Finding This Year’s Christian Kirk (2023 Fantasy Football)

Identifying “the next” type of player can sometimes be the key to winning a fantasy football championship.

In 2022, Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Christian Kirk saw 150 targets and caught 99 for 1,238 yards and 10 touchdowns. This was his first season with the team and was the second season in a back-to-back 1,000-yard campaign.

So who’s this year’s Christian Kirk?

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Finding This Year’s Christian Kirk (2023 Fantasy Football)

Identifying this was a bit more complicated. Here are some of Kirk’s notable characteristics (all statistics are courtesy of Pro Football Focus):

Led the league in slot percentage of all receivers with at least 100 targets.
Back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.
More than 50% of his receptions came from zero-nine yards.
10 touchdowns.
9.6 average depth of target.
63rd percentile in the 40-yard dash, per MockDraftable.
WR25 ADP in PPR leagues.

It’s difficult to find a player that’s a one-for-one match for this, but here are two that somewhat stick out.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be a rookie on a depth chart this season with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Like Kirk, he’ll play primarily out of the slot. We didn’t get a 40-yard dash time from him at the NFL Combine, though, unfortunately.

Smith-Njigba ran out of the slot more than 85% of the time the past two seasons with Ohio State, and he recorded a 9.3 average depth of target in 2021.

He’s around the same height and weight as Kirk and on a team that should allow him to get open plenty. Will he hit 150 targets? That might be difficult, but getting over 100 in his rookie season isn’t a crazy thought.

Smith-Njigba is the WR33 per PPR ADP and has a strong chance to outperform that.

Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV)

Jakobi Meyers had 126 targets in 2021 and 96 in 2022. Kirk had 112 in 2021 with the Arizona Cardinals. Meyers is the type of player that could get 150 in the right situation. He doesn’t have the speed Kirk does, but he should be the No. 2 option on a consistent Jimmy Garoppolo-led offense behind a monster in Davante Adams.

The one curious element of Meyers is how often he’ll be used in the slot with Hunter Renfrow on the roster. Meyers also posted a larger average depth per target last year than Kirk and had a higher yards-per-route run average of 1.90 compared to Kirk’s 1.70.

Meyers has commanded targets recently. Going as the WR56 in PPR leagues, you could do a lot worse.