This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.
The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List
Matt Mervis (CHC)
Matt Mervis already got a bit of an extended look in the Majors with the Cubs this season. However, he hit just .167 with a .242 on-base percentage and three home runs in 99 plate appearances.
And while the surface-level metrics were hardly ideal, the 25-year-old did register a 13.8% barrel rate and a 50.0% hard-hit rate prior to being optioned to Triple-A.
Mervis has certainly found more success in the minors, hitting .290 with a .408 on-base percentage and eight home runs in 152 plate appearances for Chicago’s Triple-A affiliate this season. In 578 plate appearances split between the National League Central Club’s Advanced-A, Double-A, and Triple-A teams last year, Mervis hit .309 with a .379 on-base percentage, 36 home runs, and a pair of stolen bases.
And while he’s yet to put it all together in the Majors, the underlying data from his early-season showing (albeit in a smaller sample size) is encouraging.
Now all the first baseman needs is another extended opportunity in the Majors, and he’ll likely once again be a priority add in most fantasy leagues.
Speculatively speaking, that extended opportunity could come later this summer.
The Cubs are seven games out of both the National League Central and the second Wild Card place as of writing. Three teams currently sport a better record than the club in the division, while seven teams sport a better record in the overall Wild Card chase.
Admittedly, Chicago does sport a +22 run differential, but the club entered play Tuesday having lost seven of eight. Another extended losing streak could, in theory, make them sellers come the trade deadline.
If that’s the case and Chicago does trade some veterans (again, this is all purely speculative), Mervis would potentially stand to benefit from a fantasy standpoint with more playing time if the Cubs want to evaluate him more ahead of the 2024 season.
Logan Allen
Similar to AJ Smith-Shawver in last week’s column, Logan Allen was recently optioned to the minors.
The Cleveland Guardians starter was optioned to the minors as the American League Central club opted to go with Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill, Gavin Williams, and Tanner Bibee in the rotation.
Allen, for his part, turned in consistent quality results in his first 12 starts in the Majors prior to being optioned. The 24-year-old logged a 3.47 ERA and a 3.72 FIP in 62.1 innings, adding 63 strikeouts, 24 walks, and three pitcher wins in the process.
And while he didn’t post eye-popping underlying metrics – Allen ranked in the 48th percentile or lower in K% (48th), barrel rate (47th), BB% (42nd), whiff rate (38th), xwOBA (36th), and xBA (29th) – the right-hander got results.
That was in part thanks to his four-seam fastball, which posted a -6 differential. Among qualified, full-time starters, only 19 sport a fastball with a better run differential. Opponents have managed a .360 xwOBA against it, that’s actually a decidedly middle-of-the-pack number as far as four-seamers go.
All told, there’d probably be some regression coming if he had stayed in the Majors. Probably not too much regression, but some, especially considering the 22.9% strikeout rate, the 8.7 walk rate, a 24.1% whiff rate, a .328 xwOBA, and a .258 xBA. They aren’t a set of numbers that exactly scream sub-4.00 ERA in a pitcher.
Still, Allen was a useful fantasy option and should continue to be – even with a bit of regression – once he’s in the Majors.
Essentially, if one of your league mates dropped him, he makes for a solid stash option for fantasy managers, especially those with deeper benches or with slots for minor league players. In leagues with 12 or more teams, the right-hander is in the next rung up of pitchers above streaming options. Definitely not someone to drop to waivers, and certainly someone to start with confidence in the right matchups. Those players don’t necessarily become available on a regular basis.
If he was, in fact, dropped to waivers in your league, now’s the time to make a move.
It only seems like a matter of time before Allen returns, considering Quantrill is sporting a 6.18 ERA and a 4.91 FIP in 62.2 innings. Meanwhile, Williams has had an up-and-down first handful of starts in the Majors, turning in a 3.79 ERA and a 5.86 FIP in his first 19 innings with Cleveland.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week
Alcantara’s season in 2023 has been, in a few words, not ideal.
After two strong seasons in 2021 and 2022, the reigning National League Cy Young winner has struggled mightily to start the 2023 campaign.
- Sandy Alcantara In 2021: 205 IP, 8.80 K/9, 2.19 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9, 3.19 ERA, 3.42 FIP
- Sandy Alcantara In 2022: 228.2 IP, 8.15 K/9, 1.97 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9, 2.28 ERA, 2.99 FIP
- Sandy Alcantara In 2023: 107.2 IP, 7.44 K/9, 2.76 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9, 4.93 ERA, 3.87 FIP
It also doesn’t help that the Marlins starter is allowing opposing batters to log a .364 xwOBAcon against him, the highest number he’s ever allowed in that category in a season in which he’s thrown more than 30 innings.
In other words, his dynasty trade value is probably at its lowest right now.
Or, in other words, it’s the perfect time to try and acquire the 27-year-old.
Though truth be told, it’s not only because his trade value might be at a low point. Dig a little deeper into the metrics, and there are some encouraging numbers that might point to this only being a down year for the 27-year-old.
The reasonable FIP, in the face of a rather ugly ERA, is the most obvious metric. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
More important is Alcantara’s stuff, which while down a bit, is still decidedly very good.
- Sandy Alcantara In 2021: 120 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 107 Pitching+
- Sandy Alcantara In 2022: 118 Stuff+, 104 Location+, 107 Pitching+
- Sandy Alcantara In 2023:109 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 106 Pitching+
Pitching data via FanGraphs.
Even with the (slightly) diminished stuff, Alcantara still ranks tied for seventh in the league in Stuff+, per FanGraphs. Due to ties, only Spencer Strider, Gerrit Cole, Shohei Ohtani, Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Kevin Gausman, and Shane McClanahan have a higher Stuff+ number at the moment.
Perhaps, unsurprisingly given the quality Stuff+ numbers, Alcantara is once again getting batters to chase out of the zone at a high rate.
After posting chase rates of 33.9% and 34.7% in the last two seasons, which ranked in the 95th and 94th percentile, respectively, for league-wide context, the former St. Louis Cardinal is sporting a 33.8% chase rate so far in 2023. That metric ranks in the 92nd percentile this season.
Elsewhere, Alcantara’s fastball velocity hasn’t diminished all that much, either.
After averaging 97.8 MPH on his sinker and 98 MPH on his four-seam fastball in 2022, the right-hander is sporting average velocities of 97.4 MPH on his sinker and 97.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball.
Even if Alcantara doesn’t completely turn things around down the stretch in 2024, there’s plenty of reason to hope for bounce-back seasons in the future.
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