Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List: Ronny Mauricio, Andres Munoz (Week 15)

This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.

The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.

The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List

Ronny Mauricio (SS – NYM)

Ronny Mauricio seems poised to be called up by the New York Mets, one way or the other, at some point this season.

Of course, this is all entirely speculative, but there are a few fairly straightforward pathways to Mauricio getting to make his Major League debut for the National League East club this summer.

One is to provide a jolt to the Mets lineup much in the same way Francisco Alvarez has.

Entering the All-Star break, 14 teams scored more runs than New York. Looking more recently – since June 1, to be exact – and that number jumps to 17.

The second route could be as a call-up once New York has traded away some veterans. Although, again, the prospect of the Mets operating as a seller at this season’s trade deadline is purely speculative. However, the team is six games below .500, 18.5 games back of Atlanta in the National League East, and seven games out in the Wild Card. There are as many teams (four) between them and the last Wild Card team as there are teams between them and the worst record in the National League.

While Mauricio isn’t quite the power threat that Alvarez is, he does have the potential to impact the game and contribute for fantasy managers in a number of different ways, particularly in terms of home runs and stolen bases.

The 22-year-old collected 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases in 541 plate appearances for the Mets’ Double-A affiliate in 2022 and has logged 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 345 plate appearances in his first stint at Triple-A this season.

Though it should be noted, in his write-up of the Mets’ top 37 prospects for FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen wrote the following about Mauricio:

“He is a huge-framed, switch-hitting shortstop with power from both sides of the plate and a rocket arm, but his swing decisions are often so reckless that even though he’s coming off a 20/20 season at Double-A, he’s still an extremely volatile prospect.”

Longenhagen also wrote that Mauricio “had a chase rate around 40% in 2022” and that “His secondary pitch recognition is not good.”

All that probably make a repeat of some of his 2023 metrics in Triple-A – which include a .302 average and a .348 on-base percentage – in the Majors unlikely. Still, there’s more than enough fantasy upside to warrant an add ahead of a potential call-up here, given the home run and stolen base upside.

FanGraphs gives Mauricio the following current and future grades:

Raw Power: 60/70
Game Power 40/55
Run: 40/40

And while the 22-year-old’s run number certainly isn’t ideal, he’s been productive on the basepaths in Triple-A. The MLB’s new rules should also help him chip in with stolen bases.

Plus, as an added bonus, Mauricio has seen time at second base and in left field, providing potential fantasy versatility for when he does make his Major League debut.

Andres Munoz (RP – SEA)

Paul Sewald is still dominating the save chances in Seattle this season, but it only seems like a matter of time before Andres Munoz becomes fantasy relevant again.

One of fantasy baseball’s best ancillary save options down the stretch – and for most all of the season, really – Munoz logged a 2.49 ERA and a 2.04 FIP last season. That was while registering 13.29 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.08 walks allowed per nine frames and 0.69 home runs surrendered per nine innings. His BABIP finished at .297 BABIP.

All that came in 65 innings of work for the American League West franchise.

So far, due to injury, Munoz has been limited to only 16 innings so far this season. However, in those 16 innings, his numbers look eerily similar to what he did last season.

His 2023 numbers include a 2.81 ERA, a 2.03 FIP, 13.50 strikeouts per nine innings, 2.81 walks per nine frames and 0.56 home runs surrendered per nine innings. His BABIP? It’s currently at .294.

An elite option in 2022 for balancing out, or bringing down rather, weekly ERA and WHIP totals for fantasy managers, Munoz should once again fill a similar role in 2023. Only this time, he should be a much better option for ancillary saves.

The right-hander already has a save to his name this season despite the time missed due to injury. He only logged four in 2022 and is arguably fantasy baseball’s best backup closer should injury or ineffectiveness strike Sewald.

In essence, Munoz brings a lot to the table – the weekly ratio help, ancillary saves and chipping in with a decent number of strikeouts – with the potential for more if he ever stepped into the closer’s role.

Seattle has a history of using something of a committee approach before. So even if Munoz can get even a third or a half of the save chances for the Mariners, he has the potential to be a top-15 option at the position.

If the right-hander was dropped in your league or is still available on the waiver wire after missing time earlier this season due to injury, now’s the time to add him.

Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week

Andrew Abbott (SP – CIN)

Perhaps lost in the shuffle of the numerous Cincinnati Reds players enjoying strong fantasy campaigns – see Elly De La Cruz, Alexis Diaz, Hunter Greene, Jonathan India, Matt McLain and others – is Andrew Abbott’s quietly (and decidedly) very good start to his Major League career.

The 24-year-old has made seven starts so far for the National League Central club, totaling 41.2 innings in the season’s first half. He’s pitched to a 2.38 ERA and a 3.86 FIP so far, which is obviously an encouraging sign moving forward. Still, it’s what the left-hander is doing from an underlying metrics standpoint that makes him such an intriguing option long-term for fantasy managers in dynasty formats.

It’s still a small sample size, but Abbott has shown plenty of bat-missing ability so far, with a 28.9% strikeout rate (82nd percentile) and a 26.9% whiff rate (57th percentile) so far.

While his slightly elevated barrel rate (11.5%) might scare some off, it’s worth noting that of the 12 total barrels the left-hander has allowed, five of them came in a road start in Milwaukee just before the All-Star break.

Pitching in Cincinnati for half his starts certainly isn’t ideal from a fantasy perspective for the 24-year-old, but his ability to miss bats and limit hard contact should more than makeup for that. Despite the barrel rate, opponents have managed just a .289 xwOBA against Abbott.

Among qualified pitchers who are full-time starters this year, only 13 have held opponents to a lower xwOBA than Abbott.

You’ve probably heard of almost all of them: Jacob deGrom, Bryan Woo, Drew Rasmussen, Joe Ryan, Zach Eflin, Pablo Lopez, Spencer Strider, James Paxton, Eduardo Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Dustin May, Zack Wheeler and Nathan Eovaldi.

Dynasty MLB Waiver Wire MLB Weekly Advice Ronny Mauricio Francisco Alvarez Andres Munoz Paul Sewald Andrew Abbott Elly De La Cruz Alexis Diaz Hunter Greene Jonathan India Matt McLain Jacob deGrom Bryan Woo Drew Rasmussen Joe Ryan Zach Eflin Pablo Lopez Spencer Strider James Paxton Eduardo Rodriguez Logan Gilbert Dustin May Zack Wheeler Nathan Eovaldi