Setting parameters for a sleeper is imperative. To qualify as a sleeper for the purposes of this piece, the wideout had to be selected after the 144th pick. Since Underdog Fantasy’s large-field best ball tournaments have 12 teams, the cutoff used for this piece means the options are often available after the 12th round. However, to avoid drifting into longer-shot dart throws, the two highlighted wide receivers also have an ADP before the 180th pick.
Setting parameters for a sleeper is imperative. To qualify as a sleeper for the purposes of this piece, the wideout had to be selected after the 144th pick. Since Underdog Fantasy’s large-field best ball tournaments have 12 teams, the cutoff used for this piece means the options are often available after the 12th round. However, to avoid drifting into longer-shot dart throws, the two highlighted wide receivers also have an ADP before the 180th pick.
Sleeper Wide Receivers in Best Ball Formats
Alec Pierce (WR – IND): 149.6 ADP at Underdog Fantasy
The 2022 Colts were one of the most disappointing clubs in the NFL. Their musical chairs of failed veteran quarterbacks landed on an entirely washed-up Matt Ryan. In fact, Ryan’s play was so lousy he was benched for a bit for Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles.
Even with the dreadful quarterback play, Pierce showed encouraging signs during his rookie campaign. He’s a big-bodied field-stretching wide receiver with elite speed for his size. Fortunately, Pierce isn’t merely a high-level tester and puts his size and speed to good use on the field in pads.
Pierce’s play earned a rock-solid review from Matt Harmon of Reception Perception and Yahoo! Fantasy in his Reception Perception player profile. Harmon was the most complimentary of Pierce’s work on the nine, slant and post routes for the games he sampled.
Pierce’s lid-lifting usage also showed up in many of his stats. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pierce was tied for the 39th-deepest average depth of target (12.4-yard aDOT) among 97 wide receivers targeted at least 40 times in the regular season and the postseason last year. Furthermore, last year, 50% of his targets were medium (30.3%) or deep (19.7%). Yet, the sad collection of quarterbacks passing to him completed only 20 of 38 targets that traveled at least 10 yards downfield. And per Sports Info Solutions (SIS), he was tied for 44th in Intended Air Yards (938).
Pierce should be a good stylistic fit with athletically-gifted and rocket-armed rookie Anthony Richardson. Per PFF, among 93 FBS quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks in 2022, Richardson had the sixth-deepest average depth of target (11.5 aDOT). Moreover, he was tied for 29th in Big-Time-Throw percentage (5.5 BTT%). Richardson earned his highest PFF passing grades on deep passes (20-plus yards) and medium passes (10 to 19 yards downfield) last year. He completed a rock-solid 40.6% of his passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield. And Richardson’s PFF passing grade on deep passes was the 16th best among 101 quarterbacks with at least 35 deep attempts.
Meanwhile, among 60 quarterbacks who attempted at least five deep passes in 2022, Ryan was 18th in PFF’s passing grade, Ehlinger was 30th and Foles was 58th. They combined to complete only 13 of 38 pass attempts that traveled at least 20 yards in 2022.
Pierce will have duds this year while Richardson adjusts to the NFL. However, Richardson’s big arm and ability to extend plays with his legs should allow Pierce to explode in a few contests, making him a better-in-best-ball wideout and an appealing choice around his ADP.
Curtis Samuel (WR – WAS): 173.7 ADP
The Commanders could be a fun offense this year. I’m optimistic about the potential of second-year quarterback Sam Howell, as I’ve voiced before. Still, the presence of capable backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a plus for all of Washington’s pass-catching weapons since it elevates the offense’s floor. Brissett waits in the wings to competently lead the offense if Howell is a train wreck.
New offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy could also give the passing game a spark. Sadly, there isn’t play-calling data to lean on for Bieniemy’s offensive tendencies. He was Kansas City’s offensive coordinator for the previous five years. However, head coach Andy Reid called the plays. And, obviously, the Chiefs were awarded play-calling luxuries Patrick Mahomes provides that Howell and Brissett — or any other quarterback on the planet, for that matter — don’t offer.
Still, the Chiefs played at a fast pace and aired it out a ton. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs were seventh, third and third in situation-neutral pace from 2020 through 2022. And per the nfelo app, they were first in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE) in those seasons. Again, Mahomes’s unmatched excellence allows the Chiefs to put a ton on his plate. But Bieniemy will hopefully have the Commanders playing fast and passing at an average or above-average rate.
There can be enough meat on the bone for multiple pass-catchers to have fantasy success if the Commanders pass at even a slightly below-average rate if they also play fast. And Samuel was able to carve out a meaningful role in Washington’s offense last year, even in the 12 games when Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson were also healthy. During those 12 games, Samuel was second on the team in targets (61), second in receptions (45), third in routes (364), third in receiving yards (419), third in touchdown receptions (three), played the slot for 73.7% of his passing snaps and had a 6.0-yard aDOT. Samuel also ran the ball 28 times for 116 yards and a touchdown. So, in the 12-game sample, Samuel averaged 5.1 targets per game, 3.8 receptions per game and 44.6 scrimmage yards per game.
His 8.3 half PPR points per game (PPG) during those games would have ranked as the WR42 during the 2022 fantasy season (Week 1 through Week 17). And, as a reminder, Washington’s quarterback play was lackluster last year. Yet, Samuel is the WR75 in Underdog Fantasy ADP currently. So, he appears to be a value, even if Washington’s offense remains underwhelming. But if they make a leap with a new offensive coordinator and new quarterbacks, Samuel could build on last year’s production. So, at the least, Samuel is a rock-solid option in Washington’s top-heavy pass-catching corps, making him a helpful glue player on best ball rosters.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
