In fantasy football, the tight end position is not a fun one to dissect for many people because there are really only two strategies: pay or pray. You either pay up for tight ends like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews or pray that a late-round dart throw at tight end. The former, specifically the ones who drafted Kelce, has paid off major dividends in the last several years. Still, only one team can draft Kelce each year, leaving the others to scrape at the bottom of the barrel for usable tight end production.

In this article, we analyze various offenses to determine which ones help and hurt the tight end position, offering valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to gain an edge in their drafts. From personnel usage to the influence of quarterbacks and play-callers, we uncover the key factors that shape tight end performance in different NFL offenses.

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Let’s dive into the offenses that help and hurt tight end production in fantasy football leagues.

Methodology and Research

To further evaluate which offenses help (and hurt) tight ends, I wanted to explore which quarterbacks and play callers had the most influence over targeting tight ends. To do this, I created a mixed-effects model to help explain who is targeting tight ends more during their games.

The fixed effects in this model are the rate of middle-of-the-field throws, a measure of tight end receiving skill, and the rate of multiple-tight-end sets while the random effects are both the team’s primary quarterback for the game (who threw the most passes) and the team’s play caller. This model helps us divide up the responsibility for generating a higher tight end target share between a quarterback and a play caller.

The data included in training this model goes back to 2016, but each of the charts shown below is only for quarterbacks that played a significant number of snaps in 2022, along with each team’s play caller. Though the mean tight end target share added is a valuable observation, you’ll notice that several lines on each chart cross the 0% target-share-added threshold (vertical dotted line). For these players and coaches, their contribution can’t be deemed statistically significant, so we want to be most focused on the extremes (players and coaches on the top and bottom of their charts).

As you’ll notice in both the quarterback chart and play caller chart, we still haven’t fully removed the impact that having an elite tight end has on target distribution (see: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jimmy Garoppolo). So, this takes some slightly more nuanced evaluation of which quarterbacks and play caller combinations have a lot of influence on targeting tight ends.

Because there are several teams that feature a coach on one end of the spectrum and a quarterback on the other end of the spectrum, more projection is needed in terms of understanding how these teams will use their tight ends.

Offenses That Help Tight Ends

Carolina Panthers

There’s a new regime in Carolina. Frank Reich is at the helm coaching the team while the Panthers also drafted Bryce Young with the number one overall pick in April. Anecdotally, there is a sentiment that rookie quarterbacks rely on tight ends more as a safety valve while they adjust to the NFL. With Young under center this year, we could see that same phenomenon occur.

The tight ends that Carolina has rostered – Hayden Hurst, Ian Thomas, and Tommy Tremble – don’t inspire much confidence. Hurst is the only player being drafted at all right now, and he is barely going inside the top 200. Last year, Hurst recorded a 66.6 PFF receiving grade, the best season he’s had since leaving the Ravens, in addition to a career-high 603 receiving yards. I think Hurst could be a solid late-round flier to pair with another tight end if you’re going with the “pray” approach to drafting.

New England Patriots

This offseason, the Patriots’ most impactful move may have been on the coaching side as they brought in a competent offensive play-caller in Bill O’Brien to be the offensive coordinator. O’Brien last called plays in the NFL with the Houston Texans in 2020. Though his first two years only saw tight ends earning 10.7% and 12.6% of the team’s targets, tight ends were never below a 19% target share in each of his last five seasons calling plays.

Henry also noted O’Brien’s work with successful TEs in the past and his ability to communicate with players at the position

– Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) July 27, 2023

The Hunter Henry–Jonnu Smith experiment from a couple of years ago failed the Patriots, but now they’re attempting a rebranded approach. New England signed Mike Gesicki to just a one-year deal this offseason after trading Smith to the Falcons. Obviously, the potential for target cannibalization at the position is driving Mike Gesicki‘s (TE25) and Hunter Henry‘s (TE28) ADP down significantly.

My bet would be on Gesicki to handle the largest receiving role of the two as New England’s move tight end. In two seasons as a Patriot, Henry has lined up out wide just 11.1% and 10.3% while Gesicki (albeit on a different team) has lined up out wide at a 23% rate or higher in three of his five seasons. Combined, Smith and Henry totaled four end zone targets last year, so if those bump up then both Gesicki and Henry could be in for some usable tight end weeks.

Offenses That Hurt Tight Ends

Cincinnati Bengals

In the three years that Joe Burrow and Zac Taylor have been together, the Bengals haven’t allocated more than 15.7% of their targets to tight ends, and they have been in the bottom five in tight end target share each year. Over that span, the Bengals have also used 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receivers) at a 79.2% rate, second-highest behind the Rams. This makes sense given the talent they have at receiver, but it has lowered the value of tight ends on the Bengals.

This offseason, Cincinnati signed Irv Smith in free agency after losing the aforementioned Hayden Hurst to the Panthers. Smith is currently being drafted as TE18, outside the top 150 overall in Half PPR leagues. Smith hasn’t been able to put it all together quite yet and played just eight games last year after he missed the entire 2021 season due to a torn ACL.

Detroit Lions

Even though Dan Campbell is a former tight end and tight ends coach, the Lions still find themselves on the list of teams that hurt tight ends. Ben Johnson, who broke out as one of the league’s preeminent offensive coaches, finds himself on the end of play callers that stray away from targeting tight ends. Additionally, Jared Goff has been inconsistent with how often he targets tight ends. He peaked at a 25.5% rate in 2019, but has dropped in every season since, landing at 16.5% last year (the second-lowest of his career).

In April, Detroit drafted Iowa product Sam LaPorta 34th overall as the second tight end off the board. While LaPorta was a great prospect in a loaded tight end class, the lack of success that rookie tight ends have in the NFL is long documented. Since 2000, there have only been five recorded seasons of a rookie tight end scoring at least 150 PPR points in a season (which would have been good for TE14 overall last year). LaPorta’s TE19 ADP is about as high as I would want to take him given the floor is as low as anyone’s in this range.

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