Changing things up a bit this week, the All-Star Break edition of the “Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates” article will take a close look at two well-known veterans that should both be in store for second-half rebounds.
Highlighted below will be one hitter and one pitcher, both playing their home games under the spotlight in NYC, that have not provided fantasy managers with their usual production during the first half of the 2023 MLB season.
- Weekly Trade Advice
- Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
2023 MLB Second-Half Rebounds (Fantasy Baseball)
Stats up to date through July 9.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF – NYY)
Giancarlo Stanton got in just 41 games before the All-Star break, as he was on the IL from mid-April until the beginning of June. Since returning, the veteran slugger has been unable to get locked in at the plate, limping to a .167 AVG and .620 OPS across 109 plate appearances. He has mashed five long balls in that span. Two of those came this past Saturday in his first multi-homer game of the season.
That performance should be a sign of things to come in the second half for Stanton. Over his last 10 games, he has three total home runs, resulting from a flyball rate north of 50 percent, a 48.1 HardHit%, 92.9 avg EV and 14.8 Barrel%. In addition, his would-be career-low .426 SLG on the year is covering up a much stronger .491 xSLG.
Stanton will never compete for a batting title. A .250 mark at this point would be surprising. However, his .227 xBA suggests his .203 AVG for the campaign should improve at least a bit. It’s also worth noting that Stanton is carrying his lowest K% since his N.L. MVP campaign of 2017. At age 33, he’s no longer that prime version of himself, but there is plenty of thunder left in Stanton’s bat.
Max Scherzer (SP – NYM)
Just when it appeared Max Scherzer was finding his groove with three great outings to close out June; he has been knocked around for nine runs on 11 hits (five HR) across 11 innings so far in July. Inconsistency has pretty much been the story for the future Hall-of-Fame hurler and the disappointing Mets in general during the first half.
At the break, Scherzer is lugging around a 4.31 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through 16 starts. Home runs have been the driver of that abnormally lofty ERA. He has surrendered 18 deep drives across 87 2/3 innings to this point, with 11 of them coming over his last seven starts (40.0 IP). His 1.85 HR/9 (2.48 in last seven games) and 15.5 HR/FB% are simply not going to continue, given his sub-90 mph EV and sub-40 HardHit% for the season. It’s reasonable to at least expect something closer to Scherzer’s 3.62 xERA after the break.
After being down early on, Scherzer’s strikeouts have also picked up considerably since late May. He recorded his only double-digit strikeout effort of the year back on June 7 and has punched out a minimum of seven batters in eight of his last nine starts. In that stretch, Scherzer has recorded an elite 30.6 K%, 13.7 SwStr%, 35.1 O-Swing% and 73.5 Contact%. He should, pending health, be among the second-half K leaders.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
