Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted in order to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through July 24, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Elly De La Cruz (3B, SS – CIN)
As rookies are prone to do, De La Cruz has been scuffling through a significant rough patch at the plate recently. Not to worry, however, as he’s shown definite signs of busting out of it with a pair of deep drives over the past two games. It could’ve been three homers if not for a great snag by Milwaukee CF Joey Wiemer.
DEFENSIVE RUN SAVED#ThisIsMyCrew | @JWiems17 pic.twitter.com/NZSJrHA8Xm
– Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) July 25, 2023
Even during his ugly 2-for-31 skid coming out of the All-Star Break, which included 15 punchouts in 35 plate appearances (42.9 K%), De La Cruz was still absolutely crushing the baseball with a 43.8 HardHit%, 92.4 mph EV, and 43.8 LD%. That batted-ball profile should not pay off with an abysmal .125 BABIP. De La Cruz should be a big-time contributor the rest of the way.
Paul Blackburn (SP – OAK)
Blackburn turned in an impressive outing this past weekend against the Astros’ stout lineup. The 2022 All-Star lowered his season ERA from 5.48 to 5.06 after surrendering only one run on five hits and three walks while striking out five across 5 1/3 innings. Blackburn has delivered inconsistent results over his 10 outings (nine starts) so far this season, but there’s reason to believe he could be a decent fantasy option for the final couple of months of the season.
First off, Blackburn’s xERA (4.08) is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA across his 48 innings pitched this year. Much of the reason for that is his career-high 22.2 K% combined with an excellent 29.8 HardHit%. Not only is that hard-hit rate a career-best, but it’s also the lowest mark of any MLB starting pitcher that has worked at least 40 frames this season. Let’s remember that Blackburn’s home stadium is one of the league’s best pitching environments too.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Travis Jankowski (OF – TEX)
Jankowski came into this season with a career .236/.320/.310 slash line in over 1,200 MLB plate appearances. So, it’s a little difficult to take his .319/.407/.405 line seriously at age 32. That said, he does deserve serious credit for his strong contributions to the Rangers’ top-scoring offense (5.83 runs per game) so far this season, including his 15 steals (16 attempts) through 63 games.
The speed has always been there for Jankowski, but the bat, particularly what he’s done this month, has not. Over 16 games in July, Jankowski has gone 18-for-52 (.346) overall, but 16 of those hits have been singles. He has managed a .386 BABIP despite a mere 31.1 HardHit% and 87.8 mph. That is simply unsustainable regardless of how fast Jankowski gets down the first-base line.
Jose Berrios (SP – TOR)
Berrios is enjoying a nice bounce-back campaign from an incredibly disappointing 2022. The two-time All-Star is currently carrying a 3.40 ERA and 1.19 WHIP through 124 1/3 innings (21 starts), which would actually go down as the best and second-best marks of his eight-year career, respectively.
Berrios has been especially good here in July. Through four starts this month, he has cruised to the tune of a 1.93 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 23.7 K% across 23 1/3 innings. A 43.3 GB% and 16.7 LD% have helped Berrios to a .207 AVG against and .271 BABIP. However, a 41.7 HardHit% and 90.4 Z-Contact% indicate a notable uptick is on the way in those stats. A nearly 11-percent walk rate won’t help control traffic on the bases either. Berrios might be sporting a sub-2.00 ERA this month, but his 4.48 xFIP suggests he has been quite fortunate.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
