One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target and who to avoid. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but it’s important to know which players you should not only avoid as the draft goes, but also to consider passing on even if the “value” is there. Here are my top players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football drafts. And here is a free closer look at a few of my top picks to avoid.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Here are players I’m avoiding.
George Pickens (WR – PIT)
Pickens made some splashy plays as a rookie. He’s an acrobat on contested catches, a darling of the highlight reels. He averaged 9.5 yards per target last season, which is a really good number. Undoubtedly you sense there’s a “but” coming. (You’re not wrong.)
Pickens’ inability to earn targets last year is concerning. He had a 15.3% target share as a rookie. Pickens didn’t have more than eight targets in any game all season. He didn’t have more than six targets in any game from Week 6 on.
Pickens was near the bottom of the wide receiver rankings in separation last year, according to Next Gen Stats. He only averaged 2.0 yards after the catch, which was also near the bottom of the WR rankings.
The contested catches are fun, but when you’re making a lot of contested catches, it’s a symptom of not getting a lot of separation with your routes. That appears to be the case with Pickens.
Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF)
The Bills haven’t been especially forthcoming about how they plan to use their first-round draft pick. Will he displace incumbent Dawson Knox as the Bills’ primary tight end? Will the Bills play more two-TE sets and have Kincaid line up in the slot, partially displacing slot receivers Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty?
Role ambiguity alone might not be a good reason to fade Kincaid, but we know that rookie TEs historically haven’t been great bets for fantasy. Of the 25 tight ends taken in the first round of the NFL Draft since 2000, only four — Kyle Pitts, Evan Engram, Heath Miller and Jeremy Shockey — were fantasy TE1s as rookies.
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