This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.
The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List
Trevor Richards (RP – TOR)
Richards has enjoyed some solid seasons out of the bullpen in the past, though the 30-year-old’s never been quite this effective in terms of missing bats.
Entering play Monday, the right-hander was striking out 13.69 batters per nine frames in 47.1 innings, which is on track to be a career-high. Prior to 2023, the right-hander’s previous best was 11.53 in 2022.
Elsewhere, his overall whiff rate (38.1%) and chase rate (38.3%) are higher than they’ve ever been. And they’re not just quality numbers where the veteran’s career is concerned, they’re decidedly very good where the rest of the league is concerned too.
Richards sits in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate (37.1%). His chase rate is in the 100th percentile league-wide.
Overall, the former Rays reliever is pitching to a 3.04 ERA and a 3.77 FIP in 47.1 innings this season, adding a pitcher win and 72 strikeouts while allowing 19 walks in the process. He has surrendered eight home runs on the season, good for 1.52 per nine frames. That, and a 10.9 percent barrel rate certainly aren’t ideal, but the bat-missing and late-inning upside are too significant to ignore here.
Not only has Richards been an elite bat-missing option with his changeup and four-seamer pairing, but there’s also a chance he could be in the mix for ninth-inning work in Toronto.
Of course, Jordan Romano remains the top ninth-inning option for the American League East club when healthy. However, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson on July 11, Romano reportedly “left the All-Star Game tonight with ‘left lower back tightness’, the #BlueJays say.”
Per another tweet from Matheson, this one on July 15, Romano reportedly wasn’t available to pitch in Toronto’s game that day. According to Matheson, the reliever “underwent an MRI that came back clean, Schneider says. It’s just some ‘soreness’ which they’ll manage day-to-day from here. #BlueJays:”
It’s certainly a situation to monitor moving forward, though it’s worth noting that in the three games since the All-Star break – games in which Romano hasn’t pitched – Toronto has turned to Yimi Garcia and Erik Swanson for a save opportunity each, though in different types of situations. Garcia’s was a full inning while Swanson entered for a one-out save to prevent a situation that included a 7-2 lead entering the ninth inning from getting out of hand.
Both relievers have generally been solid this season on the mound, though Garcia is sporting a 4.42 ERA and a 3.52 FIP, while Swanson is sporting a 4.56 ERA and a 4.34 FIP in his last 23.2 innings dating back to May 16.
Neither has been quite as effective as Romano though, and if this develops into a committee-like situation if the closer misses any more time, Richards is certainly a name to watch.
Gregory Santos (RP – CWS)
Sticking with American League relievers not currently in a closing role, we switch to the Chicago White Sox’ Gregory Santos.
The 23-year-old has enjoyed a breakout season so far, with a 2.66 ERA and a 2.44 FIP in 47.1 innings for the American League Central club. And while he doesn’t quite have Richards’ bat-missing metrics, he’s been elite in terms of limiting mistakes.
Santos currently ranks in the 92nd percentile in walk rate (5.0%) and the 100th percentile in barrel rate (0.7%). Or, put another way, he’s allowed just 10 walks and one barrel in 47.1 innings.
And while his strikeout numbers aren’t elite from a surface-level standpoint, with just 8.75 punch outs per nine frames, the right-hander is sporting an excellent 34.7% chase rate (95th percentile) and a solid 29.7% whiff rate (77th percentile). With a 13.4% swinging strike rate, it’s entirely possible that Santos could see a slight uptick in strikeouts at some point this season.
And while that, plus quality ERA and WHIP production, is certainly worthy of an addition from a fantasy standpoint – at least in saves+holds leagues or leagues with 14 or more teams – it’s Santos’ ninth-inning potential that makes him someone to pick up from waivers now.
Of course, this is all purely speculative, but if the White Sox trade away veterans, particularly in the team’s bullpen, Santos would seem like an ideal candidate to step into a ninth-inning role.
It should also be noted that Chicago’s ninth-inning options haven’t been entirely effective this season.
Seven different White Sox relievers have logged a save this season, including Kendall Graveman and Reynaldo Lopez, who’ve accounted for 12 of the White Sox’ 18 saves. Both have ERAs approaching 5.00 at 4.99 and 4.77, respectively. Keynan Middleton, who has been decidedly more effective, with a 3.00 ERA and a 3.92 FIP in 33 innings, only has a pair of saves but (speculatively speaking) could be a trade candidate considering he’s a free agent after the season, per Spotrac.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week
Taj Bradley (SP – TB)
Bradley appeared in this column as someone to add ahead of time in redraft leagues earlier this year. And while he’s certainly still someone to consider in redraft leagues, there might not be a better time to acquire or add the right-hander in dynasty formats than right now.
The rookie started the year in fine form, pitching to a 3.86 ERA and a 2.69 FIP in his first 10 starts spanning 49 innings. Perhaps most crucially, he showcased elite bat-missing ability, with 71 strikeouts and a 12.3% swinging strike percentage during that span.
Still a rookie, Bradley has struggled in his three starts since then, allowing 22 hits, 16 earned runs, six home runs, and four walks in a combined 12.1 innings while striking out nine total batters.
Because of that three-run stretch, Bradley’s ERA and FIP for the season jumped to 5.43 and 3.99, respectively. And while the struggles certainly weren’t ideal, those three starts came against Atlanta, the Mariners, and the Diamondbacks. Of those three clubs, Atlanta (third) and Arizona (seventh) both ranked in the top 10 in the league in runs scored.
The right-hander is also still a rookie, and it’s entirely possible this is just a blip on the radar where his career is concerned. No rookies are immune to struggles and down stretches, and Bradley still possesses the immense upside to be a fantasy difference-maker moving forward.
Even with the three recent starts, Bradley’s 111 Stuff+ (per FanGraphs) is still the eighth-best in the league among starters with a minimum of 60 innings pitched, tied with teammate Shane McClanahan and just ahead of pitchers like Kevin Gausman, Blake Snell, Framber Valdez, and Clayton Kershaw. Looking purely at Stuff+ for four-seamers, Bradley’s 135 Stuff+ for his four-seamer trails only Spencer Strider (per FanGraphs) among starters with 60 or more innings.
Did I mention that Bradley’s curveball has held batters to just a .216 xwOBA and is sporting a 51.2% strikeout rate? Or that his changeup owns a 41.4% whiff rate? He’ll be just fine.
If there’s anyone in your league panicking about Bradley’s recent few starts and thinks the early-season success was more on the fluky side of things, now’s the time to make a trade. Or better yet, if someone dropped the Rays starter, go add him now. Like seriously, right now.
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