This weekly waiver-wire watch column is designed to help you monitor and pick up players in the coming weeks. These are the players you’ll want to add now before becoming the hot waiver commodity in a week or two. Using underlying and advanced metrics, this “watchlist” will help you get ahead of the competition in your league and reap the rewards from your pickups later.
The players could be anyone from a prospect in an ideal situation close to the Majors, a reliever in a saves+holds league, or even a starter doing well with misleading surface-level stats like ERA. They might even be hitters with quality underlying stats. Or they could be none of those types of players and entirely different.
The point is that they’ll help you find success in your fantasy league while staying ahead of the curve against your league mates.
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Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Watch List
Mason Thompson (RP – WAS)
Earlier this year, well May 23 to be exact, it was Hunter Harvey‘s name appearing in this column as someone for fantasy managers to add off waivers ahead of time for saves in case the Nationals eventually ended up trading Kyle Finnegan.
Now, things are a bit different.
While Harvey did step into the ninth-inning role, he did so while Finnegan was still on the roster. What’s more, the former Orioles hurler has since landed on the injured list with a right elbow strain.
This is all to say that Finnegan now seems, at least speculatively speaking, like a trade candidate for the rebuilding Nationals.
If Finnegan is indeed dealt to a contender come the fast-approaching trade deadline, then Mason Thompson would seem like the obvious candidate to step into the ninth-inning role.
Of course, that’s once again all speculative, but Thompson has arguably been Washington’s most effective reliever outside of Harvey this season. He’s second on the team in fWAR (0.6) among relief pitchers, and he’s third in total high-leverage appearances (17) among Nationals relievers, behind only Harvey (23) and Finnegan (21). Besides those three and Carl Edwards Jr., who is currently on the injured list and has 14 high-leverage outings this year, no other reliever in Dave Martinez’ bullpen has logged more than four high-leverage appearances.
And while Thompson does have the unideal combination of a relatively low strikeout rate at 20.4% and a reasonably high walk rate at 9.4%, his ability to limit damage in the form of barrels and hard contact with his sinker-led arsenal should lend itself well to the potential closer’s role in Washington.
Entering play Monday, the 25-year-old right-hander ranked in the 84th percentile league-wide with just a 5.3% barrel rate. Opposing batters have also managed just a 35.1% hard-hit rate and a .313 xwOBA against Thompson, metrics that rank in the 73rd and 53rd percentiles, respectively.
Save chances aren’t exactly going to be at a premium in Washington in the second half, especially if the team trades veterans like Finnegan, Jeimer Candelario, and Lane Thomas, but Thompson seems well-positioned to potentially step into the ninth-inning role post-August 1.
Ceddanne Rafaela (OF – BOS)
Despite his ability to play multiple positions – Rafaela has mostly played center field this year with some work at shortstop – there isn’t an obvious route to regular playing time in Boston at the moment, especially with Trevor Story eventually coming back. But there’s significant fantasy upside if the top prospect is able to step into the Red Sox lineup on a regular basis at some point this season.
The 22-year-old has done nothing but steal bases wherever he’s gone. He stole 19 bases in 54 games in rookie ball in 2018 and logged 23 stolen bases in 102 games at Single-A in 2021. This season, the outfielder has set a new career high, with 31 combined stolen bases in 79 games and 344 minor league plate appearances split between Double-A and Triple-A.
And with Major League Baseball’s new rule changes this year causing an increase in stolen bases, Rafaela should have no trouble continuing to steal bases if he’s called up to the Red Sox.
So far this season, Rafaela is batting .297 with a .337 on-base percentage, 12 home runs, and 31 stolen bases in 354 minor league plate appearances at the two highest levels of the minors.
And while it’s probably a bit unwise to look at a prospect purely based on their statistical production, it is worth noting that the outfielder has already connected on six home runs in only 88 Triple-A plate appearances.
The stolen base upside and run-scoring potential in baseball’s fifth-highest scoring lineup alone make Rafaela someone to keep an eye on, but if the power production continues, he’ll be a priority add off waivers should the Red Sox call him up in the event of an injury or a trade.
Dynasty Addition/Trade Target of the Week
Bobby Witt Jr. (3B, SS – KC)
This comes with an obvious preface that acquiring Bobby Witt Jr, especially in dynasty formats, will be much easier said than done.
The Kansas City infielder hasn’t exactly struggled in his second season in the league. In fact, his 2023 production is on par with his 2022 numbers, to the point where they’re nearly identical.
- Bobby Witt Jr. In 2022: .254 average, .294 on-base percentage, 20 home runs, 30 stolen bases, 4.7 walk rate, 21.4 strikeout rate, 99 wRC+.
- Bobby Witt Jr In 2023: .253 average, .292 on-base percentage, 16 home runs, 28 stolen bases, 4.9% walk rate, 20.0 strikeout rate, 96 wRC+.
However, there are two key differences here. The first is obviously time-related based on where we are in the year and season, but it’s worth noting all the same.
- Bobby Witt Jr. In 2022: 632 plate appearances.
- Bobby Witt Jr. In 2023: 429 plate appearances.
That Witt Jr. has nearly equaled some of his rookie counting stat numbers in 203 (!) fewer plate appearances is the definition of significant.
The other key difference here – and no doubt one of the reasons Witt has nearly topped his home run total from last year already in 2023 – is a significant improvement in his quality of contact metrics.
For as much as the infielder thrived from a fantasy standpoint in 2022, logging 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases, he also did so with just a .313 xwOBA, an 8.7% barrel rate and a 38.6% hard-hit rate.
Of course, improvement was probably a bit of a given over time, considering the 23-year-old’s considerable upside. That improvement is here and on full display in 2023.
So far Witt Jr. is sporting a .358 xwOBA, a 10.7% barrel rate, and a 42.9% hard-hit rate this season.
His xwOBA ranks in the 83rd percentile league-wide, and he’s sitting in the 91st percentile in xSLG (.513) and 93rd percentile in xBA (.285).
If someone in your league thinks that Witt hasn’t taken a step forward this season based on his average and on-base percentage and is a bit concerned that he might not improve considerably in the next few years, now’s the time to start trade talks. If the Royals infielder has already improved this much with his quality of contact metrics in his second year, the sky is the limit moving forward. Admittedly that kind of upside has always been a real possibility where Witt Jr.’s career fantasy potential was concerned. But the fact that he’s making this kind of contact in his second year just makes it more likely that the shortstop not only makes good on that immense potential but does so sooner rather than later.
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