In fantasy football, the running back position is perhaps the most critical to a team’s success. Each year there are great debates about the efficacy of Zero RB and Hero RB strategies, but at the end of the day, everyone needs to draft some running backs. So, understanding which teams provide the best opportunities for running backs to thrive can significantly influence fantasy success.

In this article, we analyze various offenses to determine which ones benefit and hinder the running back position, offering valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts looking to gain an edge in their drafts. From high-value touches to the influence of quarterbacks and play-callers, we uncover the key factors that shape running back performance in different NFL offenses.

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Offenses that Benefit and Hinder the Running Back Position

Methodology and Research

One big component of evaluating running back value is high-value touches (HVTs). HVTs are a stat that was introduced by Ben Gretch several years ago – they are the sum of carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line and receptions.

There has been plenty of literature in the fantasy space explaining how a target is worth more than two times as many fantasy points as a carry, which is why receptions are included in the HVT calculation. Furthermore, a carry inside the 10-yard line (also known as the green zone) is valuable for obvious reasons: it leads to more touchdowns. Below is a leaderboard of which teams gave their running backs the most HVTs per game in 2022:

Carries inside the ten are extremely noisy and are not stable year-over-year (meaning a player getting a bunch of green zone touches in one year doesn’t mean they’ll get a bunch the next year). So, to further evaluate which offenses benefit (and hinder) running backs, I wanted to explore which quarterbacks and play callers had the most influence over targeting running backs. To do this, I created a mixed-effects model to help explain who is targeting running backs more during their games.

The fixed effects in this model are quarterback scrambling rate, a measure of running back receiving skill, and a team’s game situation while the random effects are both the team’s primary quarterback for the game (who threw the most passes) and the team’s play caller. This model helps us divide up the responsibility for generating a higher running back target share between a quarterback and a play caller.

The data included in training this model goes back to 2013, but each of the charts shown below is only for quarterbacks that played a significant number of snaps in 2022, along with each team’s play caller. Though the mean running back target share added is a valuable observation, you’ll notice that several lines on each chart cross the 0% target-share-added threshold (vertical dotted line). For these players and coaches, their contribution can’t be deemed statistically significant, so we want to be most focused on the extremes (players and coaches on the top and bottom of their charts).

As a sense check, it’s good to see Tom Brady near the top of this list, given he had historically been known for targeting his running backs often (see: Leonard Fournette, James White, Shane Vereen). Meanwhile, even with scramble rate included as a feature in the model, we still see run-heavy quarterbacks (i.e., Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen) featured heavily in the bottom portion of the chart. Next up, we have the effect of play callers across the league:

As far as play callers go, there aren’t many huge trends to discern from the table above. Play callers can largely be a function of the team they’re given (at least the good ones are). So, now that we have all of the information we need let’s get into which offenses are expected to most favor and hurt running backs.

Offenses That Favor Running Backs

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos were a piping hot mess last year, there are no two ways about it. Now, they have brought in Sean Payton to help correct the ship. As recently as Alvin Kamara and going as far back as Darren Sproles and Reggie Bush, Payton-led offenses have often featured running backs as pass catchers.

Russell Wilson had never been one to target running backs, largely due to his scrambling ability and wizardry in the pocket. But last year, he hit a career-high with 23.5% of his targets going to the running back position.

In the four games before his injury, Javonte Williams racked up 22 total targets. Granted, 12 of them came in Week 1, but he had four and five in the two games following. Denver also brought in Samaje Perine as a free agent to back up Williams. Last year, Perine earned a career-high 51 targets and had a 62.7 PFF receiving grade, which was 25th among 49 running backs with at least 25 targets. These two should be more than capable of offering extra upside in PPR leagues.

Las Vegas Raiders

If you refer back to the charts above, you will notice that both Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo (the presumed starter in Las Vegas, assuming he is healthy) are near the top of their respective charts in adding running back target share. Some of the McDaniels effect is likely coming from his time with Brady under center, but the Raiders targeted running backs at a 20% clip last year in his first season as the play caller in Vegas. Furthermore, Las Vegas gave their backs just seven HVTs per game in 2022, ranking 11th-most in the league.

