The 2023 NFL regular season is almost here. However, we must get through training camp before we can play meaningful football games. Every year there are exciting position battles that happen in training camp. More importantly, they have an impact on the fantasy football world.
Today let’s look at three positional battles that will impact how fantasy players handle their drafts – the Seattle Seahawks’ wide receivers, the Buffalo Bills’ running backs, and the Bills’ wide receivers and tight ends.
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Fantasy Football Position Battles to Watch: Seahawks RBs, Bills RBs, WRs & TEs
Seahawks RBs
- Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA) (ADP: 40.3 | RB15)
- Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA) (ADP: 104.3 | RB36)
Damn you, Pete Carroll! Yes, I am still mad that the Seahawks created this nightmare fantasy backfield. Walker and Charbonnet are two of my favorite younger running backs. Unfortunately, they will spend the best years of their careers playing together, limiting their fantasy upside. While drafting Charbonnet to pair with Walker makes sense for Seattle on the field, it has severely hurt the fantasy football world.
After missing Week 1 recovering from offseason hernia surgery, Walker was a fantasy star as a rookie. When Rashaad Penny inevitably got hurt, the former Michigan State star took over as the featured running back. He was the RB6 starting in Week 6 through the rest of the season, averaging 14.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Walker had higher fantasy points per game average than several bigger-name running backs during that span, including Saquon Barkley and Najee Harris.
While the addition of Charbonnet limit’s the second-year running back’s upside, it doesn’t destroy his fantasy value. As a rookie, Walker only played more than 77% of the snaps in two games. Ironically he somewhat struggled in those two contests, averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game. More importantly, Walker was 11th in rushing attempts last season but finished third in breakaway runs. Despite having to split the backfield work, the second-year running back will be productive for fantasy players. However, I feel more confident drafting Walker close to a low-end RB2 than the 15th running back off the board. Yet, he isn’t someone I would absolutely avoid in drafts at his current ADP.
Meanwhile, Charbonnet is one of my favorite middle-round running backs to target in best-ball leagues. Hopefully, Walker stays healthy this season. However, the former UCLA star could find himself in the same situation Walker was in last year when Penny got hurt. The rookie becomes a league winner as a ninth-round pick if the former Michigan State star suffers a season-ending injury. More importantly, Charbonnet will have standalone value as a rookie, even if Walker maintains the lead role.
Last year the Seattle backfield had 352 rushing attempts and 70 receptions. Walker accounted for 64.8% of the attempts and 38.6% of the receptions last season. That means the rest of the backfield accounted for 39.6% of the touches. The majority of those touches will belong to Charbonnet in 2023. Furthermore, the Seahawks didn’t use a second-round pick on the rookie for him to be Walker’s handcuff. Instead, fantasy players should expect a 60-40-like split in the backfield. Consider Walker and Charbonnet a watered-down version of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt from 2019 through 2021. Neither running back will be elite, but both will have meaningful fantasy value.
Conclusion:
- Target: Zach Charbonnet
- Risky: Kenneth Walker III
- Dart Throw: None
- Avoid: None
Bills RBs
- James Cook (RB – BUF) (ADP: 83.7 | RB30)
- Damien Harris (RB – BUF) (ADP: 114.3 | RB40)
- Latavius Murray (RB – BUF) (ADP: 260.3 | RB75)
Devin Singletary led the Bills in rushing yards each of the past four years, averaging 787.8 yards per season. Furthermore, he averaged 168 rushing attempts per year. While the veteran has led the team in rushing since getting drafted in 2019, Singletary signed with the Houston Texans in the offseason, creating a hole in the Bills’ starting running back spot.
Last year Buffalo used a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Cook. Many were excited about the rookie and called him a sleeper. Unfortunately, the former Georgia star was only the RB45 last season, averaging six half-point PPR fantasy points per game. However, he will have the first crack at replacing Singletary as the starter. Last year the rookie led all running backs in breakaway run rate (12.1%). Furthermore, 13.5% of his rushing attempts went for 10 or more yards as a rookie. While he likely won’t become a fantasy star, Cook’s big play ability makes him a value at his current ADP.
Unfortunately, Harris struggled to stay healthy last season, missing six games and leaving a few others early. However, he was the RB13 in 2021, averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game. The veteran had 15 rushing touchdowns that year, a career-high and the second most in the NFL. Harris was also eighth in the league in breakaway run rate (6.9%) that season. Reportedly the Bills wanted to add a “bigger running back” this offseason and take some of the goal-line work off of Josh Allen‘s plate. Harris will be a steal at his ADP if he can find the end zone eight or more times in 2023.
Meanwhile, the wild card in the group is Murray. Many considered the veteran’s career was winding down. However, he joined the Denver Broncos last season after the team lost Javonte Williams to a season-ending torn ACL. Murray was productive during his time in Denver, totaling 160 rushing attempts for 703 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games. Furthermore, he was even better once the Broncos released Melvin Gordon. The veteran was the RB16, averaging 70.6 rushing yards and 11.1 fantasy points per game over the final seven weeks last season. Murray could become a reliable flex option for fantasy players if Harris struggles to stay healthy.
