When it comes to drafting your fantasy football team, sometimes it can feel more confusing than it needs to be. While deep dives into data and analytics are great, there are often a few ways to get a leg up on your competition that don’t feel like rocket science. Andrew Erickson has shared one of those strategies to follow as you’re making decisions between players on draft day: prioritize players on good offenses. Erickson lays out his case in that article. Below we’ll take a look at a few fantasy football draft picks to consider on one of these offenses, the Chargers.
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Fantasy Football Players to Target
Another top unit that has taken a slight hit from last season, the L.A. Chargers has gone from second overall in team ADP down to fifth. Mike Williams went from WR15, a Round 3 pick to WR27 in Round 5. Keenan Allen went from WR13, a Round 3 pick to WR17 in early Round 4. Justin Herbert has fallen from the QB2 to the QB7.
And that’s where the value is.
Speaking of Herbert…
Absolutely SMASH as his current ADP as the QB7.
The fact that one can draft Herbert – who scored the second-most fantasy points among all players in 2021, averaging 23.3 points per game – as the QB7 off the board is beyond elite fantasy value.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 14, 2023
Keep in mind that last season, Herbert played just four games with a fully healthy combination of Allen and Williams. He also suffered a rib injury which further limited his fantasy production. Considering all the injuries, it should surprise no one that Herbert posted a career-low 3.6% TD rate, nearly two percentage points down from the previous season. As a result, Herbert also failed to eclipse 22 fantasy points per game, a mark he surpassed as a rookie and in his second season. But with fully healthy weapons, first-round pick Quentin Johnston added to the fold AND Kellen Moore taking over as the offensive play caller…
There’s never been a better time to BUY Herbert’s suppressed ADP. In Moore’s first season as the Cowboys offensive coordinator, Dak Prescott finished second in the NFL in passing yards (4,902).
Johnston and Gerald Everett are great ways to get exposure to Herbert’s arm later in drafts.
The Chargers were the only team to have three different WRs averaging 35-plus routes run per game last season
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 21, 2023
Johnston was a menace with the ball in his hands, finishing 7th in his draft class in yards after the catch per reception (8.9, 19 forced missed tackles). Perfect fit in Moore’s scheme, which aims to create chunk plays. WR44 is too cheap for this guy. Think of a potential Josh Palmer role, but amped up to the degree of a 1st-round WR talent.
RB Joshua Kelley is also an intriguing last-round pick that could be a major difference-maker. The Chargers finished second in fantasy points among RBs last season. Dallas (Kellen Moore’s old team) finished 4th.
3️⃣ RB Joshua Kelley: In the LAC's high-octane offense, Kelley could step up if Austin Ekeler's workload is lightened.
He showcased his potential in 2022, setting career highs and earning the trust of the coaches. With his role poised to grow.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) June 22, 2023
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Leverage ADP
As you prepare for your fantasy football draft, it’s important to have a sense of rankings and where players are being drafted. Of course, this will change league-to-league, but you can usually get a sense of where a player is likely to go in your draft with a little fantasy football research. To really zero in on a player’s average draft position (ADP), you can use our consensus ADP. This, combined with our Expert Consensus Ranking, will allow you to get a sense of players that are drafted earlier or later in general drafts versus where the experts would recommend you targeting them.
For example, if you have a player with an ADP of No. 12 overall, but our consensus of experts view them as a top-five player, that’s probably someone you want to consider targeting in the back-end of the first round. On the flip side, if a player has an average draft position of No. 5 overall but our experts view the player as outside of the top-10 overall in their rankings, you’re likely better off allowing one of your league mates to make that draft pick.
