Identifying “the next” type of player can be critical to winning your fantasy football league.
Finding the next type of player is sometimes a positive outcome for fantasy managers. For example, anyone who drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown last year based on what Cooper Kupp did in 2021 likely made the playoffs. However, sometimes finding the next type of player is someone fantasy players want to avoid drafting. For example, fantasy players want to avoid drafting the one-year wonder running back.
Today, we’re going to look at this year’s Dameon Pierce.
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Finding This Year’s Dameon Pierce (2023 Fantasy Football)
Dameon Pierce’s 2022 Season
The 2022 NFL Draft class had several talented running backs. While Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker III led the way, several other rookie running backs also made an impact last year. At the top of that list was Pierce.
Despite being the seventh running back selected during the 2022 NFL Draft, the former Gator ended his rookie season as the RB27, averaging 11.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Walker III and Tyler Allgeier were the only rookie running backs to score more total points than Pierce. Meanwhile, only Hall and Walker III had a higher fantasy points-per-game average than the former Gator. However, Pierce got drafted later than he should have been last year.
Many in the dynasty community were excited about the fourth-round running back because of which team drafted him. The Houston Texans had the worst running back unit in the league after the NFL Draft. Veterans Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead sat at the top of the depth chart. However, neither was a real threat to keep Pierce off the field as a rookie.
While the former Gator’s ADP rose the closer we got to the regular season, fantasy players still got a steal with Pierce last year. Most redraft leagues have their fantasy draft a couple of weeks before the start of the regular season. Pierce typically got drafted as a mid RB3, as an early sixth-round pick, at that point of the offseason. However, the former Gator far and away outperformed his ADP.
Unfortunately, a high ankle sprain ended Pierce’s rookie season after Week 14. Despite missing the final four weeks, the former Gator still finished the season as a top-30 running back. The rookie was the RB15 before missing the final month last season, averaging more fantasy points per game than Najee Harris (11) and Travis Etienne Jr. (10.6).
So, which rookie running back is getting drafted later than he should and could significantly outperform his ADP in 2023?
This Year’s Dameon Pierce Is…
Two candidates could be this year’s Dameon Pierce – De’Von Achane and Roschon Johnson. Both rookie running backs got drafted outside the first two rounds, like Pierce. Furthermore, Johnson was a fourth-round pick like the former Gator. However, that’s not the only thing these three running backs have in common.
Last year, the early appeal with Pierce was the lack of competition for backfield touches. Both players have a pathway to beating out veterans for the No. 1 running back position as a rookie.
The Miami Dolphins currently have veterans Raheem Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Myles Gaskin on the roster. While the team re-signed all three veterans this offseason, the Dolphins still used their second selection in the NFL Draft on Achane. Last year, the rookie had 196 rushing attempts for 1,102 yards and eight touchdowns at Texas A&M. He also had 36 receptions for 196 receiving yards and three touchdowns. More importantly, nearly 18% of his rushing attempts last season went for 10 or more yards.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have drastically changed their running back room this offseason. David Montgomery left in free agency, while the Bears added D’Onta Foreman. Khalil Herbert remains with the team after having some success over the first two years of his NFL career. However, that didn’t stop Chicago from drafting Johnson.
Many believed the former Longhorn should have been a Day 2 selection, giving Chicago one of the steals during the NFL Draft. While Johnson’s production at Texas was far from elite, he did split the backfield with Bijan Robinson. However, his big play ability is underrated, as he had nine runs over 15 yards last season, while Robinson had 21. The Chicago coaching staff has repeatedly talked up the rookie this offseason.
Unfortunately, neither rookie running back this year has as easy of a pathway to the starting role as Pierce did last season. Burkhead and Mack were crusty veterans with little left in the tank. The Dolphins have flirted with Dalvin Cook and reportedly offered the veteran a contract. Meanwhile, the Bears have two solid, but not elite, running backs on the roster – Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman.
However, the rookie’s lack of a clear pathway to the No. 1 running back role is a double-edged sword for fantasy players. On the one hand, it’s less likely that Achane and Johnson will turn into this year’s Dameon Pierce. Yet, it has also kept both rookie’s ADP outside the top-36 running backs.
While their situation isn’t identical to Pierce’s last year, fantasy players should draft Achane and Johnson at their current ADP. According to FantasyPros ADP, Achane is a 10th-round pick and the 41st running back off the board. Meanwhile, Johnson is coming off the board in the 14th round and as the 51st running back drafted.
Hopefully, one, if not both, of these rookies will turn into a steal for fantasy players willing to take the chance on their upside.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
