Identifying “the next” type of player can be critical to winning your fantasy football league.
Finding the next type of player is sometimes a positive outcome for fantasy managers. For example, anyone who drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown last year based on what Cooper Kupp did in 2021 likely made the playoffs. However, sometimes finding the next type of player is someone fantasy players want to avoid drafting. For example, fantasy players want to avoid drafting the one-year wonder running back.
Today we’re going to look at this year’s Rhamondre Stevenson.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Finding This Year’s Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson’s 2022 Season
Last year the New England Patriots had an impressive 1-2 punch at the running back position. Damien Harris was the starter, while Stevenson was considered the high-end No. 2 guy. The former Alabama star was coming off the best year of his career in 2021. Harris was the RB13 that season, averaging 13.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Furthermore, he finished second in the NFL with 15 rushing touchdowns.
Stevenson had a quiet but solid rookie season in 2021. The former Oklahoma star was the RB41, averaging nine fantasy points per game. The rookie averaged 4.6 yards per rushing attempt, the same average as Harris. However, he didn’t have anywhere near the same touchdown luck as the veteran. Stevenson had a 3.8% touchdown rate as a rookie, while Harris had a 7.4% touchdown rate that year. Meanwhile, Brandon Bolden took over the James White role in 2021, totaling 41 receptions on 49 targets for 405 receiving yards and two touchdowns, all career highs.
Therefore, fantasy players shouldn’t have been surprised when Harris had a fifth-round ADP and was the 26th running back off the board last year. Meanwhile, Stevenson had a seventh-round ADP and was the 34th running back drafted. Frankly, the only reason the former Oklahoma star’s ADP was that high was that the Patriots lost Bolden in free agency. The second-year running back was a potential candidate to fill the team’s pass-catching role out of the backfield.
However, fantasy players should have foreseen Stevenson’s sophomore-year breakout. He averaged 17.5 touches for 77 scrimmage yards, one touchdown, and 15 fantasy points per game in the two contests Harris missed in 2021. Furthermore, Stevenson was the better running back. Harris averaged 1.99 yards created per touch in 2021, ranking 25th among running backs. Meanwhile, the rookie averaged 3.09 yards created per touch, finishing 15th.
Yes, it took an injury to Harris for Stevenson to take over the backfield. However, the second-year star took the job and ran away with it. The former Oklahoma star was the RB11 last season, averaging 12.6 fantasy points per game. More importantly, he played at least 55% of the snaps in all but three games last season, while Harris saw more than 42% of the snaps only twice.
So which second-year player is in a split backfield but could become a top-12 running back in 2023?
This Year’s Rhamondre Stevenson Is…
Fantasy players should target James Cook this season, as he is the most likely candidate to be this year’s Rhamondre Stevenson. Ironically, Cook is in a split backfield with Damien Harris after the veteran signed a one-year contract with the Buffalo Bills this offseason.
Last year Stevenson had seventh-round ADP and was the 34th running back off the board. This year Cook is the 31st running back drafted and also has a seventh-round ADP, according to FantasyPros ADP.
Cook’s fantasy situation has changed this year from last season. Devin Singletary is now with the Houston Texans, and Harris is coming off an injury-plagued year. Many believe the Bills downgraded at running back this offseason, going from Singletary to Harris. More importantly, the rookie was one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL last season.
The former Georgia Bulldog averaged 2.9 yards created per touch last season, ranking 21st among running backs. Furthermore, Cook gained 10 or more yards on 13.5% of his rushing attempts. More importantly, the rookie led the NFL in breakaway run rate (12.1%). Meanwhile, the second-year player has been the talk of training camp. Josh Allen and the coaching staff expect a big year from Cook in 2023, and fantasy players should too.
Another potential candidate to be this year’s Rhamondre Stevenson is Antonio Gibson. He has a similar ADP to Cook this year and Stevenson in 2021. Gibson has an eighth-round ADP and is the 34th running back off the board.
While the former Memphis star is heading into his fourth NFL season instead of his second, Gibson is part of a split backfield with Brian Robinson Jr. However, will that be the case for long?
Last year Gibson was the RB30, averaging 9.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career low. However, the former Memphis star was a top-12 running back as a rookie two years ago. Many will point to Robinson’s arrival as to why Gibson’s fantasy production fell off a cliff in 2022. Yet, that’s not completely the case.
The third-year running back averaged more fantasy points per game than the rookie last season. Furthermore, he had more rushing touchdowns despite averaging 7.2 fewer rushing attempts per game. Meanwhile, J.D. McKissic is no longer on the team. Last year Gibson had 46 receptions on 58 targets for 353 receiving yards, all career highs. He should post better numbers this season as the team’s full-time pass-catching running back.
More importantly, the Washington Commanders hired Eric Bieniemy to replace the awful Scott Turner this offseason. Last year Bieniemy turned Jerick McKinnon into a low-end RB2 despite having only 72 rushing attempts, thanks to 56 receptions and nine receiving touchdowns, both career highs. Meanwhile, the Washington coaching staff has repeatedly mentioned the former Memphis star this offseason. Now that the team has a creative mind calling the offense, fantasy players shouldn’t be surprised if Gibson has another RB1 finish this year.
More ‘Finding This Year’s’ Series
- Finding This Year’s Evan Engram
- Finding This Year’s Christian Kirk
- Finding This Year’s Josh Jacobs
- Finding This Year’s Dameon Pierce
- Finding This Year’s Dalton Schultz
- Finding This Year’s Jamaal Williams
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.