We asked our top analysts to weigh in on every NFL team’s biggest fantasy football question. Andrew Erickson, Pat Fitzmaurice, Derek Brown, Ryan Wormeli and Joe Pisapia offer their insights on many of the questions that you have been asking heading into draft season.

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Biggest Questions for 2023 Fantasy Football

Cincinnati Bengals

Does Joe Mixon still have RB1 upside?

Joe Mixon is a tricky player for fantasy managers to handle this year. After finishing RB3 in fantasy scoring (half-point PPR) in 2021, he was RB12 last year despite missing two games and having the final game of the season canceled because of the Damar Hamlin situation. Mixon averaged 58.1 rushing yards per game, the fewest since his rookie season, and 3.9 yards per carry. His production was buoyed by expanded usage in the passing game. Mixon established new career highs in targets (75), receptions (60) and receiving yards (441). But will Mixon’s expanded usage in the passing game stick? There were offseason reports that the Bengals might release Mixon, who has a big salary-cap number for 2023 and was charged with aggravated menacing by Cincinnati police earlier this year. The Bengals spent a fifth-round draft pick on Chase Brown, who averaged 27.3 carries a game for Illinois last season. Mixon, who turns 27 in July, has been a reliable workhorse for the Bengals, and with the team considered a Super Bowl contender, maybe the status quo will hold in the Cincinnati backfield. But it’s also possible the Bengals give some of Mixon’s work to Brown and/or Trayveon Williams as they prepare for what could be a Mixon-less future.

Dallas Cowboys

Can Tony Pollard handle the FULL workload?

Tony Pollard has been a machine on a per-touch basis as NFL running back, but part of that efficiency stems from him never seeing a full-blown workhorse-like load. He’s never had 200-plus carries any year of his four-year NFL career. Dating back to his college days, Pollard never attempted more than 60 carries at Memphis. 2022 was the first time in Pollard’s football career he totaled more than 200 touches when one considers his work as a receiver.

And that’s the main point to get here with Pollard. Even though he ranked outside the top 25 in touches per game last season, he still finished as the RB7. From Weeks 7-16, Pollard was the highest-scoring running back in fantasy averaging 19.3 points per game in half-PPR. And that was just on a workload south of 18 touches per game. Simply put, any additional touches Pollard sees in 2023 are just gravy on top of his super-efficient production profile. He doesn’t need to see 25-plus touches per game to dominate in fantasy; 15-18 is more than enough for him to thrive. And I’d lean more on the higher side, considering the current depth chart behind Pollard in Dallas. Malik Davis, Deuce Vaughn, Rico Dowdle and Ronald Jones aren’t going to be pushing Pollard for playing time. Furthermore, Pollard is likely going to play this season on the franchise tag, meaning he will be a free agent in 2024. Ergo, Dallas has all the incentives in the world to run him into the ground in what should be a solid rushing attack in 2023.
-Andrew Erickson/Joe Pisapia

Los Angeles Rams

Is 2023 finally Cam Akers szn?

It’s now or never for Cam Akers. The former 2020 second-rounder has had a roller-coaster career through three seasons filled with some great highs and rock-bottom lows. One minute he’s touting the rock 20-plus times per game as the Rams bell cow, and the next minute he’s a healthy scratch. Throw in an Achilles injury that he was able to come back from in the same calendar year, and there’s virtually nothing that hasn’t been thrown Akers’s way for him to overcome.

And that’s the most important part to remember about the just-turned-24-year-old as we project him forward. This dude has been through the absolute ringer of adversities faced by an NFL running back. And yet, he overcame it all during the last part of the 2022 season when he was LA’s entire offense. He finished the season as the RB4 in the final six weeks leading the NFL in rushing yards (85 yards/game). He’s finally gained the full trust of head coach Sean McVay who has already spoken about Akers being a “central figure” in their plans in 2023. With Matthew Stafford returning and little competition for touches (Sony Michel, 2.9 ypc in 2022 – child, please) in the L.A. backfield, 2023 will be Cam Akers szn.
-Andrew Erickson

New Orleans Saints

How should fantasy managers play the looming Alvin Kamara suspension?

I find myself frequently avoiding the Saints RB room in many of my articles due to the total ambiguity of the situation. As of this writing, Alvin Kamara’s court date is set for July 31, with any repercussions likely following that. For the sake of uncertainty, let’s estimate Kamara is suspended for the first six weeks of the season. That aligns with what players typically get knocked on for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. And considering how soft the Saints’ schedule is overall and to open the season, I’d bet the team leans into Kamara taking on the suspension earlier rather than later should he go through the appeal process. Teams want to hit their stride in the second half of the year, and keeping Kamara fresh would be in their best interest.

With Kamara out for six weeks, Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller immediately become extremely enticing options. Ergo, you should be drafting both with ADPs outside the top 30 and sometimes top-40 RBs (platform-specific). The team invested in both RBs through free agency and the NFL Draft because they likely knew Kamara would be slated to miss some time. Why else would they sign Williams to a three-year deal with $8 million guaranteed? Or draft Miller 71st overall? They are going to have roles when Kamara misses time at some point this season. That’s just not reflected enough in their ADPs. Furthermore, their ADPs are at a price where you could still draft them at value, knowing that Kamara wouldn’t miss games (injuries withstanding). Williams is being drafted alongside the likes of A.J. Dillon, Rashaad Penny, Khalil Herbert, Elijah Mitchell, etc. A la the same tier of No. 2 real-life RBs he would already be drafted around should Kamara have no suspension looming. He’s free money in drafts.

Remember, the Saints coaching staff has never shied away from featuring the likes of backup grinders such as Latavius Murray/Mark Ingram with a healthy AK41 and when he has missed time in the past. Miller is more of the home-run lottery ticket option, as his explosive skill set gives him the ability to usurp Williams entirely. I prefer him more in the best ball format, as he seems destined to be a featured asset down the stretch. As for Kamara himself, his price is more accurately baking in his potential suspension, unlike with the other two RBs. But aside from his suspension, he has NOT a lot going in his favor. Williams and Miller are legitimate snap/touch threats, especially in the red zone. Taysom Hill remains a threat in the red zone.

Kamara’s receiving usage was hot garbage last season, with his target share dropping from 22% to 11%. The Saints RB never caught more than two passes in any game from Weeks 13-18, and his days as a game-breaking receiver seem to be long gone. His rushing production was also subpar, finishing second worst in the rushing EPA (-41) and managing only two games with over 65 rushing yards before the schedule eased up in the final four games. So, although I understand the “get Kamara at a discount” rhetoric due to his suspension, I think the better way to approach the better ambiguity is through the untapped upside of the other RBs on the depth chart, particularly with the rookie Miller.
-Andrew Erickson

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