One of the most important aspects of completing a successful fantasy football draft is knowing who to target and who to avoid. Sure, there could be ‘value’ that presents itself through the draft, but it’s important to know which players you should not only avoid as the draft goes, but also to consider passing on even if the “value” is there. Here are my top players to avoid in 2023 fantasy football drafts. And here is a free closer look at a few of my top picks to avoid.
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Fantasy Football Players to Avoid
Here are players I’m avoiding.
Calvin Ridley (WR – JAC)
It’s possible Ridley picks up where he left off after not playing since early in the 2021 season. At his current price, investors need for that to happen in order to get a satisfying ROI.
The thing is, pro football is hard. We saw Deshaun Watson have trouble scraping off the rust last season after being out of the NFL for nearly two years. Maybe it will be easy for a wide receiver, who doesn’t have quite as much to process as a quarterback. Or maybe it will be a tough readjustment for Ridley, too. And is it fair to wonder about Ridley’s commitment to football after foolishly getting himself suspended for gambling? I think it is.
The Jaguars have other high-quality pass catchers — Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram — so we can’t assume Ridley will consistently see big target totals.
Ridley was a terrific receiver when we last saw him. Maybe he’ll be terrific this fall. I’m just not comfortable with the pot odds we’re getting to bet on it.
Marquise Brown (WR – ARI)
Beware when the sales pitch for a player begins with, “Who else are they gonna throw to?” The alpha receiver for a lousy team isn’t automatically going to be a valuable fantasy asset simply because he’s the alpha.
Interest in “Hollywood” spiked when the Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins. It will be noted repeatedly this summer that Brown was the WR5 in PPR fantasy scoring through the first six weeks of the 2022 season while Hopkins was serving a performance-enhancing drug (PED) suspension. It should be noted, however, that only one of those six games came against a good pass defense. Give Hollywood credit for hanging an 8-78-1 stat line against an Eagles defense that ranked No. 1 in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) against the pass last season, according to Football Outsiders. But the other five teams Brown faced during that stretch ranked 17th, 20th, 24th, 27th and 31st in DVOA against the pass.
Brown has finished with fewer than 800 yards in three of his four seasons. His 1,008-yard campaign in 2021 was the only time he’s averaged better than 60 receiving yards per game over a season. Brown has averaged an uninspiring 7.2 yards per target and 1.67 yards per route run for his career.
It’s unclear when Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will be able to return to action after tearing his ACL in December. There’s little reason for the Cardinals to rush him back since they appear fully committed to a rebuild. While Murray is out, the Cardinals will be quarterbacked by journeyman Colt McCoy (who may have injury issues of his own) or rookie Clayton Tune.
Bad teams produce unstable assets. The Arizona Cardinals are going to be a five-alarm fire this season. Maybe we shouldn’t be so eager to run into the burning building.
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