In managed season-long fantasy football leagues, there’s value in consistency at tight end. However, in best ball leagues, waiting and selecting multiple tight ends late has merit since gamers don’t have to guess which one will have a useful week. Furthermore, gamers who take three shots at late-round tight ends have the potential to hit on a breakout option for cheap. Since choosing three tight ends and waiting until the last few rounds to pick them is a common practice in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts, I’m defining a sleeper as any tight end picked after the 200th pick. With those parameters in mind, two young tight ends are exciting sleepers.
In managed season-long fantasy football leagues, there’s value in consistency at tight end. However, in best ball leagues, waiting and selecting multiple tight ends late has merit since gamers don’t have to guess which one will have a useful week. Furthermore, gamers who take three shots at late-round tight ends have the potential to hit on a breakout option for cheap. Since choosing three tight ends and waiting until the last few rounds to pick them is a common practice in Underdog Fantasy best ball drafts, I’m defining a sleeper as any tight end picked after the 200th pick. With those parameters in mind, two young tight ends are exciting sleepers.
Sleeper Tight Ends in Best Ball Formats
Musgrave is a highly regarded rookie with stellar draft capital. First, Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked him as the TE5 and the 49th prospect overall in this year’s draft class. Second, NFL.com had him as their TE1. Draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah had Musgrave as his TE4. However, Jeremiah also had him as his 39th-best prospect. And Dane Brugler of The Athletic ranked Musgrave as his TE3 and the 39th-best prospect.
PFF said Musgrave is the best athlete at the position in this year’s draft and noted he broke 20 mph at the Senior Bowl. NFL.com draft analyst Lance Zierlein’s scouting report for Musgrave was largely complimentary, and Zierlein listed Dallas Goedert as Musgrave’s NFL player comparison.
Jeremiah’s analysis said Musgrave has “elite play speed” and “he is more of a home run hitter than an option-route player at this point in his development.” And Brugler called Musgrave “an impressive size/speed athlete.”
Musgrave’s speed didn’t just show up in film analysis. It was also demonstrated in his workout metrics. In fact, Musgrave’s measurables were elite, resulting in a 9.78 Relative Athletic Score (RAS).
Musgrave’s straight-line speed could allow him to produce big plays immediately, albeit in a volatile, boom-or-bust fashion. He should also have an immediate path to the field.
Musgrave sits atop our projected depth chart at tight end for the Packers, ahead of Tucker Kraft and Josiah Degura. The projected depth chart is logical. The Packers used the 42nd pick in the draft on Musgrave and chose Kraft with the 78th pick. So, they spent more significant draft capital on Musgrave. Meanwhile, per PFF, Degura has run only 353 routes and had 50 targets, 39 receptions and 371 receiving yards in three years (including the postseason) for the Packers.
Musgrave could also carve out a meaningful role in Green Bay’s inexperienced pass-catching corps. The Packers probably won’t have a wideout on the roster with more than one year of NFL experience after final roster cuts.
Additionally, Musgrave can also benefit from Matt LaFleur’s love for multiple-TE personnel groupings. According to the nfelo app, the Packers used 12-personnel (one back and two tight ends) at the third-highest rate (37%) on first down in 2022. They also used 13-personnel (one back and three tight ends) one percent of the time on first down last season. In 2021, Green Bay used 12-personnel at a 36% clip on first down. So, between the team’s recent first-down personnel tendencies and double dipping at the position with top-80 picks in this year’s draft, it’s easy to imagine Green Bay using 12-personnel routinely this year.
Musgrave should play many snaps and has big-play potential. Those are reasons enough to fire bullets on him in best ball formats.
Likely had an encouraging rookie season after a highly productive college career at Coastal Carolina. Scott Barrett from Fantasy Points highlighted some of Likely’s most eye-catching stats in his college career and rookie season.
When given chances last year, Likely flashed his pass-catching prowess. He was a top-10 fantasy option at tight end in half-point point-per-reception (half PPR) formats in Week 8 (TE2), Week 9 (TE9) and Week 18 (TE3). Obviously, Week 18 isn’t on the fantasy football schedule in most leagues. Still, Likely’s 14.3 points in half PPR in Week 18 was tremendous. And he had more than 8.5 half PPR points four times in his rookie campaign.
Likely had his three most productive games when Mark Andrews was out or left the contest early with an injury. So, unfortunately, Likely didn’t have much fantasy utility when Andrews was healthy.
Fortunately, If things break right this year, Likely might have shown enough in his rookie season to carve out a more prominent role in the offense. Todd Monken is the club’s new offensive coordinator, replacing run-centric offensive coordinator Greg Roman.
Monken has NFL experience as an offensive coordinator for the Buccaneers (2016-2018) and the Browns (2019). He used 12-personnel on first down at top-10 rates each year and also used 13 and 22-personnel on first downs. The following table has that data laid out for easy consumption.
Monken also used multiple tight ends as an integral part of his offenses at Georgia. According to Gordon McGuinness from PFF, the Bulldogs utilized 12 personnel at a 45.0% clip during Monken's three years as the offensive coordinator at Georgia. The following table has statistics for Georgia's tight ends from 2020-2022, and the 2022 data for Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington was the most exciting.
Monken's ability to effectively use more than one tight end could thrust Likely into occasional fantasy relevance, even if Andrews is healthy all season. Although, Likely also has contingency value if Andrews misses any games.
Baltimore's new offensive coordinator is also expected to increase the club's passing rate and tempo, which would be ideal for all of the team's pass-catching weapons. And even though the team used a first-round pick on wideout Zay Flowers and signed Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor in free agency, Baltimore's wide receivers aren't infallible target hogs.
Beckham is 30 years old and returning from a lost season while recovering from a second torn ACL in his left knee. Agholor was a low-volume ancillary piece for the Patriots the previous two years after a career year for the Raiders in 2020. Flowers is an unproven rookie.
Rashod Bateman is also in the mix to headline Baltimore's receivers. Sadly, the 2021 first-round pick has played only 18 games in two years as a pro. Bateman played in only six games last season before his campaign was cut short by a Lisfranc foot injury. He's still on the recovery trail and had a cortisone shot during minicamp.
The Ravens have an intriguing collection of wide receivers, but none are sure things for success this year. If any of them fail to live up to expectations, Likely could steal playing time. And if Likely performs well enough leading up to and during the season, he could force his way onto the field. As a result, Likely is a high-upside option at tight end in best ball leagues. Gamers drafting three tight ends or an elite tight end early should round out their rosters with a 17th or 18th-round pick on Likely.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
