Identifying “the next” type of player can be critical to winning your fantasy football league.
Finding the next type of player is sometimes a positive outcome for fantasy managers. For example, anyone who drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown last year based on what Cooper Kupp did in 2021 likely made the playoffs. However, sometimes finding the next type of player is someone fantasy players want to avoid drafting. For example, fantasy players want to avoid drafting the one-year wonder running back.
Today, we’re going to look at this year’s Dalton Schultz.
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Finding This Year’s Dalton Schultz (2023 Fantasy Football)
Dalton Schultz’s 2022 Season
After barely playing the first two years of his NFL career, Schultz took over for an injured Blake Jarwin in 2020. The former Stanford star had 63 receptions on 89 targets for 615 receiving yards and four touchdowns that year.
However, the veteran had a breakout season in 2021. Schultz had 78 receptions on 104 targets for 808 receiving yards and eight touchdowns that year, all career highs. The Cowboys placed the franchise tag on the star tight end in the offseason, keeping Schultz under contract during the 2022 season.
Unfortunately, the veteran regressed last year. He had only 57 receptions on 69 targets for 577 receiving yards and five touchdowns, all down from the season before. More importantly, Schultz’s fantasy production also regressed.
The former Stanford star was the TE3 in 2021, averaging 10 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, a career-high. Unfortunately, Schultz was the TE10 last season, averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran was inconsistent for fantasy managers. He scored under six fantasy points in 53.3% of the contests last season. Schultz scored 46.1% of his fantasy points in only three games.
Last year, the veteran had a sixth-round ADP and was the sixth tight end off the board. Schultz was drafted outside the top five but ahead of Dallas Goedert, Pat Freiermuth and a few other better tight ends.
So, which tight end with a top-10 ADP will severely regress in 2023?
This Year’s Dalton Schultz Is…
Fantasy managers should avoid drafting Evan Engram this season, as he is this year’s Schultz. According to FantasyPros ADP, the veteran is the TE8 off the board, behind Darren Waller and ahead of Freiermuth.
Engram started his career with the New York Giants, having an excellent rookie season. Unfortunately, his production fell off a cliff. The veteran tight end averaged only 6.1 fantasy points per game over his final two years with the Giants.
Last year, the former Ole Miss star was the TE6, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Engram had the highest finish of his career in 2022. However, his 8.3 fantasy points per game average didn’t rank in the top half for his career. Furthermore, he was wildly inconsistent last season.
The veteran had a hot four-week stretch late last year. From Week 13 through Week 16, Engram had 31 receptions on 40 targets for 367 receiving yards and three touchdowns. He was the TE1 during that four-week window, averaging 17.6 fantasy points per game, three more fantasy points per contest than any other tight end. By comparison, Travis Kelce averaged 15.4 fantasy points per game last year.
However, the veteran tight end had 42.5% of his receptions, 40.8% of his targets, 47.9% of his receiving yards and 75% of his touchdowns during that four-week window. Furthermore, he scored half of his fantasy points for the year during those four matchups.
Unfortunately, Engram struggled in the other 13 contests last season, averaging only 4.5 targets and only 5.4 fantasy points per game. Over a 17-game space, he would have ended the year as the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average.
The Jaguars improved their offense in the offseason. Jacksonville added tight end Brenton Strange and running back Tank Bigsby during the NFL Draft. However, Calvin Ridley was the highlight addition. The star receiver will play a significant role on offense this year. After having a 22.6% target share last season, Engram is due for severe regression in 2023.
More ‘Finding This Year’s’ Series
- Finding This Year’s Evan Engram
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.