Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through July 3, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Gleyber Torres (2B – NYY)
With a meager .222/.291/.361 slash line over his last 20 games, Torres has been frustrating for fantasy purposes lately. He has at least popped a couple of homers, but the most recent one came all the way back on June 18. The Yanks’ second baseman just has not been able to catch a break despite some promising metrics.
In this stretch, Torres has recorded a 43.9 HardHit% and 90.8 mph EV along with a 26.3 LD%. That combination has resulted in a.281 xBA, but a .255 BABIP has stifled his production. Look for the two-time All-Star to get back near his career .297 BABIP soon and the overall offensive numbers to pick up accordingly.
Tyler Glasnow (SP – TB)
Glasnow has turned in a ridiculous 40.0 K% and 21.4 SwStr% in 20 1/3 innings over his last four starts. That’s the good. The bad is his 5.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in the same span. With just an 8.9 BB% and 57.0 Contact% allowed, the big righty has still somehow had to deal with a ton of traffic on the base paths. The reason for that is a ridiculous .463 BABIP.
Even with that elevated BABIP, Glasnow has been able to hold the opposition to a .284 AVG. His xBA of .244 suggests less traffic in the future. His appalling 28.6 HR/FB rate is going to come back down to Earth as well.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Jake McCarthy (OF – ARI)
McCarthy has been really cooking at the dish. The fleet-footed outfielder has hit safely in 16 of his last 19 games, delivering six multi-hit efforts while producing a .948 OPS with a homer, four triples, 12 runs, and five stolen bases across 72 plate appearances. His elite speed has certainly played a huge part in him riding an eye-popping .440 BABIP with a 20.8 LD% and 50.0 GB%. That mark isn’t close to sustainable, particularly given his 25.5 HardHit% and 87.5 EV during this run.
Clarke Schmidt (SP – NYY)
Many were fascinated with Schmidt following a solid 2022 season (mostly as a reliever) and showing some nasty stuff in spring training. That fascination had largely worn off by mid-May, as he was lugging around a 6.30 ERA through nine starts. However, things suddenly turned around beginning with a win at Cincinnati on May 19.
Including that outing, Schmidt has now given up three runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts. That has resulted in an excellent 2.55 ERA to go with a 1.20 WHIP and .242 AVG against across 42 1/3 innings. His 4.85 xFIP suggests there’s been plenty of good fortune in those numbers.
Trimming down considerably on the long balls has been a major factor in Schmidt’s turnaround. Through his first nine starts, the 27-year-old hurler allowed eight homers in 40 innings on the back of a lofty 17.4 HR/FB%. Since then, he has surrendered only three deep drives with the benefit of a 5.6 HR/FB% despite a 40.0 HardHit% and 41.5 FB%. How long can he keep this up pitching his home games at Yankee Stadium?
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
