these facets to the 2023 rookie WR class. After doing so, I’ve identified four rookie WRs who fit all or most of the criteria shared by the standout rookie WRs of years past, with their FFPC positional ADPs attached.

Jordan Addison (MIN) | WR40

In my previous article, I laid out the case for him to be a WR1, and this new data only further supports my argument. In addition to all the points I made in that blurb, he fits many of the criteria in my research for this study. Addison has a breakout age percentile of 96%, meaning he was good as early in his college career as anyone else, a stat which is indicative of breakout rookie WRs. He also had a college dominator score in the 54th percentile, which while lower than our sample average, is still quite respectable.

He also had a solid college PFF grade of 81.5. Finally, the Vikings threw the ball 673 times in 2022, and there’s no reason to believe they will slow down their aerial attack. All of these bits of data lead me to believe Addison is the prime candidate to breakout and place in the top 24 WRs in his rookie campaign.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | WR41

JSN has a complicated profile, but it’s certainly one worth exploring. He was taken in the first round by Seattle as the first WR off the board, so Seattle undoubtedly values him highly, but they also already have two proven producers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. JSN has a solid breakout age in the 75th percentile but a paltry 11th percentile college dominator rating. This can be explained by his near absence from the football field in 2022, as he spent the majority of the season injured.

So while this low rating can be explained away, it’s not great that he hasn’t played much football in the past year. He did have an excellent PFF grade of 91.7 in 2021, and he landed on an offense with enough projectable volume, but it’s going to be difficult to earn his piece of the pie in 2023. However, If he is able to overtake either of the incumbent Seattle WRs, his talent should shine through, and he could crush in fantasy this season.

Quentin Johnston (LAC) | WR45

While he may be a polarizing prospect, there is a solid bull case for the TCU standout. Johnston received first-round draft capital from the nut passing offense, as the Chargers ranked second in the league in passing attempts in 2022 with 711, behind only the Bucs, whose volume should plummet. In addition to landing on likely the most pass-heavy offense, Johnston ranked in the 89th percentile in breakout age and the 57th percentile in college dominator rating. His PFF grade of 76.2 is a slight concern, but his overall profile is quite solid. He’s a good dart throw to break out at his cost.

Rashee Rice (KC) | WR58

There isn’t anything in Rice’s profile that’s outstanding, but there also isn’t anything frightening either. He received second-round draft capital from the defending Super Bowl champion, who also happens to be a pass-heavy team. He ranked in the 53rd percentile in breakout age, and the 64th percentile in college dominator, but his PFF grade of 85.9 is well above the average. The Chiefs have no one of note besides Travis Kelce, who catches passes, so why shouldn’t a rookie who the Chiefs invested highly in have a shot to be a breakout rookie?

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