Conclusion:
- Target: James Cook, Damien Harris
- Risky: None
- Dart Throw: Latavius Murray
- Avoid: None
Bills WRs & TEs
- Stefon Diggs (WR – BUF) (ADP: 10.3 | WR5)
- Gabe Davis (WR – BUF) (ADP: 90.3 | WR41)
- Dalton Kincaid (TE – BUF) (ADP: 139.3 | TE16)
- Dawson Knox (TE – BUF) (ADP: 172.3 | TE21)
- Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) (ADP: 226.7 | WR88)
The NFL and fantasy football community spent much of the early offseason talking about Buffalo’s wide receiver unit. Many expected them to target a wide receiver early during the NFL Draft. Instead, they used their first-round pick on Kincaid. Furthermore, the Bills waited until the fifth round to select a wide receiver – Justin Shorter. However, the team did sign a pair of veteran wide receivers in free agency, adding Trent Sherfield from the Miami Dolphins and Deonte Harty from the New Orleans Saints.
While the Bills made several additions to their receiving core this offseason, Diggs remains the focal point of the passing attack. The superstar averaged over 16 half-point PPR fantasy points per game last season, making it the second time he’s reached that average during his three years in Buffalo. Furthermore, he was the WR4, the fourth top-12 finish in his career. More importantly, Diggs had 1,429 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022, both career highs. The veteran also averaged 2.49 yards per route run, the third-high average of his career.
Unfortunately, there is a concern with the superstar receiver. Diggs struggled in the second half last season compared to the first half. The veteran averaged 109.4 receiving yards and 19.6 fantasy points per game over the first nine contests. However, he averaged only 63.4 receiving yards and 12.3 fantasy points per game over the final seven games. Hopefully, last year’s second-half struggles were a fluke and not a sign of things to come. While Diggs won’t be a bust, I’m not drafting him as the fifth wide receiver off the board. CeeDee Lamb and Amon-Ra St. Brown have a lower ADP than the veteran. Yet, I’ll draft both before Diggs.
Last year everyone called for Davis to have a breakout season. The third-year receiver was the WR27, averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. He had 48 receptions on 93 targets for 836 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, all career highs. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the breakout everyone was expecting. However, fantasy players should feel confident drafting Davis at his current ADP. Last year he was a fourth or fifth-round pick. This year the veteran is coming off the board in the eighth round. It’s a contract year for the former Central Florida receiver. Hopefully, Davis can stay healthy and reach his ceiling before hitting the open market next spring.
Buffalo surprised everyone during the NFL Draft when they traded up to secure Kincaid. While many thought the team could select a wide receiver in the first round, no one predicted the Bills would draft the former Utah star. There have been reports that Buffalo will use Kincaid in the Cole Beasley slot receiver role. While that will likely be the case, fantasy players should temper expectations for the rookie.
Tight ends tend to struggle during their rookie season. Over the past 12 years, there have been only two tight ends to end their rookie season inside the top-12 – Kyle Pitts (TE7) in 2021 and Evan Engram (TE6) in 2017. More importantly, Kincaid won’t see the target volume those two did in their rookie season. Pitts had 110 targets, while Engram had 115. Last year Diggs and Davis combined for a 43% target share. Meanwhile, no other player had more than 65 targets in 2022. While his future is bright, Kincaid is only a late-round dart throw this year.
While Diggs and Davis were Josh Allen’s top two pass catchers last season, Knox and Isaiah McKenzie finished third on the team with 65 targets each. Meanwhile, no other wide receiver or tight on the team had more than 20 targets in 2022. Unfortunately, Knox’s fantasy value was already limited and now crushed by Kincaid. The veteran had nine receiving touchdowns and averaged 9.3 fantasy points per game in 2021, both career highs. However, Knox had six touchdowns and averaged 7.4 fantasy points per game last season despite seeing an increase in his route participation rate.
Some hoped Shakir would be a potential sleeper or dart-throw candidate this season. However, the former Boise State receiver is more likely to get cut before Week 1 than make a fantasy impact this year. More importantly, Shakir failed to make an impact as a rookie. His best performance came in Week 5 in Buffalo’s 38-3 thrashing of the Pittsburgh Steelers, scoring 15 fantasy points. Unfortunately, he scored only 14.1 fantasy points the rest of the season, never totaling more than 3.3 in any contest. Shakir isn’t worthy of a late-round pick in deeper best-ball drafts, let alone standard-sized redraft leagues.
Conclusion:
- Target: Gabe Davis
- Risky: Stefon Diggs
- Dart Throw: Dalton Kincaid
- Avoid: Dawson Knox, Khalil Shakir
Position Battles: Players to Watch & Predictions
- Steelers WRs, Eagles RBs & Commanders WRs
- Chiefs RBs, Chiefs WRs & Dolphins RBs
- Giants WRs & Cowboys TEs
- 49ers QBs, Buccaneers QBs & Colts QBs
- Cardinals WRs, Commanders RBs, Patriots WRs
- Texans RBs, Lions RBs, Vikings RBs
- Bears WRs, Bears RBs, Ravens WRs
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
