The quarterback position is having a bit of a revival this season. Coming on the heels of spectacular seasons from Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen, signal callers are getting pushed up draft boards going into the 2023 fantasy football season.
In early Underdog best ball drafts, these three all-world quarterbacks were going as early as the high teens, mid-second round or so. Even now, when they’re going around pick 21 (Mahomes) and pick 27 (Allen), those three amigos are going in the same range of running backs Tony Pollard, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Josh Jacobs. This might have seemed a little crazy a year or two ago, but there is some merit to securing a top quarterback early.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Mahomes passed for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns, adding 358 yards on the ground and another four scores. His 25.2 fantasy points per game were right in line with his averages of 22.0 (2021) and 25.6 (2020). Allen’s 24.3 average last year is right there with 24.6 (2021) and his breakout 25.4 (2020). And even though Hurts arrived at elite QB status last year with 760 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on top of 3,701 passing yards and 22 more scores in 15 games, everything around him screams that he’ll repeat.
So paying up for the elite quarterback has been a strategy, and it has its merits. While there can be some variance in the production from some skill players – and let’s not even get into the attrition factor with running backs – the top-tier players under center are primed to deliver on that high fantasy draft capital.
But what of the vast majority of fantasy players who don’t want to pay the premium and would rather grab their anchor running back and pile up wide receivers? Or the Zero-RB zealots who want to collect wideouts like they’re on clearance at the dollar store? Those and others are going to need quarterbacks themselves, and there is a strategy for them.
For those playing in single-QB formats, FantasyPros has developed a Quarterback by Committee (QBBC) Finder tool to pair up combinations of quarterbacks, with recommendations on which one to play on a weekly basis. This is a step up from streaming the position, and it focuses on playing the best matchups weekly to give fantasy players the optimal plays, even when they’re going against those goliaths among quarterbacks.
The QBBC tool takes the quarterbacks after an ADP of the fantasy players’ choosing. It can be as high as the QB7 ADP, which would highlight quarterbacks taken after Justin Herbert, and combines duos to be drafted together and recommends which to start every week. The tool can be customized to find quarterback pairings all the way down to those being drafted after an ADP of QB21. There is an added feature where QBBC can even find a good partner quarterback if one of the elite players is taken. For example, if Mahomes is selected, the tool will determine which is the best bye-week fill-in during Mahomes’ Week 10 bye. (Hint: Aaron Rodgers is playing in Las Vegas that week. Wink, wink.)
This article is the first in a series that is going to highlight some of the QBBC pairings for the 2023 NFL season. We’ll look at four combinations, going deeper to make sure there were no players repeated for this feature. The projected average points per week are in parentheses. To make it a little more challenging, we’re setting the tool to pick quarterback combos with an ADP after QB10 – using FantasyPros ADP. Some of these duos are pretty intriguing and still offer great upside on a weekly basis.
Combo-QB Strategy
#6 Daniel Jones (NYG) + Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) (avg. 19.4 pts/week)
Can you say New York, New York? Yes, their home games may be in New Jersey, but this Big Apple pairing features the dual threat in Jones (QB13), while Rodgers (QB17) is now playing for the Jets and throwing to Garrett Wilson, who has an ADP of WR10. Both quarterbacks have seen an upgrade in their pass catchers going into this season, with Jones gaining tight end Darren Waller and rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt, the 2022 Fred Biletnikoff Award winner.
Jones is slated to start nine times, according to the QBBC tool. He opens the season with a potential shootout with the Cowboys coming to MetLife Stadium, followed by a trip to Arizona to take on the Cardinals’ rebuilding defense that was 24th in passing yards allowed in 2022. Weeks 5 and 6 feature trips to AFC East powerhouses Miami and Buffalo, which could mean Jones will have to shift into high gear to keep up.
Dome games in Las Vegas and Dallas could give Jones great conditions for putting up points. And looking ahead to Week 17, fantasy championship week, the Rams and their defense with a very young secondary will get a great test from Danny Dimes.
Rodgers gets slotted into the starting spot in Week 3 when the Patriots travel to play the Jets. Rodgers has faced a Bill Belichick defense four times in his career, the most recent being last year, when the quarterback went near-psychedelic by completing 21 of 35 passes for 251 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. The next week Mahomes comes to town, and that game should have a high over/under, making Rodgers an easy start.
Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, Rodgers has a Week 15 showdown in sunny Miami with Tua Tagovailoa. In Week 16, the Commanders come to Jersey, and Rodgers gets the start with Jones traveling to Philadelphia.
