Last season was a relatively chalky year for individual stat leaders. Patrick Mahomes led the league in passing yards, to no surprise. The same goes for Justin Jefferson, who was last season’s top receiver with more than 1,800 yards.
There was one surprise last season, as Josh Jacobs unexpectedly won the league’s rushing title with 1,653 yards on the ground.
In this article, we’ll try to identify this year’s version of Jacobs across those three statistical categories. Here are my dark horse candidates to lead the NFL in passing, rushing, and receiving yards in 2023.
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Dark Horse League Leader Candidates
Let’s take a look at a few players who could be surprise category leaders in 2023.
Dark Horse to Lead the League in Passing Yards: Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAC)
There are quite a few quarterbacks who could theoretically lead the league in passing this season. But as far as a dark horse candidate, I’ll throw Lawrence out for consideration. Lawrence is coming off a successful sophomore campaign in which he finished ninth in passing.
In his second year under coach Doug Pederson, we could see the Jaguars rely on their franchise QB a bit more after finishing 12th in pass play percentage a year ago. Lawrence finished eighth in net yards per pass attempt a season ago, nearly two yards behind Mahomes in that category. But the arrival of Calvin Ridley could give this passing game more explosiveness as well, which could lead to more downfield shots and big plays.
As long as Mahomes and Josh Allen play a full season, it’ll be hard for any quarterback to surpass them in passing yards. But Lawrence certainly has a shot if he takes another step in year three.
Dark Horse to Lead the League in Rushing Yards: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Stevenson finished 13th in rushing yards last season, posting 1,040 yards on only 210 attempts. The third-year pro was highly efficient in 2022, averaging five yards per carry. The workload was the only issue for Stevenson, who proved he was capable of being one of the best backs in the league last season.
But there’s good news for Stevenson and anyone looking to invest in him in fantasy this season: Damien Harris, his primary threat to touches, is now in Buffalo. Harris accounted for 106 rushing attempts last season, which put a significant dent in Stevenson’s fantasy ceiling. If 50 of those freed-up touches go to Stevenson, he could deliver an enormous season even if his efficiency goes down slightly with more usage.
Bill O’Brien now heads the offense in New England. And it’s worth noting that from 2014-20, O’Brien’s tenure as head coach of the Houston Texans, the Texans finished in the top half of the NFL in run play percentage in all but his final season at the helm.
If the Patriots can commit to Stevenson as their bell cow back, then the sky is truly the limit.
Dark Horse to Lead the League in Receiving Yards: Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Garrett Wilson finished 15th in the league in receiving yards as a rookie wide receiver, with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White throwing him the ball. The upgrade at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers in town is enough reason alone to love Wilson in his sophomore campaign. But there’s more reason to get excited about the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Wilson put up 1,103 receiving yards despite finishing 64th with an average of 7.6 yards per target. For comparison’s sake, Jaylen Waddle led all receivers in that category at 11.6 yards per target and finished seventh in receiving yards. Wilson also only caught 56% of his targets a season ago, which feels more attributed to poor play under center. He also had just 384 yards after the catch.
With Rodgers at the helm, everything should be elevated for Wilson. Not only will he be working with a more accurate and efficient quarterback, but he’ll also likely benefit from more downfield shots. If Nathaniel Hackett can find better opportunities to scheme Wilson open, then the YAC should only increase this season.
Wilson has the talent to be the next breakout stud at the position, and even a slight improvement in his situation should help him reach that lofty ceiling.
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