Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?

Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.

The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.

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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates

Stats up to date through July 17, 2023

Players Due for Positive Regression

MJ Melendez (C/OF – KC)
Melendez has had an altogether disappointing sophomore season for the Royals to this point. However, he has come out of the All-Star break showing signs of life, and those encouraging signs actually began along with the month of July.

Over four games so far in the second half, Melendez has gone 5-for-15 with a double and a homer. He has only struck out three times and not once in three last three games. Going back to the beginning of July, following a day off on the first of the month, he has ripped five doubles to go with the one long ball while recording a 67.7 HardHit%, 16.1 Barrel%, and 96.4 mph EV. Only Matt Olson in Atlanta has produced a higher EV among qualifying hitters in July. None has a higher hard-contact rate.

Yes, Melendez has hit just .227 over 12 games this month. Though, that’s covering up a .261 xBA. He still needs to significantly improve his overall contact numbers, but his 29.0 LD% this month is a great sign, as is his 26.5 Chase%. Melendez could be a true sleeper for the second half.

Yu Darvish (SP – SD)
Going into the break, Darvish – a five-time All-Star – had looked mostly like a back-end starting pitcher for the previous couple of months. From May 17 until the end of the first half, he posted an ugly 6.59 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 22.8 K% (career 29.1%), and 10.2 SwStr% (career 12.2%) across 42 1/3 innings. Over eight starts during that span, Darvish surrendered at least three earned runs in seven of them and four or more runs five times.

Well, the Darvish of old showed back up for his first start of the second half this past Friday. He worked six frames in Philly, allowing just one run on five hits and two walks while registering nine punchouts. He also induced 13 Whiffs on 94 pitches (13.8 SwStr%) while skillfully mixing up his entire repertoire to keep the Phillies’ batters off balance throughout the outing.

Darvish did manage a 3.92 xFIP, 90.0 mph EV, and near 45.0 GB% throughout his recent eight-start slump. Those numbers provided reason to be somewhat optimistic. His dominant performance coming out of the break is even more reason.

Players Due for Negative Regression

Wilmer Flores (1B/2B/3B – SF)
After spending a couple of weeks on the IL from mid-to-late June, Flores has come back to the Giants’ lineup swinging a magic wand. Over 13 games going back to June 29, the versatile veteran has delivered five multi-hit performances while batting .395 with a 1.050 OPS across 45 plate appearances. He popped two doubles and a homer Monday in Cincinnati, giving him four doubles and two deep drives in this stretch.

So, what are the issues concerning Flores? Well, it’s simple, really. He is not going to maintain a .429 BABIP. Can he at least keep it high enough to be a valuable fantasy contributor? Possibly, but an extremely weak 82.8 mph EV and 16.2 HardHit% with only one Barrel during this 13-game hot streak suggest a severe downturn is coming.

Adrian Houser (SP – MIL)
Houser is suddenly having a solid little run. Through his last three turns in the Brewers’ rotation, he has turned in a nice 3.24 ERA and 14-to-6 K/BB ratio while working a minimum of five frames each time out. That’s pretty much where the good stops, however, as many indicators say the 30-year-old righty is simply getting lucky for the most part.

In this 16 2/3-inning span, Houser has allowed a 51.0 HardHit%, 92.2 mph EV, and 25.5 LD%, resulting in a .292 AVG against him and 1.50 WHIP. He’s missing very few bats overall (5.5 SwStr%, 87.3 Contact%), and all of that, along with his 4.79 xFIP is certainly cause for concern. It’s best not to buy in on Houser aside from being desperate in deeper leagues.

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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.