#9 Geno Smith (SEA) + Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) (avg. 19.2 pts/week)
This pairing features quarterbacks who far exceeded expectations, and ADP, in 2022. Smith (ADP: QB15) was the surprise QB5 last year, and he gains the top wide receiver in the NFL Draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a power running back with pass-catching chops in Zach Charbonnet.
Tagovailoa (ADP: QB11) appears to be healthy after recovering from a pair of scary concussions. The Alabama product has arguably the best wide receiver duo in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and when that trio was firing on all cylinders, it was volcanic. Tagovailoa averaged 20.4 fantasy points per game in the 11 complete games he played, including the 469-yard, six-touchdown destruction of the Ravens in Week 2.
Smith is projected to start the first four weeks of the season with a home game against the Rams and trips to play the Lions and Giants in that span. Tagovailoa is tapped to start both games against New England, with a trip to Kansas City being a salivating matchup that could see some offensive fireworks. Home games in Week 11 against the Raiders and Week 14 vs. the Titans are tantalizing. Las Vegas was 29th in passing yards allowed, with Tennessee dead last.
Week 15 is a tough one, even with both quarterbacks playing at home. The Jets take on the Dolphins, while the Eagles get the Seahawks. Those were two of the top three defenses in the fewest passing yards allowed last year. Smith is a good play in Week 16 at Tennessee and has a home tilt against the Steelers in Week 17.
#11 Kirk Cousins (MIN) + Jared Goff (DET) (avg. 19.4 pts/week)
This is a pairing that I liked so much that I did a deep dive on my Familia FFB blog and YouTube page. The reason for the intrigue was the immense home/road splits for Cousins (ADP: QB12) and Goff (ADP: QB16) last year. In nine home games, Goff threw for 2,472 yards and 23 touchdowns, with just three interceptions. His 17-game projection is an insane 4,669 yards and 43 touchdowns. Cousins threw for 2,401 yards and 18 scores in nine home games for a 17-game projection of 4,535 yards and 34 touchdowns. Goff averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game in home tilts, while Cousins’ 20-point mark in Minneapolis was right behind.
The schedule makers gave fantasy players a gift by aligning things so either Cousins or Goff is at home in 13 of 17 weeks. And after Week 6, at least one of these quarterbacks is playing under a roof. Both teams’ defenses were well below average, with the Lions allowing 4,179 passing yards, 30th in the league. The Vikings were right behind at 4,515 yards. So even with some improvement, these teams figure to be in plenty of high-scoring affairs.
Goff will have to keep up with the opposition with a three-game set to open the season at Kansas City, then home games against the Seahawks and Falcons. Remember all the fantasy goodness that came from the 48-45 track meet pitting the Lions against the Seahawks last year, with Goff passing for 379 yards and four touchdowns.
The fantasy playoff weeks appear to belong to Cousins, who will have to go pass for pass with Joe Burrow in Cincinnati in Week 15, then host the Lions and Packers the next two weeks. Cousins combined for 537 yards and four touchdowns in home games against those NFC North opponents last year. Cousins found Jefferson nine times for 184 yards and a pair of scores against Green Bay.
#35 Anthony Richardson (IND) + Russell Wilson (DEN) (avg. 18.6 pts/week)
If this were an old rock album, it would be called a deep cut. Richardson (ADP: QB14) is the great unknown. He’s oozing with potential because of the greatest athletic gifts granted to a quarterback prospect, but he’s still a rookie, and we know the track record of rookie quarterbacks. Wilson (ADP: QB18), on the other hand, is in prove-it mode after a lost season. Head Coach Sean Payton has been tasked with returning Wilson to past glory.
Anything with Richardson is purely projection and dreaming of the blazing speed and rocket arm. He will have growing pains, which is a big reason why Wilson is a good bet to start the first four weeks of the season. Great matchups against the Raiders in the opener and at Chicago in Week 4 are in that opening slate for Wilson. The games against the Chiefs will spark memories of their late-season matchups when Wilson put up 26.6 and 24.6 fantasy points, respectively, against Kansas City. Wilson was responsible for six touchdowns – two on the ground – in those affairs.
If Richardson starts living up to his potential, he may get the nod more often than the six times he’s currently slated to start, though a pair of matchups against the Titans’ forgiving defense will get him into plenty of lineups. A Week 17 home game against the Raiders makes Richardson very much in play for what could be a big closer in the fantasy championship week.
Make sure to check out the QBBC tool to set the quarterback combos you want to pick in fantasy football drafts this coming season.
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