While this obviously bodes well for Josh Jacobs‘ continued success following a career year in targets, it will also benefit Ameer Abdullah. Last year, Abdullah ran the second-most routes among Raiders running backs. He also played on a whopping 71.8% of the team’s third-down snaps, which was among the top 10 running backs on the year. Currently, Zamir White (who only played 35 snaps across 14 games played) is the only non-Jacobs Raiders’ running back being drafted. If you’re going with a Zero RB approach in your drafts, Abdullah is a great last-round dart throw, especially in Half- or Full-PPR leagues.

New Orleans Saints

Even though the aforementioned Sean Payton is no longer with New Orleans, it’s clear he had a lot of influence on Pete Carmichael. Carmichael has been the Saints’ offensive coordinator since 2009 but only called plays for the first time last year. Obviously, having Alvin Kamara makes it easy to draw up plays that target a running back, but at least Carmichael didn’t experiment with other ideas. New Saints quarterback Derek Carr should also fit in well with Carmichael, as he has also been above-average in adding target distribution to running backs.

Obviously, there’s a potential looming suspension for the aforementioned Kamara coming after he accepted a plea deal on a misdemeanor charge for an incident that occurred during Pro Bowl weekend in 2022, meaning the felony charges will be dismissed. With that (likely) in mind, the Saints added Jamaal Williams in free agency while also drafting Kendre Miller in the third round of April’s NFL draft.

Williams has never been known as a receiving threat, as he’s only topped 40 targets in a season twice in his six-year career. More likely to take over the receiving work would be Miller. At TCU, Miller didn’t run many routes, but he had an elite 0.56 missed tackles per reception in his final season, per PFF. Most of his routes were screens and flats, but Miller has been intent on learning from Kamara and is confident he can take over the role if needed.

Offenses That Hurt Running Backs

Baltimore Ravens

For as long as Lamar Jackson has been the quarterback for the Ravens, running backs in Baltimore have struggled to be high-end fantasy producers. Mark Ingram (RB8 in 2019) is the only running back on record to be able to finish as a top 24 running back in that time. Jackson has easily been the league’s most elusive rushing threat since he took over the starting job, so it only makes sense that he would favor making a couple of defenders miss instead of dumping it off to his running backs.

That said, I currently have Dobbins ranked slightly ahead of ECR and ADP right now. Being two years removed from tearing his ACL, I am more confident that Dobbins will be able to return to his rookie-season form, during which he averaged 1.67 rushing yards over expected per attempt (2nd in the league). He’ll need to rely on this rushing efficiency to hold any sort of fantasy value because I expect running backs in Baltimore (especially with their new wide receiver additions) to continue to be low in the pecking order for targets.

Buffalo Bills

It shouldn’t be a shock that the second team on this list is another one with a quarterback that has a high scramble rate. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have hinted at him rushing the ball less this year, but there was a similar headline heading into last season, and he set a career-high in rush attempts in a season. Fewer rushing attempts (specifically scrambles) from Allen would, theoretically, lead to more targets for the running backs, but I’m skeptical that happens.

There’s another layer to the Bills, though, as they often employ a running-back-by-committee approach. When Sean McDermott first took over as head coach of the Bills in 2017, they gave LeSean McCoy a whopping 287 carries. Since then, no running back has been given more than 188 carries in a season.

Jacksonville Jaguars

This is one that I wouldn’t have thought of until building the mixed-effects model. As you can see, both Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson land near the bottom of their respective charts, indicating they tend to draw targets away from the running back position. In their first year together as a quarterback-coach pair, they targeted running backs on just 14.4% of their pass attempts (5th-lowest in the league).

Last year, Travis Etienne ranked 17th among running backs in routes-run rate at 41.8%. Regrettably, he only averaged 2.6 targets per game for a paltry 0.17 targets per route run. Jacksonville did draft Tank Bigsby who, despite what his name might suggest, ran a route on 53.1% of Auburn’s dropbacks in his final season there. But, like Etienne, Bigsby was very inefficient, with only 0.84 yards per route run (per PFF). My guess is they’ll continue to run routes, but could be distractions while Lawrence focuses on targeting Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram.

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